1,313 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Recent surveys of labor sentiment point to potential problems. For instance, last week, we shared the New York Fed consumer expectations survey, which showed that more people fear being unemployed in the next four months than at any time since 2014. Furthermore, the University of Michigan survey section regarding expected changes in household income is […]
Invest
The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy. Short- and long-term yields have recently fallen, with short-term maturities leading the charge. The changes result in what bond traders call a bull steepening […]
Daily Market Commentary
Peter Schiff tweeted the following in regards to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI): The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index ‘unexpectedly’ plunged to minus 0.34, its lowest since April 2020, when the economy was initially shut down by the COVID pandemic. Peter’s commentary is undoubtedly concerning. However, if you examine the CFNAI data […]
Daily Market Commentary
Recently, Kamala Harris proposed that if elected, she would implement a ban on price gouging for food and groceries. Her goal is to lower inflation, as food prices have risen by about 20% over the last four years. The Harris campaign says the price gouging measure sets “clear rules of the road to make clear […]
Daily Market Commentary
Unlike yesterday’s cooler-than-expected PPI report, CPI was right on the screws. As expected, CPI and CPI core rose 0.2% for the month. On a year-over-year basis, they run 2.9% and 3.2%, respectively. The data pretty much locked the Fed into a 25bps ease at the September meeting, as Nick Timiraos states in today’s Tweet of […]
Invest
A recent article co-authored by Stephen Miran and Dr. Nouriel Roubini, aka Dr. Doom, accuses the U.S. Treasury Department of using its debt-issuance powers to manipulate financial conditions. They liken recent Treasury debt issuance decisions to stealth QE. Per the first paragraph of the article’s executive summary: By adjusting the maturity profile of its debt […]
Daily Market Commentary
The graph below from Bianco Research shows a stunning change in sentiment among stock market newsletter writers. The top graph shows that on July 23rd, newsletter writers were extremely bullish. In fact, such a high level of bullish optimism has only been recorded twice since 1990. The Investor’s Intelligence survey of newsletter writers fell to […]
Daily Market Commentary
Starting with a special video on Monday morning and our Daily Market Commentaries throughout the week, we continually updated readers on the excessive volatility in the markets. We wanted to stress that the volatility was primarily a function of the yen carry trade and much less other daunting issues such as the recent unemployment report, […]
Daily Market Commentary
According to the latest JOLTs report from the BLS, the number of job hires has fallen back to levels from 2017. Despite the rate of hires falling below the pre-pandemic trend, the labor market remains relatively strong. Why is this occurring? According to a Bloomberg article entitled The Labor Market Confronts the End of Pandemic-Era […]