One of the most common parallels for AI stocks’ booming performance is the tech bubble of the 1990s. Both periods were and are being driven by transformative secular developments. On the surface, the remarkable growth, market performance, and high valuations of AI stocks resemble dot-com stocks from the years that created the tech bubble. We’ve […]
Tesla’s robotaxi service, tentatively set to launch June 22, 2025, lags behind Waymo’s established operations, which deliver 250,000 weekly rides across multiple U.S. cities. Elon Musk’s cautious approach, driven by safety concerns, has delayed the rollout of Tesla’s robotaxi service. However, Tesla’s long-term strategy could position it to overtake competitors. Waymo, backed by Alphabet’s $5 […]
Crude oil prices spiked by over $10 on the initial news that Israel was bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeting its key military leaders. The price surge should be expected, given that Iran accounts for slightly over 3% of global production and, more importantly, holds 12% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. For context, […]
Initial and continuing jobless claims are as close to a real-time proxy on employment as we have. Thus, while they do not hold the same importance to the markets as the monthly BLS data, they are worth tracking. Moreover, when trends are changing, as they may be now, their importance increases. The two graphs below […]
The May CPI report released yesterday was considered the first inflation gauge to show how tariffs are impacting prices. We would like to see a few more months of inflation reports before claiming the coast is clear, but the May CPI is encouraging. For the fourth consecutive month, the CPI was below Wall Street estimates. […]
On May 20th, Google CEO Sundar Pichai updated the public on the company’s progress on its AI development as follows: We are now processing 480 trillion monthly tokens, a nearly 50X increase in just one. Over 7 million developers are now building with the Gemini API, a 5x growth since last I.O., and our enterprise […]
The deficit fearmongers are out in full force, warning that massive debt payments will further exacerbate the deficit and ultimately bankrupt the country. While we agree that steadily increasing deficits are a significant problem, we believe it’s not for the reasons most people give. To that end, a recent Tweet by George Gammon succinctly makes […]
Numerous bond narratives are driving long-term bond yields higher. “Crippling deficits” and a tariff-induced inflation sit at the top the list. We have repeatedly poked holes in these narratives. Instead of dwelling further on them, let’s consider what tomorrow’s narratives might be. When the bond market changes direction and yields fall, the two narratives we […]
The graph below provides a clearer understanding of the US fiscal deficit. First, focus on the red line below, graphing the ratio of federal debt to GDP. Note that it is at the same level today as it was in 2021. Similarly, before the pandemic, it had been relatively flat for seven years. This highlights […]