Investors’ bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes. While concerns about the recent market correction have risen, and bearish headlines are rampant, investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. While that may be hard to fathom, negative sentiment occurs near market lows from a contrarian […]
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What You Pay. Value Is What You Get.” One of the hallmarks of very late-stage bull […]
The combination of extremely rich equity valuations, high interest rates, and a new President taking bold actions will likely continue to whip stocks around for the foreseeable future. Alongside those volatility-provoking factors is that the S&P 500 just posted two annual twenty-plus percent gains in a row. Accordingly, seeing average or below-average returns this year […]
Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. As noted last week, correlations between all asset classes, whether international or emerging markets, gold or bitcoin, have all gone to one. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations […]
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For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. While instituting a tariff on a set of products from China may indeed raise the […]
Some will rightfully say we are a glutton for punishment. Our previous articles on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have been met with boos and hisses (to be kind) from laser-eyed crypto crusaders. Despite what many of our critics think, we are agnostic about cryptocurrency, but we are willing to expose details that most crypto supporters refuse […]
Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. “The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite […]
There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I asked ChatGPT what the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs will likely be. Here is the answer: “One of the immediate consequences of increased tariffs […]