Daily Market Commentary

“The Committee will deliver price stability.” That promise has appeared in the FOMC statement in each of Warsh’s first three FOMC meetings. It deserves scrutiny because the Fed doesn’t usually make promises. Typically, the Fed Chair and FOMC describe economic and financial conditions and then state intentions. They tend to be shy about making promises […]

The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since June 1, but beneath the surface, a stealth bear market, driven by a series of significant value vs. growth rotations, has significantly impacted many S&P 500 members. Over the last five months, the S&P 500 is up about 1%, yet at some point during the period, 182 S&P […]

On Monday morning, Anthropic filed an SEC S1 form to begin the listing process on the Nasdaq under the symbol ANT. Three topics within the filing caught our attention. Let’s start with the financials, which are better than the headlines. Revenue for the first half of 2026 reached $16.3 billion, up sharply from $1.2 billion […]

According to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage division, hedge funds cut technology positions in mid-October at the fastest rate since 2016. The selling helps explain recent weakness in the Nasdaq 100, which recently had its worst week since April 2025. Goldman’s data also shows that global AI stocks gave back every dollar of net buying hedge […]

S&P 500 companies have been the marginal buyer of US stocks for a decade. Stock buybacks reached a record $1.020 trillion in the twelve months through September 2025, accounting for roughly 60% of all cash returned to shareholders. That tailwind has had a big impact on returns. If we decompose the S&P 500 return from […]

Meta reported record third-quarter revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26% and decently above the $63 billion consensus. Diluted EPS of $3.83 was nearly quadruple the $1.05 they earned a year ago. Bear in mind, EPS was distorted by the $18 billion teen mental health settlement. Without that charge, EPS would have been $7.40. While the […]

The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks has fallen 8.2% since late June and has not made a new high in four months, a stretch during which the S&P 500 repeatedly set records. However, they have been trading better recently as bond yields have fallen. That correlation is no coincidence, and understanding why small-cap stocks […]

Elice Group went public on South Korea’s Kosdaq exchange yesterday and fell roughly 30%. A week earlier, Nvidia-backed Firmus shelved a planned $5 billion IPO. In the same vein, as we discussed in CoreWeave Shares Tumble As Its Debt Flounders, CoreWeave’s 2032 debt now yields near 15%, up from below 10% a week earlier. To […]

The technology sector (XLK) fell 5.3% over the past two weeks, but that figure is misleading. Two of its largest members, Apple and Microsoft, rose by 2%+ over the period, and Google and Meta kept pace with the S&P 500’s 1.5% decline. The damage in the technology sector was mainly in semiconductors, with the SOX […]

Kevin Warsh spoke Friday at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok. He gave little indication of whether the Fed would hold rates or increase them at the coming meeting on October 28. To that end, he said: “I don’t prejudge meetings,” noting at the September meeting the Committee “made very clear that we would deliver […]

CoreWeave shares have fallen by nearly 50% since April, including a 15% decline on Wednesday. More concerning, its 9.625% notes maturing in 2032 traded for less than 80 cents on the dollar. That equates to a yield of nearly 15%. For context, the yield was below 10% earlier this week. Its five-year credit default swap […]

As we noted in prior commentaries, last month’s softer-than-expected CPI and PCE reports, along with weak labor data, gave the Fed room to wait on further rate hikes. Yesterday’s CPI data takes some of it back. September headline CPI rose 0.6% for the month, matching expectations, and 3.7% over twelve months against 3.6% expected. Core […]