2026 Earnings Outlook: Another Year Of Optimism
The Wall Street consensus forecast for 2026 earnings growth is strong by historical standards. Analysts are giddy and projecting another year of double-digit growth in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). FactSet’s most recent data showed an expected 2026 earnings […]
New Year’s Resolutions For 2026 – Investor Version
Every January, it happens like clockwork: you drive by gym parking lots that look like a Taylor Swift concert. Go to the store, and the salad aisles are ransacked like there’s a lettuce shortage, and half of your coworkers suddenly […]
A Bear Market Rally? Or, Just A Correction?
Assessing a bear market rally proves challenging when you experience it firsthand. Only in hindsight does the complete picture reveal itself to investors. Of course, after a bear market rally, investors tend to review their investments and speculate on what […]
“Resistance Is Futile” – For Both Bulls And Bears
“Resistance is futile” was a sentence that struck fear in the hearts of Trekkie fans during “Star Trek: The Next Generation,” specifically in both of the “Best Of Worlds” and “First Contact” episodes. In those episodes, the “Starship Enterprise” crew encountered a […]
Correction Continues – The Value Of Risk Management
Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to “buy the dip” is tempting, the technical damage is enough to warrant remaining cautious in the near term. As we have discussed, managing risk requires discipline and the emotional ability […]
The Death Cross And Market Bottoms
In financial markets, few technical patterns generate as much attention and anxiety as the death cross. This ominous-sounding term refers to a crossover on a price chart when a short-term moving average, most commonly the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), drops […]
Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet
In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market’s “early warning system.” To wit:“ “Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference […]
The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear
Last week, we noted that “nothing good happens below the 200-DMA,” and the tariff-induced market crash this week confirmed that. However, we also noted that over the last 30 years, previous failures at the 200-DMA have also often been buying […]
The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment […]