Nearly $3 trillion of notional stock options expire on Friday’s open expiration (OPEX day). Over half of the OPEX volume is in S&P 500 options, with the remainder in single stock options. The graph below provides details on the split between puts and calls, and the strike prices and open interest of the options. Almost […]
In Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s latest SEC disclosures, the company reported buying a nearly $1 billion stake in homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI). The purchases signal anticipation of a housing market rebound, possibly piqued by the possibility of the Fed starting a rate-cutting regime. However, while Buffett appears confident of the new home […]
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is an annual event in which central bankers from the Fed and around the world gather with policymakers, economists, and financial market participants to discuss economic issues. At times, such as today, when monetary policy is in flux, the meetings serve […]
Since 2015, the performance of the S&P 500 has been more than double that of stocks from the Euro STOXX 50 (FEZ) and the iShares developed markets ETF (EFA). However, recently the tide has turned, and the Euro and broader foreign stock indices are beating the S&P 500. The recent outperformance and significant valuation differences […]
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Edward Harrison of Bloomberg recently made the following important market observation: “buying stuff you don’t believe in creates downside risk.” Conviction is a measure of how much investors believe in their holdings. When conviction runs high, investors are often more willing to tolerate lower prices. In fact, some may add to their positions at lower prices. […]
Private equity funds often buy assets intending to sell them and realize a profit over a specific period. However, recently it’s become more common that their assets are not ready to be sold when they had initially forecasted. While the fund can hold the assets longer than expected, fundholders may demand liquidity. Instead of selling […]
Since the Pandemic, markets have been behaving abnormally. One such instance is a somewhat regular occurrence of bad market breadth. In other words, the market-cap weighted S&P 500 drives higher, yet fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. For instance, in Monday’s Commentary, we discussed the current instance of bad breadth. To wit: […]
As we share below, the Fed Funds futures market is 86.5% confident the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. However, they assign a zero percent chance that the Fed cuts by 50 bps. Powell’s trepidation to cut rates leaves traders unwilling to consider that anything more than 25bps is possible. We argue […]