YTD returns across major U.S. asset classes continue to reflect a highly concentrated market. The Finviz chart below does a nice job illustrating YTD returns across a wide array of futures contracts. Large-caps dominate YTD equity returns, while small- and mid-cap stocks lag amid tighter financial conditions and slower earnings growth. Outside of equities, YTD […]
Most Americans are paying higher electricity prices, and the pressure is unlikely to ease anytime soon. According to the Wall Street Journal, electricity prices have risen meaningfully across much of the country since 2022, and the drivers extend well beyond the frequently cited surge in data-center demand. While electricity prices had historically tracked inflation, that […]
GDP, released on Tuesday, showed that the economy grew by a larger-than-expected 4.3%. Powering the strong economic growth was personal consumption, which rose by 3.5%. Consumers are spending!. What’s unusual about that statement is that consumer sentiment remains historically weak. Typically, there is a strong correlation between personal consumption and consumer sentiment. As we share […]
On Monday night, copper prices, as shown below, reached an all-time high of over $12,000 per metric ton. Copper is often referred to as “Doctor Copper” because it serves as a barometer of global economic activity. However, the current surge in prices is not due to sharply rising demand; tariffs and physical dislocation are heavily […]
Inflation in the European Union is nearing 2%, expected to dip below it in 2026 and 2027 and then settle at its 2% target thereafter. The ECB’s President Lagarde and other ECB members have recently stated that they are comfortable with the central bank’s current interest rate level. The markets are taking the ECB’s public […]
In 1850, Economist Frederic Bastiat famously wrote an essay entitled “That which is seen, and that which is not seen.” The first chapter, “The Broken Window,” argues that good economics requires considering not just the immediate, visible effects of an action but also the delayed, less obvious (unseen) consequences. Unfortunately, most commentators, when asked about […]
Blue Owl Capital spooked AI investors on Wednesday when the Financial Times reported that the firm, one of Oracle’s larger financing partners for major U.S. data centers, decided not to provide equity backing for a $10 billion data center Oracle is building in Michigan. This planned facility is part of Oracle’s collaboration with OpenAI under […]
According to Bloomberg, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been increasing the mortgages and mortgage-backed securities they hold on their own balance sheets. At their peak, before the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie held a combined total of $1.6 trillion in mortgages. As we share below, courtesy of Bloomberg, their portfolio sizes are well below […]
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed Trump’s inclusion of Kevin Warsh in the race for Federal Reserve chair. Today, we compare some key differences between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Understanding what each contributes to the Fed helps us better assess their effects on capital markets. Kevin Warsh was a Fed Governor from 2006 through 2011. We learned […]