Dow Theory is a market tool developed by Charles Dow in the very early 1900s. Dow also created the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The basic gist of Dow theory is that market trends are confirmed when gains or record highs are established in the broader market indexes, and then confirmed by similar trends and/or record […]
Two weeks ago, Jerome Powell stated, “We may be approaching the end of our balance sheet contraction in the coming months.” In simple terms, as we wrote HERE, he is prepping the market for a quicker end to QT than was previously expected. While Powell was cryptic about why, the answer is obvious: liquidity concerns. […]
The phrase “debasing the currency” is all the rage in the media. Moreover, the debasement narrative is used to support the significant surge in gold and other precious metal prices. We have written a few articles on the subject of debasement, for example: Dollar Debasement and Debasement: What It Is and Isn’t. To help further […]
Gold and bitcoin are touted as the “anti-dollar”, or in some people’s minds, possible replacements for the US dollar. Thus, one would expect the dollar-debasement trade to benefit gold and bitcoin similarly. The reality throughout this year has not been what many would expect. For example, gold is up over 50% this year, while bitcoin […]
The chart below, courtesy of Apollo’s Torsten Slok, shows that small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed small-cap companies with positive earnings by about 30% since early April. Per Torsten: “Something remarkable is going on in the equity market. Stock prices of companies with negative earnings have in recent months outperformed stock prices of companies […]
As we approach today’s delayed CPI report, it’s helpful to look beyond government statistics to focus on a more current and robust picture of inflation. Implied Inflation: This is derived from comparing the yields of nominal Treasury securities to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The graph below (bottom left) shows that implied inflation, also known […]
In August 2025, Beyond Meat (BYND), a plant-based meat producer, took to social media to call reports of its bankruptcy “unequivocally false“. Despite the assurances, the company was floundering, and bankruptcy was a possibility. The company has significant liabilities and has lost money every year since its IPO. Adding to their woes, sales peaked in […]
Not only is the market chasing the most speculative of assets, but it is employing record amounts of leverage to do so. Traditionally, investors use margin loans to gain leverage. More recently, however, leveraged ETFs allow investors to get leverage in one package. To wit, the graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are […]
Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal wrote an interesting article (Maybe ‘Debasement’ Isn’t The Best Way To Put it), sharing his opinion on the rising popularity of the so-called debasement trade. The debasement trade logic that Joe generally debunks is growing very popular in the media, per the Bloomberg graph below. While Joe thinks the debasement trade logic […]