Bull Bear Report Stock-Bond Correlation: Oil Broke The Hedge. Oil Will Fix It. Daily Market Commentary Meta Splits: The Buyback Machine Shifts To Reverse Blog Fed Over-Tightening: How Much Runway Is Left Before It Bites? Daily Market Commentary Why Small Caps Have Recently Traded Like A Bond Proxy Blog Are Bonds Pricing In A Fed Policy Mistake? Daily Market Commentary Neoclouds And Hyperscalers: Same Concept, Different Risks Daily Market Commentary The Misleading Tech Sell-Off Daily Market Commentary Warsh Says Little: Market Hears Hold Blog AI Capex And Earnings: What Happens When Growth Slows Bull Bear Report Pimco Sees A 6% 10-Year. Here’s Why “Bad Inflation” Caps Yields
Vol. XXVII · No. 134
Monday — October 26, 2026
Houston, Texas
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lance roberts

1,313 results found

Pimco Sees A 6% 10-Year. Here’s Why “Bad Inflation” Caps Yields Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 week ago

Pimco Sees A 6% 10-Year. Here’s Why “Bad Inflation” Caps Yields

The market sold off hard to finish the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.09% on Friday to 7,659.44, closing the week down 1.95%, its worst week since June. The Nasdaq Composite fared worse, dropping 2.15% Friday and 4.48% for the week. Meanwhile, the Dow eked out a 0.67% weekly gain, and the Russell 2000 lost 3.05%. That split tells you most of what you need to know about what happened: there was a continued rotation from growth and risk to value and safety.

Lance Roberts 19 min read
Equity Risk Premium Has Vanished, And Stocks Aren’t Cheap. Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 weeks ago

Equity Risk Premium Has Vanished, And Stocks Aren’t Cheap.

The S&P 500 gained 1.1% this week to close Friday at 7,811.51, just shy of Tuesday's record close of 7,818.93. The Dow added 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%, while small caps slipped nearly 1%. Last week's Q4 outlook noted that Treasuries now offer a return that stocks haven't matched since 2002. This week, the 10-year yield pushed to its highest level since 2002 on Wednesday, then eased to about 5.25% after strong demand at the 10-year auction. Brent crude held above $100 after President Trump said the U.S. would not strike Iran before the midterm elections.

Lance Roberts 18 min read
Q4 Market Outlook: Strong Years Usually Finish Strong Newsletter
— Newsletter · 3 weeks ago

Q4 Market Outlook: Strong Years Usually Finish Strong

The bond market ran the show this week. On Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34%, its highest level since April 2002. It eased back to roughly 5.28% by Friday. The 30-year yield pushed toward 5.67%. Stocks absorbed the shock better than you might expect. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,722.72. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 gained 0.7% as Nvidia set a record, topping $5.7 trillion in market value. The Dow lagged, with banks and other rate-sensitive names taking the brunt.

Lance Roberts 20 min read
Jefferies Sets 9000 Market Target: Everything Must Go Right Newsletter
— Newsletter · 4 weeks ago

Jefferies Sets 9000 Market Target: Everything Must Go Right

The S&P 500 gained 1.2% this week to close at 7,744.64. That leaves the index up 13.1% for the year and just 0.7% shy of its August 13 record close of 7,798.99. While that is a bullish headline, the real story was in the bond market.

Lance Roberts 18 min read
The Fed Rate Hike Won’t Fix The Inflation It Targets Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 month ago

The Fed Rate Hike Won’t Fix The Inflation It Targets

Unsurprisingly, this past week's market action belonged to the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the FOMC delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. While the hike was widely expected, the 12-0 vote and the lack of rate cuts scheduled in 2027 shocked the markets. Furthermore, Kevin Warsh made clear that more hikes could follow.

Lance Roberts 20 min read
This Time Is Different? Earnings and Price Break 90-Year Trends Newsletter
— Newsletter · 1 month ago

This Time Is Different? Earnings and Price Break 90-Year Trends

September, so far, is living up to its reputation. The market slipped to the 50-day moving average, with the tape taking orders from crude oil. For the week, crude rose about 9% over four sessions, which pulled the 10-year Treasury yield higher right along with it, closing just under 5%. The corners of the market that hate higher rates slid while the S&P 500 dipped 0.68% to close the week at 7,666. However, that rather lackluster headline conveniently hides the real story beneath it.

Lance Roberts 18 min read
September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 months ago

September Market Weakness: The Setup Has Teeth

This was a decently boring week that ended just about where it began. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,718.60, up a rounding-error 0.1% for the week; however, that flat headline hid a decently bumpy five sessions. Stocks dipped early as oil spiked on fresh Middle East hostilities, recovered midweek when Fed Governor Chris Waller struck a dovish note, and yields eased, then handed it all back Friday when the August jobs report landed hot.

Lance Roberts 18 min read
Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 months ago

Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It

If you look at the market headline, the bulls won this week. However, the internals told a different story with the S&P 500 closing Friday at 7,711.76, up 0.5% on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.9% to 26,402.42.

Lance Roberts 17 min read
The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted? Newsletter
— Newsletter · 2 months ago

The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?

The week belonged to the bond market. Long-dated Treasury yields spiked to levels not seen in decades, with the 30-year touching a 19-year high above 5.30% mid-week and the 10-year closing Friday at 4.738%, near a 20-month high. Those seem to be really scary numbers, but as discussed on Friday, this is just a return to normalcy after 15 years of abnormally low rates.

Lance Roberts 19 min read