Bloomberg states: “The presidential race is still a coin-toss with two weeks to go, but Republican Donald Trump has the advantage over Democrat Kamala Harris in betting markets. His support for higher tariffs and looser fiscal policy has been seen as unfriendly to bonds because it means faster inflation and more debt.” Furthermore, the graph on the […]
Starting in January, Amazon workers will be expected to work in the office five days a week. While most other companies are adapting to work-from-home schedules and even offering them as a benefit, Amazon is bucking the trend. From a macroeconomic standpoint, the question that is most important is whether Amazon successfully gets its entire […]
It’s no secret that bond yields are heavily impacted by inflation and inflation expectations. Moreover, oil prices have a high correlation with inflation. So, to answer why bond yields are rising recently, it’s helpful to check the oil price. Since May 2023, as we share below, crude oil prices and ten-year UST yields have been […]
Wednesday’s Commentary discussed the shockingly weak booking numbers from ASML. Given that ASML is a large manufacturer of chip-making machines, we asked: “If the chip industry is facing insatiable demand, why such a stunning decline in the need for chip-making equipment?” ASML earnings introduced concern amongst semiconductor sector investors, leading many semi-stocks to decline decently. […]
Since going public in June 2023, Cava (CAVA) has taken the fast-casual restaurant industry and Wall Street by storm. Cava describes itself as a “Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant brand that brings heart, health, and humanity to food.” As the chart below highlights, Cava shares are up 250+% since its IPO. The return is 5x its chief […]
Per its website, MicroStrategy “provides software solutions and expert services that empower every individual with actionable advice.” While Microstrategy’s mission description may seem like a profitable enterprise, reality has a different opinion. Since 1997, the company has a cumulative net loss of $1.108 billion. Accordingly, the graphs below show its revenue has been flat to […]
The Fed cut rates on September 18th and many expect them to follow through with more rate cuts in the coming meetings. Yet bond yields have steadily risen. Why is this occurring? While there are many answers, it boils down to two primary reasons. As we will explain, the Citi Economic Surprise Index is rising. […]
JP Morgan and Wells Fargo kicked off the third-quarter earnings season on Friday. JP Morgan handily beat expectations for EPS and revenue. Furthermore, its charge-offs were slightly below expectations as credit quality remains solid. However, they increased their credit loss provision, as shown in the graph courtesy of ZeroHedge below. Such tells us they think […]
The graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows their Intelligence data rates the latest Fed meeting minutes as the most hawkish since April. Qualifying the minutes as hawkish is pretty ironic, considering the Fed’s 50bps rate cut three weeks ago was the most dovish action they have taken in a few years. Is it possible for […]