It’s not just a handful of AI-related stocks that signal a speculative investment atmosphere. Many other stocks and markets are exhibiting similar behavior. For instance, Bitcoin and junk-rated corporate bonds show complacency and wild speculation. While both markets are inherently very different, traders and investors of bitcoin and junk bonds tend to behave similarly. The […]
Stock buyback authorization announcements are soaring this year. As shown in the graph on the left, the $207 billion in 2024 stock buyback announcements is already on par with the annual totals for 2020 and 2021 and only 29% behind the record-setting $293 billion last year. Mind you, there are still ten months to go […]
The implied volatility index (VIX) calculates the future volatility that option traders expect. The VIX tends to rise as stocks decline. At such times, investors are often more aggressive in hedging their stocks with options. Conversely, when markets are increasing, the demand for insurance tends to wane. Further, imparting downward pressure on the VIX, some […]
In a recent article, geologist Ted Cross of Novilabs eases investor concerns about the rapid depletion rate of shale oil wells. He claims investor fears are comparable to The “Red Queen Effect,” a concept from Alice in Wonderland: “It takes all the running you can do to keep in the same place.” Investors worry that […]
As we noted in our current Weekly Newsletter, Conference Board Scraps Its Recession Call, the Conference Board, publisher of the well-followed leading economic indicators (LEI), has rescinded its recession prediction. As we wrote: “According to the Conference Board, the reason for the retraction of the recession call was the improvement in underlying indicators.” While it’s […]
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $150 million of his JPM shares, marking the first time he has sold JPM shares. Jeff Bezos has sold 50 million shares of Amazon since the beginning of the month. Furthermore, Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, has sold $1 billion worth of stock this year. Because these vast sales […]
Japan is in a recession, its population is shrinking, and its debt to GDP is over 250%. However, despite their economic and demographic woes, Japan’s main stock index, the Nikkei 225, just hit a new all-time high. There is much more to the story than the Nikkei stock market diverging from fundamentals. The Nikkei is […]
The Magnificent Seven hog the headlines and are the envy of many investors. Yet since the start of 2024, only two Magnificent Seven stocks have been beating the market significantly. The graph below shows the relative performance of each stock versus the S&P 500. As shown, the Magnificent Seven traded in a unified fashion from […]
The Bloomberg graph below provides us with a reason to be optimistic about the earnings and share prices of the largest corporations. As shown, the amount of cash corporations hold is at an all-time high and double the pre-pandemic trend. Large amounts of cash are a good thing for shareholders in today’s high interest-rate environment. […]