CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE. Valuations have always been, and remain, an essential variable in long-term investing returns. Or, as Warren Buffett once quipped: “Price Is What […]
The Tariff Risk Isn’t In Inflation (Part II)
For Part 1 on “Tariff Risk” read: Tariff Impact Not As Bearish As Predicted. In “Trumpflation” we discussed why the tariff risk was not inflation. To wit: “Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. […]
Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction
Last week, we discussed the surge in retail exuberance in the market following the election of President Trump. “The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear […]
The Impact Of Tariffs Is Not As Bearish As Predicted
There are many media-driven narratives about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the markets. Most of them are incredibly bearish, predicting the absolute worst possible outcomes. For fun, I asked ChatGPT what the expected impact of Trump’s tariffs […]
The Definitive Guide to Managing Risk in Your Investment Portfolio
Learn investment portfolio risk management strategies to protect wealth. Discover tips for reducing investment risks with diversification and risk tools.
Bull Bear Report – Technical Update
I could not produce our weekly Bull Bear Report this past weekend as I presented at Michael Campbell’s Moneytalks Conference in Vancouver. However, I wanted to use today’s technical update to review some of the statistical analysis we produce each […]
Forecasting Error Puts Fed On Wrong Side Again
The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial conditions. In the most recent FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve changed its statement to support a pause in the current […]
Tariffs Roil Markets
Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. Such was not unexpected, as contained in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE}. Specifically, that order stated: […]
Bullish Exuberance Returns As Trump Takes Office
Bullish exuberance is returning to the markets and the economy in a big way following the Presidential election. Such is particularly the case with recent executive orders signed by Trump, which fulfill Trump’s promises to “Make America Great Again.” Given […]