Tag Archives: ten year futures

Cartography Corner – February 2020

J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


January 2020 Review

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We begin with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESH0) during January 2020. In our January 2020 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for January are:

  • M4                 3475.00
  • M1                 3353.00
  • M3                 3318.25
  • PMH              3254.00
  • Close             3231.00     
  • M2                 3106.00
  • MTrend        3092.44     
  • PML               3069.50    
  • M5                 2984.00

Active traders can use 3254.00 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for January 2020 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  The first four trading sessions of January saw the market price exhibit “choppiness”, reflecting market participants’ indecision as to directional bias.  Early into the fifth trading session, January 8th, the geopolitical event emanating from Iran caused the market price to achieve its low price for the month at 3181.00.  However, by the end of the day, the market price had recovered and settled back above our isolated pivot at PMH: 3254.00.     

Over the following six trading sessions, the market price ascended to our isolated resistance level at M3: 3318.25.  The ensuing four sessions saw the market price lose its upward momentum, straddling either side of M3: 3318.25.  On January 22nd the high price for the month was realized at 3337.50, in between our resistance levels at M3: 3318.25 and M1: 3353.00.

From January 24th through the end of the month, the market price action was dominated by market participants’ reaction-to and anticipation-of the effects of the Wuhan Coronavirus.  The trading sessions of January 24th and 27th saw the market price decline a total of 86.50 points on a settlement basis.  The final four trading sessions were spent with the market price oscillating around our isolated pivot at PMH: 3254.00.

Conservatively, active traders following our analysis had the opportunity to monetize a 1.78% profit.

  

Figure 1:

Japanese Yen Futures

We continue with a review of Japanese Yen Futures (6JH0) during January 2020.  In our January 2020 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for January are:

  • M4         0.94068
  • M3         0.93445
  • PMH       0.92659
  • Close      0.92455
  • M1           0.92403
  • MTrend   0.92330
  • PML        0.91195           
  • M2         0.91140                       
  • M5           0.89475

Active traders can use 0.92659 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 0.92330 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below that level.

As you read this, recall that we wrote in January that the annual correlation of daily returns between Japanese Yen Futures and E-Mini S&P 500 Futures is -0.53.  January’s price action in those markets were mirror images of one another.

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for January 2020 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  The first four trading sessions of January saw the market price exhibit “choppiness”, reflecting market participants’ indecision as to directional bias.  Early into the fifth trading session, January 8th, the geopolitical event emanating from Iran caused the market price to achieve its high price for the month at 0.93235.  However, by the end of the day, the market price had recovered and settled back below our isolated downside pivot at MTrend: 0.92330.

Over the following six trading sessions, the market price descended to and settled below, our clustered support levels at PML: 0.91195 and M2: 0.91140.  On January 17th the low price for the month was realized at 0.90935.

From January 18th through the end of the month, the market price action was dominated by market participants’ reaction-to and anticipation-of the effects of the Wuhan Coronavirus.  The market price rallied back to, and settled slightly above, our clustered support levels at MTrend: 0.92330 and M1: 0.92403, now acting as resistance.

Conservatively, active traders following our analysis had the opportunity to monetize a 0.81% profit.

Figure 2:

February 2020 Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESH0).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Weekly Trend         3285.17       
  • Daily Trend             3265.61
  • Current Settle         3224.00       
  • Monthly Trend        3180.97       
  • Quarterly Trend      2974.00

In the quarterly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for four quarters.  Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for eight months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are in “Consolidation”, after having been “Trend Up” for sixteen weeks.  The relative positioning of the Trend Levels is beginning to lose its bullish posture.

We wrote in January, “The first indication of weakness will be a weekly settlement under Weekly Trend”.  We now have that indication.  The next event that needs to occur to strengthen the case of a possible Trend Reversal is a monthly settlement under Monthly Trend.  As noted above, Monthly Trend for February is at 3180.97.

Astute readers will notice that January’s low coincided with February’s Monthly Trend level.  Hmmm…

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for February are:

  • M4                 3605.50
  • M1                 3421.00
  • PMH              3337.50
  • M2                 3292.50
  • Close             3224.00     
  • M3                 3217.00
  • PML               3181.00     
  • MTrend         3180.97     
  • M5                3108.00

Active traders can use 3217.00 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Bitcoin Futures

For the month of February, we focus on Bitcoin Futures.  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of BTG0.  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Daily Trend           9,489             
  • Current Settle       9,440
  • Quarterly Trend    9,239             
  • Weekly Trend       8,830             
  • Monthly Trend      7,982

As can be seen in the quarterly chart below, Bitcoin is in “Consolidation”.  Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that Bitcoin is in “Consolidation”, after having been “Trend Down” for five months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that Bitcoin has been “Trend Up” for five weeks.

