The number of residential construction workers has almost doubled since the aftermath of the financial crisis and housing bust. The graph below on the left shows that after a brief hiccup during the early days of the pandemic, the number of jobs in residential construction continued to rise despite higher interest rates. Moreover, the job […]
With election eve upon us, we thought it would be helpful to share market based presidential election polls along with Greg Valliere’s final thoughts. The graph on the top left shows the price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), which runs Truth Social Media. Truth will be a clear beneficiary if Trump wins and […]
It’s too early for the Fed to claim the infamous “mission accomplished” for inflation. However, yesterday’s PCE price index is now within the Fed’s mission accomplished range. The PCE price gauge rose 0.2% monthly and 2.1% year over year. That yearly rate is down 0.2% from last month and 0.6% over the previous six months. […]
The last two Halloweens capped off a few frightful months for bondholders. However, as we share below, 10-year bond yields reversed course on Halloween in 2022 and 2023. Will 2024’s harrowing October for bondholders end with Halloween’s ghosts and goblins? Accordingly, will November be better for bonds as it has been for the last two […]
Many events could roil the markets over the next two weeks and/or send them surging. Accordingly, it’s worth summarizing the political, monetary, and economic schedule to prepare for market turbulence. The intense schedule kicked off yesterday with the JOLTs report and Google earnings. Today is the ADP jobs report and Microsoft and Meta earnings. Thursday […]
Along with this week’s BLS, JOLTs, and ADP labor market reports are the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims data from the BLS. While the market doesn’t seem to focus on the continuing and initial jobless claims data as much as the monthly data, it is constructive. It helps us affirm the divergences we see […]
The Tweet on the left below from Charlie Bilello makes a strong case for a passive, buy-and-hold investment strategy. Supporting his graphical evidence is a quote from investment legend Charlie Munger, alluding that investors should buy and hold and let compounding work its magic. Consequently, investors who panicked at the market low in 2020, sold […]
What a difference two weeks make. Despite a 15% gain on Thursday, Tesla shares are back to where they were two weeks ago. The stock fell roughly 15% when its Cybercab robo-taxi presentation was a dud. As further attestation to the problems besetting Tesla’s robo-taxi program, shares of Uber and Lyft rose 10%. Today, shares […]
In March, we wrote an article on the Bougie Broke. This consumer group spends above their means while sharing their purchases on social media. Importantly, these consumers shed some light on consumer confidence. Simply, it’s easier to be Bougie Broke and flaunt your purchases when you are more confident in your wages and job than […]