Oppenheimer: The Risk Calculus Has Changed
It was a brutal week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 finished at its lowest close since mid-December, logging a 2.0% loss, its largest weekly decline in nearly 5 months, and now sits 3.42% off its all-time high from January 27. The headline catalyst was unmistakably geopolitical: U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the prior weekend sent shockwaves through global markets on Monday morning.
USD Stable Coins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar
A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.
Will Oil Prices Unleash A Wave Of Inflation?
Bloomberg writes: “Iran War Oil ShockThreatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation.” To be fair, the article is not as pessimistic as the title suggests. However, the fear that significantly higher, sustained oil prices will unleash a wave of inflation […]
Credit Spreads Are Widening: Omen Or No Bother?
Increasing corporate credit spreads, or a growing divergence between corporate bond yields and similar-maturity Treasury yields, can be an omen of stock market weakness. Recent troublesome defaults in the private credit markets are showing signs of spreading concern to the […]
The Passive Aggressive Market: Bogle’s Warning Came True
Since the pandemic, the line between passive investing and aggressive speculation has blurred. The current bout of speculative fervor extends beyond financial markets. For instance, we see the same impulse in the explosion of sports betting and the surge in […]
Middle East Military Conflicts And Stocks
The question for investors is how the Iranian conflict will affect the stock market. The markets’ initial reaction on Sunday was concern as the S&P 500 fell by over 1%, crude oil rose nearly 10%, and precious metals rallied. Within […]
The Financial Sector Is Under Pressure
The heatmap below, courtesy of FinViz, shows the one-month performance of the S&P 500 financial sector stocks. As shown, Berkshire Hathaway and the insurance companies are higher over the period, while the large majority of the remaining financial sector stocks […]
SaaS: Is There Opportunity In The Destruction?
A specter is haunting Wall Street—the specter of the “SaaSpocalypse.” Since the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) peaked on September 19, 2025, it has fallen roughly 30%. For context, the broad technology indexes like XLK and QQQ are essentially […]
MFS Collapses Adding To Private Credit Woes
In our February 3rd Commentary, we discussed the recent woes negatively impacting private credit funds. The concerns began last year with the bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands and continue to mount, as evidenced by the share prices of some […]