With the weekly, monthly, and quarterly trend levels having quietly slipped beneath the market price, it is worth considering that the rally in Bitcoin that began five weeks ago may be just the beginning of a substantial move higher in price.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for February are:

  • M4         13,070
  • M3         11,670
  • M1         11,520
  • PMH       9,745
  • Close        9,440
  • MTrend   7,982
  • M2         7,300  
  • PML        6,860              
  • M5           5,750

Active traders can use 9,745 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight into many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription; we are asking you to listen.

Cartography Corner – January 2020

J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


A Review of December

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We begin with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ9, ESH9) during December 2019. In our December 2019 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4                 3455.00
  • M1                 3255.00
  • M3                 3251.75
  • M2                 3211.00
  • PMH              3155.00     
  • Close              3143.75
  • PML               3033.00     
  • MTrend         3018.97     
  • M5                3011.00

Active traders can use 3155.00 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for December 2019 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  The first two trading sessions of December saw the market price extend the weakness which began on November 29.  The low price for December was realized during the second trading session at 3069.50, -2.4% from November’s settlement.  

Over the following seven trading sessions, the market price ascended, and settled, above our isolated pivot level at PMH: 3155.00.  Over the following five sessions, the market price continued rising, and settled, above our next isolated resistance level at M2: 3211.00.  On December 27th the high price for the month was realized at 3254.00, in between our clustered-resistance levels at M3: 3251.75 and M1: 3255.00.

The remainder of December was spent with the market price rotating back down to M2: 3211.00, now acting as support.  Active traders following our analysis had the opportunity to capture a 3.03% profit. 

Figure 1:

U.S. Ten-Year Note Futures

We continue with a review of U.S. Ten-Year Note Futures (“Tens”, TYH0) during December 2019.  In our December 2019 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4         131-30
  • PMH       130-16
  • MTrend  130-02
  • Close      129-12
  • M1           128-30
  • M3           128-14
  • PML        128-00             
  • M2         126-30                         
  • M5           123-30

Active traders can use 130-16 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for December 2019 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  The second trading session saw the market price ascending, but not settling, above December’s Monthly Trend level at MTrend: 130-02.  The high for the month was realized during that session which coincided with the low price realized by E-Mini S&P 500 Futures.

The following six trading sessions were spent with the market price descending to, and straddling, our isolated support level at M1: 128-30.  On December 12th, the weakness accelerated and continued into the early hours of December 13th.  During that session, the market price descended slightly below November’s low at PML: 128-00, realizing the low price for the month at 127-29, yet settled only one tick off the high of the session’s range.  The remainder of December was spent with Tens essentially bound by M1: 128-30, M3: 128-14, and PML: 128-00.

Figure 2:

January 2020 Analysis

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESH0).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Daily Trend             3232.36       
  • Current Settle         3231.00
  • Weekly Trend         3202.98       
  • Monthly Trend        3092.44       
  • Quarterly Trend      2974.00

In the quarterly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for four quarters.  Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for seven months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for twelve weeks.  The relative positioning of the Trend Levels is bullishly aligned.  The market price is above all of them (with exception of Daily Trend) which is bullish as well.

The first indication of weakness will be a weekly settlement under Weekly Trend.  As noted above, Weekly Trend is at WTrend: 3202.98 for this week and is currently developing at 3226.06 for the week of January 6th, 2020.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for January are:

  • M4                 3475.00
  • M1                 3353.00
  • M3                 3318.25
  • PMH              3254.00
  • Close             3231.00     
  • M2                 3106.00
  • MTrend         3092.44     
  • PML                3069.50    
  • M5                2984.00

Active traders can use 3254.00 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Japanese Yen Futures

For the month of January, we focus on Japanese Yen Futures.  Japanese Yen Futures are quoted with the Yen as the anchor currency.  For example, a quote of 0.92000 means 1 Yen is worth ninety-two cents.  A rising Yen is equivalent to a weaker U.S. dollar.   We provide a monthly time-period analysis of 6JH0.  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Quarterly Trend    0.92847         
  • Current Settle       0.92455
  • Monthly Trend      0.92330         
  • Daily Trend           0.92071         
  • Weekly Trend        0.91917

As can be seen in the quarterly chart below, the Yen is in “Consolidation” after having been “Trend Up” for four quarters.  Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that the Yen has been “Trend Down” for four months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that the Yen is in “Consolidation”.

With the intermediate and short-term trend levels having quietly slipped beneath the market price, it is worth considering that the importance of the Yen as a barometer of other asset classes is hard to overstate.  Might the yen be an omen of change in other asset markets?  Please consider the following annual correlations of daily returns between Japanese Yen Futures and other asset classes (futures):

Equity -0.53, Treasury (Price) 0.70, U.S. Dollar Index -0.46, Gold 0.51

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for January are:

  • M4         0.94068
  • M3         0.93445
  • PMH       0.92659
  • Close      0.92455
  • M1           0.92403
  • MTrend   0.92330
  • PML        0.91195           
  • M2         0.91140                       
  • M5           0.89475

Active traders can use 0.92659 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 0.92330 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below that level.

