Daily Market Commentary

Nvidia stock fell on Thursday after Jensen Huang resigned as CEO, president, and board member, effective immediately. Shares plunged as much as 14% at the open before buyers stepped in. The stock closed down 4.3% at $166.19 on more than double the prior day’s volume. Nvidia stock now sits nearly a third below its October […]

SoftBank reported a 1.1 trillion yen loss, roughly $7 billion, for the three months through September. As we share below, courtesy of ZeroHedge, its credit default swaps are sitting at a four-year high, revealing some investor angst. Beyond share and debt holders of SoftBank, we think its financial situation should interest all investors, because SoftBank […]

Nvidia is closing in on $175 a share, roughly 25% below its record high and the same price it was at in July 2025. Since July 2025, its sales and EPS have both grown by over 100%. Further, the stock is trading well under both its 50- and 200-day moving averages. At that price, Nvidia […]

Nvidia opened down by roughly 5% on Monday after it was disclosed that its CEO, Jensen Huang, had an affair with a woman identified by US officials as a Chinese intelligence asset. While Huang admits to the relationship, the allegations that she was a spy are unproven, and Nvidia says no company or security information […]

In our new version of SimpleVisor, we added a liquidity gauge. The algorithm behind the gauge uses credit spreads, overnight borrowing conditions, bank reserves, the Fed balance sheet, and dollar and yield trends and volatility. The model provides a quick, easy way to gauge liquidity and determine whether it’s tightening or loosening. Because all assets […]

Oracle has repurchased roughly $96 billion of stock since 2019. That tide is turning. As we wrote in Oracle Sells Cheap Stock, they are now sellers, issuing $10 billion in equity, on top of $19.9 billion already issued between February and August. The recent switch from buyer to seller lets us once again highlight the […]

Markets traded roughly 2% lower late Tuesday night, led lower by the Nasdaq, as results pointed to the Democrats taking Congress. The next morning, markets reversed course, with the S&P 500 opening about 1% higher. That is a three-point round trip in twelve hours, on identical information. This short missive focuses on patience, but first […]

On Monday, Oracle filed to sell $10 billion of common stock and $10 billion of debt. The stock fell roughly 8% after disclosing it would offer the new shares at an 11% discount to the current price. Oracle’s free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026, so it must fund AI data center […]

A reader asked: “You have said many times that gold has a strong negative correlation with real yields. If that is true, why did precious metals get hammered (last Friday) when yields were lower on the day?” Our model shows that gold tends to trend opposite to real yields (the yield on TIPS) over long […]

ZeroHedge carried a line this week from Goldman Sachs’ Delta One desk worth consideration: The point at which hyperscalers shift from needing more capacity at almost any cost to optimizing returns on what they’ve already built is the one I’d really worry about. What happens when hyperscalers’ spending on data centers slows? To help you […]

“The Committee will deliver price stability.” That promise has appeared in the FOMC statement in each of Warsh’s first three FOMC meetings. It deserves scrutiny because the Fed doesn’t usually make promises. Typically, the Fed Chair and FOMC describe economic and financial conditions and then state intentions. They tend to be shy about making promises […]

The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since June 1, but beneath the surface, a stealth bear market, driven by a series of significant value vs. growth rotations, has significantly impacted many S&P 500 members. Over the last five months, the S&P 500 is up about 1%, yet at some point during the period, 182 S&P […]