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Daily Market Commentary
Consumer Confidence, as surveyed by the Conference Board and University of Michigan, shows consumers are starting to lose economic confidence. Given that consumer spending drives the economy and influences inflation, confidence and the means to spend can significantly impact markets. Based on recent job data, the means (i.e., wages) to consume appear to be in […]
Daily Market Commentary
In its annual letter to shareholders this past weekend, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced that it had increased its cash holdings to $334 billion. As the Financial Times chart on the right shows, Berkshire’s cash balances have more than doubled over the last few quarters to its highest level. Additionally, cash as a percentage of […]
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Daily Market Commentary
As expected yesterday, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate. With the expected 25bps rate cut, the new range for Fed Funds is 4.50-4.75%. The redlined second paragraph below, regarding inflation, is the only meaningful change to the FOMC statement. We think the Fed made the change to present a more hawkish stance. Furthermore, it […]
Daily Market Commentary
On Friday, Jerome Powell signaled that a September rate cut is highly likely, and the stock and bond markets applauded. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” […]
Daily Market Commentary
The Fed’s balance sheet peaked at $9 billion in April 2022. Today, after two years of Quantitative Tightening (QT), it has fallen to $7.2 trillion. When the Fed embarked on QT, its goal was to “normalize” its balance sheet. At the time, the St. Louis Fed claimed the purpose of QT was: “This policy, termed […]
Daily Market Commentary
A reader asked us how concerned we are about the market’s extension from crucial moving averages. The short answer is we are. But that doesn’t mean we are moving our equity holdings to cash. We continue to hold our equity positions for two reasons but we remain vigilant. First, the S&P 500 is doing great, […]