President Trump is pushing to reduce the SEC’s financial reporting requirements from quarterly to semiannual reporting. He’s framing the idea in a positive light: it would allow managers to focus on the business, lower compliance costs, and fight “short-termism” in markets. In reality, it would weaken one of the hallmarks of U.S. capital markets: timely […]
The White House has turned its attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a series of steep payroll revisions rattled confidence in the government’s jobs data. President Trump fired the agency’s commissioner last month and has nominated a longtime critic to take her place, pledging reforms to improve accuracy. But the problems run deeper […]
After years of abundant liquidity, U.S. overnight funding markets are beginning to show signs of strain. Interest rates on overnight repo agreements have climbed steadily this month as the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance and the Fed continues quantitative tightening. Usage of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility, a key gauge of excess liquidity, […]
Oilfield service companies are fighting an uphill battle after years of weak demand from traditional energy producers. A relentless multi-year decline in U.S. rig counts has resulted in beaten-down oilfield service companies turning to an unlikely new customer base: technology firms racing to power AI data centers. According to the WSJ, companies such as Solaris […]
The AI infrastructure trade stagnated through August, with enthusiasm fading even after NVDA beat earnings and raised guidance. Investors shifted their focus to weakening economic data and looming Fed rate cuts, fueling the narrative that the AI boom had run its course. That changed yesterday, when Oracle reignited the trade with a blockbuster earnings call. […]
Main Street optimism edged higher in August, as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8. That reading sits above the long-term average of 98 but missed the consensus estimate of 101. Stronger sales expectations led the improvement, with a net 12% of owners anticipating higher real sales volumes. This represents a six-point jump […]
The August jobs report clarified what many investors already suspect: the U.S. labor market is stalling. Outside of healthcare and social assistance, private-sector job creation has nearly flatlined this year. So far in 2025, the economy has added an average of 74,000 private-sector jobs per month. Stripping out the ~64,000 monthly additions from healthcare jobs, […]
Another round of quarterly earnings reports has come and gone, and once again, many companies beat profit expectations. Yet a glance at the graph below from The Wall Street Journal, showing that retail sales have been flat excluding inflation, suggests that the ways in which companies are growing their earnings must be changing. The Wall […]
The Fed has cut the Fed Funds rate by 1% since late 2024, and the presumption from many market participants is that the Fed has made policy less restrictive. Technically, they are somewhat correct. Banks and other financial institutions that borrow over very short periods have seen their borrowing costs decline due to the Fed’s […]