Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, asks- “What time is it in the cycle? Now that we are 17 months into a bull market cycle, it’s worth asking how much life there is left. How long can this broadening bull continue?” To help assess how much time may be left, Jurrien shares a […]
There’s a lot to suggest that this is still a very fragile recovery despite the fact it continues to look resilient on the surface. -State Street CIO Lori Heinel While most Wall Street economists have backed down their forecast for Fed Fund rate cuts from six to two, State Street remains very aggressive. They believe […]
Amazon stock accounts for 25% of the Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY), and it has been up 23% year to date. However, as represented by XLY, the sector is barely eking out a 1% gain for the year. The SimpleVisor proprietary Relative and Absolute analysis on the left highlights that the sector is the most oversold […]
The average Wall Street forecast for job growth was 200k, with the highest individual at 290k. Per Friday’s BLS employment report, the number of new jobs is 303k, beating every estimate. The latest job numbers continue to outperform analysts’ expectations seemingly every month. The three-month moving average has also been rising steadily. Currently, it stands […]
This past week’s ISM service and manufacturing surveys continue to show divergence between the two major economic sectors. However, this divergence differs from what we have seen over the past few years. For the first time in 16 months, the ISM manufacturing was above 50. 50 is the distinction between economic expansion and contraction. The […]
Markets often experience periods, like today, where specific sectors or factors lead the market. Identifying such trends is essential to attain market-like returns. Equally important is accurately forecasting when a market rotation is at hand. To that end, we share the work from Sentimentrader. Sentimentrader presented the graph below charting the one-year performance of the […]
Typically, credit spreads and yields on junk bonds align with credit stress and anticipated stress in the credit markets. Today, however, an aura of complacency reigns over the junk bond market as credit stress for junk-rated companies increases. The top graph, entitled Credit Stress is Building, courtesy of Bloomberg shows that defaults on junk-rated bank […]
For the better part of the last two years, Jerome Powell and the Fed have clearly indicated that monetary policy is primarily focused on bringing inflation back to its 2% target. Over the period, Powell indicated he was comfortable with weakness in the labor market if it meant inflation would normalize. Powell’s FOMC press conference […]
In a speech last Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller showed how even the most hawkish Fed members are turning dovish. The transformation from a hawkish to a dovish Fed began last October. In late summer and early fall of 2023, the Fed talked about rate increases and was steadfast about beating inflation. At the November […]