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight into many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription; we are asking you to listen.

Cartography Corner – December 2019

J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


A Review of November

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We begin with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ9) during November 2019. In our November 2019 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:

  • M4                 3221.00
  • M3                 3093.00
  • M1                 3084.25
  • PMH              3055.00
  • Close             3035.75     
  • MTrend         2950.42
  • PML               2855.00     
  • M2                 2821.00    
  • M5                2684.25

Active traders can use 3055.00 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2950.42 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below that level.

Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for November 2019 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  The first trading session of November saw the market price settle above our isolated upside pivot level at PMH: 3055.00.  The market price never looked back. 

Over the following eight trading sessions, the market price ascended, and settled, above our next isolated resistance levels at M1: 3084.25 and M3: 3093.00.  It is worth noting the long lower shadows on the six candlesticks of November 8th through November 14th (highlighted in the chart).  These lower shadows demonstrate the battle between longs and shorts, through increased intra-session volatility, as these isolated resistance levels were reached.  Once the market price settled above these levels, despite the volatility, it never rotated back below them on a settlement basisThese candlesticks provide a good example of why we choose to emphasize settlements in our decision-making framework.

The remainder of November was spent with the market price continuing its ascent towards our isolated Monthly Upside Exhaustion level at M4: 3221.00, stopping short by 2.05%.

Active traders following our analysis had the opportunity to capture a 2.63% profit.   

Figure 1:

New Zealand Dollar Futures

We continue with a review of New Zealand Dollar Futures (“Kiwi”, 6NZ9) during November 2019.  In our November 2019 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:

  • M4         0.6627
  • M3         0.6558
  • PMH       0.6444
  • M1         0.6426
  • Close       0.6416
  • MTrend   0.6361
  • PML        0.6215             
  • M2         0.6169                         
  • M5           0.5968

Active traders can use 0.6361 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for November 2019 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  The first eight trading sessions were primarily spent with the market price descending to, and settling below, our isolated pivot level at MTrend: 0.6361.  The low settlement price for the month of November was realized on November 8th at 0.6330, 0.48% below the Monthly Trend.  Three trading sessions later, on November 13th, Kiwi traded a big-figure higher, testing our isolated resistance level at M1: 0.6426.  In the November 14th session, Kiwi reversed course again, testing Monthly Trend at MTrend: 0.6361.  Volatility anyone?

The remainder of November was spent with Kiwi ascending back to, and essentially straddling, our isolated resistance level at M1: 0.6426.  After much volatility, Kiwi settled the month of November at 0.6423, basically unchanged from October.  We retain a positive intermediate outlook, for a sustained Trend Reversal, since November’s settlement price remained above Monthly Trend.

Active traders following our work most likely were victims of the intra-month volatility, in the worst-case capturing an approximate 2.00% loss.

Figure 2:

December 2019 Analysis

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ9).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Daily Trend             3145.06       
  • Current Settle         3143.75
  • Weekly Trend         3118.03       
  • Monthly Trend        3018.97       
  • Quarterly Trend      2840.92

In the quarterly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for three quarters.  Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for six months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for eight weeks.  The relative positioning of the Trend Levels is bullishly aligned.  The market price is above all of them (with exception of Daily Trend) which is bullish as well.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4                 3455.00
  • M1                 3255.00
  • M3                 3251.75
  • M2                 3211.00
  • PMH              3155.00     
  • Close              3143.75
  • PML               3033.00     
  • MTrend         3018.97     
  • M5                3011.00

Active traders can use 3155.00 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

U.S. Ten-Year Note Futures

For the month of December, we focus on U.S. Ten-Year Note Futures (“Tens”).  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of TYH0.  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Monthly Trend      130-02           
  • Daily Trend           129-17
  • Current Settle       129-12           
  • Weekly Trend       129-10           
  • Quarterly Trend    126-16

As can be seen in the quarterly chart below, Tens have been “Trend Up” for four quarters.  Stepping down one time-period, the monthly chart shows that Tens are in “Consolidation”, after having been “Trend Up” for twelve months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that Tens are in “Consolidation”, after having been “Trend Down” for six weeks.  The Trend Levels are beginning to rotate above the market price.

In the monthly time-period, the “signal” was given in August 2019 to anticipate a two-month low within the following four to six months.  That two-month low was realized in November 2019 with the trade below 128-16.

As we stated in our November edition, “Our first priority in performing technical analysis is to identify the beginning of a new trend, the reversal of an existing trend, or a consolidation area.”  The twelve-month uptrend that began in November 2018 has ended.  Only time will tell if this weakness is consolidation or if a new downtrend develops.  

 

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4         131-30
  • PMH       130-16
  • MTrend  130-02
  • Close      129-12
  • M1           128-30
  • M3           128-14
  • PML        128-00             
  • M2         126-30                         
  • M5           123-30

Active traders can use 130-16 as the pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level and a flat or short position below it.

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight into many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription; we are asking you to listen.