As we approach today’s delayed CPI report, it’s helpful to look beyond government statistics to focus on a more current and robust picture of inflation. Implied Inflation: This is derived from comparing the yields of nominal Treasury securities to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The graph below (bottom left) shows that implied inflation, also known […]
In August 2025, Beyond Meat (BYND), a plant-based meat producer, took to social media to call reports of its bankruptcy “unequivocally false“. Despite the assurances, the company was floundering, and bankruptcy was a possibility. The company has significant liabilities and has lost money every year since its IPO. Adding to their woes, sales peaked in […]
Not only is the market chasing the most speculative of assets, but it is employing record amounts of leverage to do so. Traditionally, investors use margin loans to gain leverage. More recently, however, leveraged ETFs allow investors to get leverage in one package. To wit, the graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are […]
Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal wrote an interesting article (Maybe ‘Debasement’ Isn’t The Best Way To Put it), sharing his opinion on the rising popularity of the so-called debasement trade. The debasement trade logic that Joe generally debunks is growing very popular in the media, per the Bloomberg graph below. While Joe thinks the debasement trade logic […]
In July of 2021, after the pandemic and the liquidity issues that arose in 2019, the Fed established a new liquidity backstop. This program, the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), allows financial institutions to borrow on a collateralized basis from the Fed. Unlike the Overnight Reverse Repurchase facility (ON RRP), which allows financial institutions to park […]
In our Daily Commentary from October 9th, we alerted readers to the fact that the Fed’s Overnight Repurchase Program was warning that the financial system was running out of a reliable store of excess liquidity. While not a concern, as we share in our quote below, it was worth monitoring. Said differently, after years of […]
Chairman Powell spoke on Tuesday, addressing several topics. Of note was the following quote: “We may be approaching the end of our balance sheet contraction in the coming months.” The market interpretation is that QT is ending soon. As a reminder, QT, also known as quantitative tightening, has been in effect for over three years. […]
On Tuesday morning, Bloomberg published an article titled “The Great Debasement Is Rippling Across Markets.” From the start of the year until its low in the middle of September, the US dollar index fell by nearly 15%. The weak dollar seems to fuel the debasement narrative, benefiting a few asset classes. The most obvious assets benefiting […]
Last Friday, the cryptocurrency market experienced a violent crash. The trigger was President Trump’s announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports. The sudden and unexpected action reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Global risk assets fell sharply. Of these, the most notable declines occurred in the cryptocurrency markets, particularly the altcoin market. […]