The concepts of “smart money” versus “dumb money” refer to the level of investors’ information and experience. Smart money, typically institutional investors and often seasoned professionals, has extensive research and is more adept at data analysis. Therefore, they tend to have more disciplined strategies and are less impacted by negative behavioral traits. Conversely, dumb money, […]
“BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he will meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland to begin trade talks with China.” A month ago, when markets were grossly oversold, news of trade discussions between China and the US would have sent markets soaring. However, now with the market slightly overbought, the S&P 500 doesn’t seem to […]
This past weekend, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, announced it would increase production by 411k barrels per day. The action follows a 250k increase last month. The decision is different from OPEC’s decision-making in the past. OPEC typically would use production quotas to manage oil prices. For example, in the current environment, with oil prices […]
An email from a reader of ours led with the title “PCE is quite confusing.” He asked if we would explain the difference between the monthly PCE prices index and the quarterly PCE prices, i.e., the GDP deflator, accompanying the GDP report. Given the importance of monthly PCE prices to the Fed and their meeting […]
Japan holds over $1 trillion of US Treasury securities, making it the largest sovereign holder by a significant amount. Thus, the possibility has arisen that Japan might use its extensive holdings as leverage in tariff negotiations. Japanese Foreign Minister Katsunobu Kato said Japan has not made a decision on whether to include its holdings as […]
This past week, two lower-cost food and beverage retailers posted earnings, which conveyed the underlying message that consumers are struggling. McDonalds and Starbucks reported significant domestic sales declines for the first quarter. McDonalds saw its US same-store sales fall by 3.6%, driven by a decrease in its “guest count.” This was the worst decline in […]
The headlines below lead some to believe the shelves in our stores will soon be empty. Moreover, reminiscent of 2020, an inflation spike due to fractured supply lines is imminent. Let’s provide context to help make sense of the headlines and determine whether the plunge of Chinese inbound container ships to US ports represents truth […]
According to Bloomberg, Yale University could sell as much as $6 billion of its private equity investments. Such a sale would represent about 15% of its total endowment fund and a third of its private equity holdings. Yale was a frontrunner among endowment funds investing in private equity. Its well-known ex-investment manager, David Swensen, believed […]
The Zweig Breadth Thrust, a rare technical indicator, triggered a bullish signal on Friday. The signal indicates rapid and significant changes in momentum. The calculation is based on the 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks that were positive on a daily basis. The Zweig Breadth Thrust signal occurs when the moving average rises […]