1,316 results found
Daily Market Commentary
A battle is raging in the Halls of Congress between the banks and the crypto industry. The spark was a judgment by the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, which recommended that stablecoins be allowed to pay interest to their holders. As a result of the Genius Act, passed almost a year ago, stablecoins are […]
Economics
That article digs into the plumbing behind oil shocks and recession, and exposes why, over the years, I've learned to distrust the loudest voices in the room. Right now, some of the most prominent macro commentators, the "Persistent Purveyors of Doom," are making a variation of the same argument:
Daily Market Commentary
As sentiment shifts from a Fed rate-cutting forecast to one that now sees a chance of a rate increase, a potentially powerful short squeeze setup might be emerging in the Treasury market. Heading into the Iran conflict, speculative short positions in TLT and Treasury futures were near historically elevated levels, reflecting a broad consensus that […]
Daily Market Commentary
Dario Perkins of TS Lombard wrote a piece titled “How to Respond to Oil Shocks.” His analysis draws on the Fed’s history to address how it should respond to today’s oil shock. While researching Fed transcripts from the 1990 Gulf War, he discovered a proposal by Don Kohn, senior Fed staffer, that offers a solution […]
Daily Market Commentary
Expected and historical (realized) volatility are sending investors a puzzling signal. Because of the Iran conflict, intense oil price swings, and rising interest rates, the VIX, or implied volatility (what options markets are pricing in as future fear), is elevated. However, actual realized volatility has been much more subdued. That gap between the VIX and […]
Economics
The fiat currency collapse narrative is one of the most emotionally satisfying arguments in all of financial punditry. It feels intellectually rigorous, draws on genuine history, and speaks to deep and legitimate anxieties about government overreach, monetary recklessness, and the long-term consequences of unlimited debt creation.
Invest
Our article title is certainly scary. The question we pose has become a hot topic following the release of “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” by Citrini Research. While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we can distill both optimistic and pessimistic views into two straightforward questions. To better understand how […]
Daily Market Commentary
According to a recent analysis by the Wall Street Journal, corporate treasurers are fundamentally shifting how they approach the capital markets to navigate record-breaking supply. Rather than offering debt in monolithic blocks, firms are increasingly utilizing multiple corporate debt tranches to better manage investor demand. This strategic shift has pushed the average number of pieces […]
Invest
The Fed is governed by its dual Congressional mandates of price stability and maximum employment. At times, however, the Fed throws these mandates out the window to protect the financial system. With liquidity and credit stress in the private credit market rising, we must consider whether the Fed might once again ignore its mandates to […]