The Psychology Of Investing In A Zero-Risk Illusion
Every market cycle eventually changes investor psychology to believe risk has been conquered. The storylines may change, from โthis time itโs differentโ to โthe Fed has our back,โ but the psychology does not. When markets rise steadily and volatility remains […]
Capitalism: The Road To Wealth And Happiness
The graph below presents another opportunity to revisit how capitalism and the economic freedom it entails lead to prosperity. The scatter plot below shows the intersection of The Fraser Instituteโs Economic Freedom Index with per capita GDP for 102 of […]
ChatGPT Gives Financial Advice On Volatile Markets
Following Friday’s selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question:ย ” How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?” That simple question generated an engaging and humorous take on financial advice for navigating volatile […]
Recession And Bonds: Navigating The Next Recession
It’s odd to consider, but a recession could flip our bullish outlook on bonds to bearish. It’s unusual because typically, inflation drops during a recession, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices. While we believe that if an economic […]
Bear Market Losses – A Dangerous Illusion
When bear market losses occur, headlines talk in percentages:ย โThe market dropped 20โฏ%.โย Investors nod. A 20โฏ% decline sounds manageable, historical, and expected. As Ben Carlson recently penned: “Bear markets have some symmetry to them, at least in the short-term. In the […]
Miran Says Rates Are Too High: Politics Or Reality?
Stephen Miran, Donald Trump’s recent addition to the Fed, joined the Federal Reserve the day before the last meeting. At that meeting, he was the only dissenting vote, supporting a 50-basis-point rate cut. All other members voted for a 25-basis-point […]
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Timing The Next Correction
In the world of technical analysis, there is one reliable indicator for measuring market risk. The relative strength index (RSI) measures overextensionย (in either direction). Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator. As such, it […]
Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed’s Latest Move
Some Wall Street pundits believe that the recent Fed rate cut makes its policy too accommodative, and they also argue that the Fed is creating a โGoldilocksโ scenario for the stock market. To wit, we recently saw the following comment […]
Markets: Bullish Vs Bearish Case
Just recently, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities wrote an excellent piece discussing the bull versus the bear case for the markets. You look at the markets today and see a tension between expectation and reality. On one hand, equitiesโespecially tech […]