Daily Market Commentary Hedge Funds Sell, Retail Buys: Whose The Smart Money? Blog Griffin May Be Right About AI. The Timing Could Be Very Wrong. Daily Market Commentary The Market’s Biggest Buyer Is Stepping Back Bull Bear Report Stock-Bond Correlation: Oil Broke The Hedge. Oil Will Fix It. Daily Market Commentary Meta Splits: The Buyback Machine Shifts To Reverse Blog Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites? Daily Market Commentary Why Small Caps Have Recently Traded Like A Bond Proxy Blog Are Bonds Pricing In A Fed Policy Mistake? Daily Market Commentary Neoclouds And Hyperscalers: Same Concept, Different Risks Daily Market Commentary The Misleading Tech Sell-Off
Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Tuesday — October 27, 2026
Houston, Texas
Search Results

lance roberts

1,316 results found

Economic Decline Gains Momentum Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 year ago

Economic Decline Gains Momentum

This past week, two reports confirmed the economy is slowing. First, there was the weak GDP report, which showed growth of roughly one percent, after discounting the impact of the trade deficit. Secondly, while the employment number was higher than expected, the job growth trend is also slowing. However, those reports should have tempered market enthusiasm as they reduced hopes for Fed rate cuts. However, the market pushed higher as investors raced to jump back into "risk assets" as the market cleared initial resistance at the 20-DMA and reversed all of the "Liberation Day" losses.

Lance Roberts 20 min read
Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility

The market rallied above the 20-DMA this past week as investors found some "silver linings" to the ongoing tariff dispute. Despite China saying "no negotiations" had started with the U.S., comments from both President Trump and Scott Bessent suggested that the Administration would "be nice" to China and that a "very good deal" could be done between the two countries. As we have noted previously, given the more extreme oversold condition of the market, any "good news" would allow investors to push stocks higher.

Lance Roberts 20 min read
Is Risk Off Positioning Signaling A Market Low? Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Is Risk Off Positioning Signaling A Market Low?

This week, the market was hit following a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in which he stated that the administration's tariffs could spark "higher inflation and lower growth." If that sounds familiar, it should. In 2021, Powell noted that inflation would be transitory as the money supply exploded by 42%. He was wrong then and is likely wrong again by fixating on hypothetical tariff shocks while ignoring the deflationary "red flags" from falling oil prices, slowing consumption, declining savings rates, and rising delinquencies.

Lance Roberts 18 min read
Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning? Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?

Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. That battle persisted this week as Trump raised tariffs on China to 104%, and China then retaliated with a further tariff increase of 84%. However, as we said last week, any good news would cause the market to rally sharply. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-pause on the full effect of new tariffs. Interestingly, the same headline sent stocks surging on Monday but was quickly deemed "fake news" by the White House. I suspect that Monday was a "leak" by the White House to test the market response, and President Trump kept that announcement handly to stave off a further decline in the markets. Whatever the reason, the markets needed the break. Here is Trump's full statement:

Lance Roberts 21 min read
The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market

Last week, we noted that it would not be uncommon for the market to retest recent lows. That is what happened on Monday morning before rallying sharply off that level. However, that rally was short-lived as President Trump's "Liberation Day" on Wednesday afternoon liberated the market from its previous three-day gains. We will discuss the impact of that announcement further in today's commentary, but let's start with just the technical backdrop.

Lance Roberts 20 min read
Personal Savings: An Unpolitical Sentiment Gauge Daily Market Commentary
— Daily Market Commentary · 2 years ago

Personal Savings: An Unpolitical Sentiment Gauge

Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the vast divergence in the economic sentiment of Democrats versus Republicans. In the piece, we wrote: “Democrats think today’s economic outlook is worse than during the peak of Covid and the financial crisis of 2008. Sentiment is tricky to convert into an economic forecast. Sometimes, sentiment is bad, but consumers continue to […]

RIA Team 5 min read
Sellable Rally Or “Buy The Dip” Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Sellable Rally Or “Buy The Dip”

The market tried to muster a rally this week, and we are beginning to see early signs of a bottom forming. However, on Friday, the impact of tariffs and a slighter, hotter-than-expected PCE print sent markets tumbling. The good news is that the market remains on a buy signal, with an improvement in both money flows and relative strength. However, those improvements may be fleeting, with the market failing its first resistance test at the 200-DMA and decisively breaking below the recent uptrend. The current market dynamics are tenuous at best.

Lance Roberts 15 min read
The 10-Immutable Laws Of Money Invest
— Invest · 2 years ago

The 10-Immutable Laws Of Money

There are 10 immutable laws of money. Money – we all want it, but few of us are willing to sacrifice to get it. Those that have it generally don’t understand it, and those that don’t have it come up with excuses why they can’t get it. If this sounds confusing – it is. For […]

Lance Roberts 22 min read
Is The Correction Over? Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 years ago

Is The Correction Over?

The market tried to muster a rally this week, and we are beginning to see early signs of a bottom forming. As shown in the chart below, while bumpy, volatility has fallen below 20, relative strength has improved, and momentum is turning into a buy signal. Furthermore, money flows are also beginning to reverse, suggesting a near-term bottom may be in.

Lance Roberts 13 min read