Daily Market Commentary

According to the graph on the left, Evercore counts 140 S&P 500 members with a negative beta, the highest on record. On the right side, that measure for the Russell 3000 stands at 373 stocks, more than 10x its long-term average of 36. That is 6.5 standard deviations from the mean and, statistically speaking, an […]

Over the past six months, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by nearly a full percentage point, and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) paid the price. XLRE, the State Street Real Estate ETF, was essentially flat, whereas the S&P 500 gained 18%. Clearly, higher yields are influencing REIT prices more than equity performance; thus, our question […]

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan recently said that she estimates the Fed Funds target rate needs to rise “an additional 50 basis points or more.” Her reasoning is straightforward and grounded in the Fed’s Congressional mandates. Inflation is falling as transitory factors fade but trending “toward the mid-2’s, not all the way to the FOMC’s […]

Since early September, the dollar Index has risen nearly 4%, reaching its highest level in over a year. The continued rally over the last few days is strange, since October rate-hike odds collapsed from above 60% to roughly 25% on a weak payroll number and less-than-expected PCE price data. Softer policy expectations normally weaken a […]

Last month, the BLS reported a stunning gain of 162k jobs in August. Accordingly, economists began to think the job market malaise may finally be thawing. The latest BLS report makes the August data seem like a one-off blip versus a trend change. Last Friday’s report showed a pick-up of only 29k jobs, about a […]

Anthropic’s leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters and the Financial Times, shows the company is growing faster than ever while committing to obligations that dwarf its earnings. To wit, annual revenue rose roughly 12x in 2025 to $4.6 billion, from about $400 million in 2024. Its first-quarter 2026 revenue was $4.73 billion, and its […]

Monday’s Tweet of the Day in the Daily Commentary highlighted rising swap spreads and noted that Treasury issuance is not the problem many pundits make it out to be. Swap spreads are a great gauge for the health and liquidity of the US Treasury market, so it’s worth appreciating the Tweet below. A swap spread […]

Will 5.00% be the approximate ceiling for Treasury yields? Maybe, maybe not, but for bond investors, the risk-reward math is becoming very enticing even if yields rise further. Today’s yields provide a loss cushion that did not exist three years ago, and a return asymmetry heavily in investors’ favor. To appreciate this concept, consider that […]

McDonald’s (MCD) hit four-year lows last week, down 22% on the year and 31% from its March high, marking a seventh straight weekly loss, its worst streak since 2014. Many investors look at a stock like MCD as a verdict on the American consumer. While its sales can be telling, internal issues are driving the […]

Pimco faces losses of more than $35 million on a commercial mortgage bond tied to Philadelphia’s Centre Square office towers, according to Bloomberg. The complex was appraised at $471 million in 2019. Last month, a judge approved its sale for $70 million. That 85% drop pushes CMBS losses to the very top of the capital […]

Media speculation about a possible agreement between Iran and the US often focuses on President Trump’s incentives to end the war. In particular, high gasoline and diesel prices are creating real political pressure heading into the midterms, as we share below. Thus, the reasoning goes that Trump may cave to political pressure to reduce energy […]

Crude peaked at $106 on September 15 and has since fallen nearly 15% to $90. Despite the recent downturn, gasoline futures are up 1.9% over the same period. The margin between the two widened from roughly $40 to $58 per barrel. That is over three times the twenty-year median, $17, and sits in the 99.8th […]