Bond bears have warned that the Treasury will overwhelm the market with debt, pushing yields much...
Upcoming Event
What You’re Being Told About Annuities is Wrong
Feb 21, 2026 at 8:00 am - 9:00 am
The ASA Staffing Index
We believe that the clearest sign of a coming recession is weakness in the labor markets. Thus far,...
As Goes Rent Goes Inflation
On a few occasions, we have shared data on the differences between real-time rent inflation versus...
Is Another Price Wage Spiral Like The 1970s Likely?
We recently published Part Two of a series comparing inflation in the 1970s to today. Part Two...
Profit Margins Are Normalizing
Since peaking in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit margin on the S&P 500 has generally...
Unemployment Claims May Not Be As Low As You Think
Last week’s initial unemployment claims were 187,000. Since 1967, there have only been 21...
Is Trueflation A Better Gauge Of Inflation?
We have frequently lamented the CPI index as its underlying prices tend to lag real-time data...
Bitcoin ETF – Buy The Rumor, Sell The Fact
The price of Bitcoin rose over 10% in the first two weeks of 2024, peaking on January 11th. Driving...
Supply Shortages Drove Inflation, Some Say
Various politicians and a Fed member have recently claimed that the recent bout of high inflation...
Credit Outlook Doesn’t Jibe With Junk Spreads
We have noted numerous times that corporate bond spreads, the yield premium versus U.S. Treasuries,...