2026 Earnings Outlook: Another Year Of Optimism
The Wall Street consensus forecast for 2026 earnings growth is strong by historical standards. Analysts are giddy and projecting another year of double-digit growth in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). FactSet’s most recent data showed an expected 2026 earnings […]
New Year’s Resolutions For 2026 – Investor Version
Every January, it happens like clockwork: you drive by gym parking lots that look like a Taylor Swift concert. Go to the store, and the salad aisles are ransacked like there’s a lettuce shortage, and half of your coworkers suddenly […]
The Debt And Deficit Problem Isn’t What You Think
In recent months, much debate has been about rising debt and increasing deficit levels in the U.S. For example, here is a recent headline from CNBC: The article’s author suggests that U.S. federal deficits are ballooning, with spending surging due […]
Debasement: What It Is And Isn’t.
Over the past year, financial headlines continue to flood investors with doomsday predictions about the U.S. dollar. Whether it’s social media influencers waving “dollar collapse” charts or YouTube personalities warning about debasement, the noise has become deafening. The narrative is […]
Is Private Equity A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing?
In July 2007, just before the financial crisis erupted, Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince summed up Wall Street’s dangerous exuberance: “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve […]
China’s Economic Demise And Its Impact On The U.S.
Few are as candid and historically accurate as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass when identifying structural breaks in the global economy. In a recent interview, Bass painted a grim but telling picture of China’s economic condition, warning: “We are witnessing […]
The Fed’s “Transitory” Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook
In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation “transitory.” Critics argued that the Fed’s failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, […]
The Dollar’s Death Is Greatly Exaggerated
The narrative surrounding the “dollar’s death” as the world’s reserve currency has been on the rise recently. However, this happens whenever the dollar declines relative to other currencies. We previously wrote about the false claims of the “dollar’s death” in […]
The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In Artificial Intelligence
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may […]