As we share in the graph below, crude oil prices peaked at $95 a barrel a year ago. More recently, in July, they were as high as $85. Today, they are below $70 and threatening to take out long-term support. So, why are oil prices falling so rapidly? We lean on the International Energy Agency […]
The Adobe Digital Price Index claims to use data from over one trillion online consumer transactions comprising over 100 million unique product SKUs. While those are massive numbers, Statista estimates only 16% of retail sales will come from online transactions in 2024. Despite the relatively small percentage, over 75% of adults shop online, and over […]
Yesterday’s commentary answered a question from a reader about our thoughts on owning gold or gold miners during a bull steepening period. Hours after publishing the commentary, we got a similar question asking how bitcoin might do when the Fed cuts rates. If bitcoin trades as a proxy of monetary policy and the dollar’s viability, […]
This past weekend, we received this question from a reader. The question is in reference to our recent article, Bull Steepener is Bearish. Specifically, the article points out that historically, stocks tend to do poorly when the yield curve exhibits a bullish steepening. However, gold miners and gold have both averaged positive returns during such […]
Heading into last Friday’s BLS employment report, the Fed Funds futures market put equal odds of the Fed cutting by 25 bps or 50 bps. Most economists thought the employment report would answer the question of whether they will cut by 25 bps or 50 bps at the September 18th FOMC meeting. The BLS employment […]
A week ago, the BLS revised lower the number of employed persons by nearly 900,000. Given that revision and a slew of recent revisions in other economic statistics, we must ask if GDP is also overstated. GDP, like other data, has a history of sharp revisions. For instance, consider the following research from the San […]
Nvidia faces legal woes as the Justice Department subpoenaed the company over antitrust concerns. This should not be too surprising, as it was recently reported that Nvidia dominates the GPU chip market and continues to increase its market share. GPU, or graphics processing unit, is a cornerstone of AI technology. As shown below, as of […]
“The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy.” That sentence led off our article last week: Yield Curve Shifts Offer Signals For Stockholders. The Treasury yield curve has proven an accurate predictor […]
Like the meteorological seasons, share buybacks also follow predictable patterns. Accordingly, as shown below, we are past the peak share buyback season. Following the peak, share buybacks will decline rapidly until early November. Declining share buybacks is not a bearish indicator per se. However, as the number of buybacks declines, the market, and specifically the […]