President Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook for cause. The President claims, There is sufficient reason to believe you may have made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. This is the first time in the 112-year history of the Fed that a President has fired a Fed Governor. Cook is fighting the dismissal, […]
We have written a few Commentaries over the last year describing how retail, not institutional, investors are driving markets higher. To wit, there is ample evidence that with each market dip, retail investors are not selling, instead buying unrelentingly. In May, we wrote the following: Typically, institutional investors are right; however, over the last few […]
As we noted in a recent article entitled The High Beta Melt Up: Echoes of 1999, there has been a notable change in investor preferences since the April lows. To wit: “What we do know is that, starting from the April lows, the market’s attitude toward riskier, more speculative activities has become much more intense.” […]
“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That key line from Chairman Powell’s opening speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium effectively summarizes Powell’s view on monetary policy. Simply, the change in the balance of risks since the BLS jobs revisions […]
The market seas are calm, but beneath the surface, there is some intense churning, or in market terminology, significant stock rotations. Over the last week, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were relatively flat. Such gives the appearance of a low volatility, typical late August market with little going on. However, beneath the calm of […]
Nearly $3 trillion of notional stock options expire on Friday’s open expiration (OPEX day). Over half of the OPEX volume is in S&P 500 options, with the remainder in single stock options. The graph below provides details on the split between puts and calls, and the strike prices and open interest of the options. Almost […]
In Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s latest SEC disclosures, the company reported buying a nearly $1 billion stake in homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI). The purchases signal anticipation of a housing market rebound, possibly piqued by the possibility of the Fed starting a rate-cutting regime. However, while Buffett appears confident of the new home […]
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is an annual event in which central bankers from the Fed and around the world gather with policymakers, economists, and financial market participants to discuss economic issues. At times, such as today, when monetary policy is in flux, the meetings serve […]
Since 2015, the performance of the S&P 500 has been more than double that of stocks from the Euro STOXX 50 (FEZ) and the iShares developed markets ETF (EFA). However, recently the tide has turned, and the Euro and broader foreign stock indices are beating the S&P 500. The recent outperformance and significant valuation differences […]