Yesterday’s CPI data was viewed by many as the first monthly BLS report to capture the full impact of tariffs. The headline CPI rose 0.3% and the core CPI data showed a 0.2% increase. The CPI data was slightly lower than Wall Street’s expectations for a 0.3% increase for both figures. Those claiming that tariffs […]
For the first time since 2016, the Federal government ran a budget surplus in June. Before the Financial Crisis, a surplus was the norm. However, since then, deficits have been the rule, not the exception. The cause of the $27 billion surplus was $27 billion in tariffs taken in. For reference, the government took in […]
In a unique event, the US government, specifically the Department of Defense (DoD), bought a 15% stake in the nation’s largest rare earth miner, MP Materials (MP). The DoD is buying $400 million of MP’s convertible preferred stock. The transaction will make the government MP’s largest shareholder. The following quote on the benefits of the partnership […]
Jerome Powell has made it clear that tariffs could induce higher inflation. Accordingly, the Fed has resisted cutting interest rates. Despite his concerns, fears of tariff-based inflation, as judged by individual and business surveys, are fading. Moreover, even some Fed members are backing away from their prior outlook that inflation would be transitory due to […]
With the amount of Treasury debt now in sharp focus, it’s worth cutting through the technical jargon used by the media to quantify demand at Treasury auctions. This summary of key Treasury auction terms will help you judge the auctions for yourself and not rely on others. The Treasury releases the statement below with each […]
Apple (AAPL) shares are languishing this year. As we share below, the stock is down over 16% year-to-date and significantly lags all of the Magnificent Seven stocks except Tesla. While weak revenue growth and relatively few new products are culprits, it’s also worth noting that Apple is considerably behind in AI development. Some Apple employees, […]
Hidden within a Bloomberg article published over the July 4th weekend was the following quote alluding to the possibility that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could simultaneously replace Jerome Powell as the Fed Chair, while continuing to serve as the Treasury Secretary. The president said Tuesday he has “two or three top choices” to potentially succeed […]
In no uncertain words, Intel’s stock has been a dog. As we share below, Intel stock has increased by a mere 2% over the last 20 years, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) has risen by over 1,200%. Over the previous 20+ years, Intel’s management has made many missteps, including: With dirt-cheap valuations compared to […]
The Fed and most investors primarily assess the labor market based on the monthly BLS employment report. To better guide those estimates, various reports, such as the monthly ADP report, can be helpful. We say “can be” because, since the pandemic, ADP has been less correlated with the BLS than it was before the pandemic. […]