Newsletter

Markets surged into the Thanksgiving holiday, ending the week with substantial gains across all major U.S. indexes. The S&P 500 rose by approximately 3.7%, marking one of its strongest weeks in the past six months. The catalyst was a combination of falling bond yields and increasing confidence that the Federal Reserve has completed its rate hikes. Currently, Kalshi (prediction market) is projecting an 80% chance of a rate cut in December.

The markets experienced another volatile trading week as we head into a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed the week lower, but rallied on Friday as options expiration took hold. The consistent selling pressure in AI and semiconductor-related stocks had reversed previous overbought conditions enough for a bounce. The big news was Nvidia's earnings. Despite the market's poor reaction (a very normal response following its earnings report), the numbers were stellar.

This past week saw the most pronounced and coordinated rotation away from high-beta assets that we’ve experienced all year. What began as routine profit-taking in a handful of large-cap technology and AI names quickly evolved into a broad, organized risk-off event that stretched across the market. Mega-cap technology, which has been the driving force behind the market’s advance, fell sharply as momentum strategies encountered their first significant hurdle in months. But the pressure wasn’t isolated there: Bitcoin, small caps, unprofitable tech, and retail-favorite thematic ETFs all joined the selloff, confirming that this was not merely a sector wobble but a complete risk reset.

This past week, markets continued to digest earnings from key technology and AI-focused companies, as well as the lingering effects of the Federal Reserve’s recent policy shift. Despite a limited macroeconomic calendar due to the ongoing government shutdown, corporate results kept investors engaged. The market struggled with ongoing narrow breadth and growing sensitivity to forward guidance. Major earnings reports from AI-related and large-cap tech firms revealed continued strength in revenue and profit growth, but fell short of overly optimistic expectations.

This week, the Federal Reserve acted as expected, cutting its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Alongside the cut, the Fed announced a halt to its balance sheet runoff, effectively ending quantitative tightening (QT). Both moves were significant shifts away from policy restraint toward support, the subject of this week's newsletter.

U.S. markets surged on Friday, setting new all‑time highs for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite as investors cheered a cooler‑than‑expected inflation print (CPI for September at 3.0 % vs ~3.1 % expected).

This past week delivered a sharp pickup in volatility and quick reversals, underlining how fragile the tape has become. Early in the week, markets were pressured by renewed trade rhetoric from former President Trump. He threatened a 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 in response to China’s export controls on rare earths. While rare earth stocks soared on the news, it rattled investors, igniting fears of an escalating U.S.–China trade war just as bullish momentum had built.

The market crack on Friday resulted from a defensive move as geopolitical stress, trade rhetoric, and political dysfunction triggered a sharp reversal in sentiment. After trading relatively flat most of the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.7% on Friday, wiping out earlier gains and ending the week in the red. The late-day selloff was triggered by unexpected comments from former President Donald Trump, who called for a sweeping escalation in trade restrictions against China, including 100% tariffs and export controls.

Markets closed the third quarter grappling with two competing forces: Jerome Powell’s warning that equities are “fairly highly valued,” and the uncertainty of a government shutdown that began over the weekend. The shutdown halts most economic data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, including this week’s jobs report, leaving investors without the usual anchors. Historically, markets have looked through shutdowns as political theater, and so far, that has been the case this time.