Tag Archives: eminis

Cartography Corner – January 2019

J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


The Cartography Corner

A Review of December

Orange Juice

We will begin with a review of Orange Juice Futures during December 2018. In our December 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to bolded excerpts:  

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4             154.20
  • M3             150.30
  • PMH          144.90
  • MTrend     143.98                
  • Close         143.95           
  • M1             140.35
  • PML           131.80           
  • M2             128.00          
  • M5             114.15

Active traders can use 144.90 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 140.35 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a short or flat position below it.

Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for December 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  During the first three trading days of December, the price tested, and threatened to surpass, our isolated upside pivot at PMH: 144.90.  However, that resistance level and Monthly Trend, MTrend: 143.98, combined to successfully repel the market’s advance.  The price never recovered. 

The following three trading sessions were spent with the price testing, and breaking, our isolated downside pivot.  The sell signal for active traders was given.  The following twelve trading sessions were spent with price descending to, and surpassing, our next two support levels at PML: 131.80 and M2: 128.00.  The low price in December was reached on December 28th at 124.30.   

The final two trading sessions were spent with the price ascending back to, but not surpassing, our support level at M2: 128.00, now acting as resistance.

Active traders following our work completed one trade during the month.  Using closing prices, they sold-short on December 10th at 139.40, which was covered on December 31st at 125.80.  The resulting gain equaled 9.76%.   

Figure 1:

 

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We continue with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures during December 2018. In our December 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to shaded excerpts:  

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4             3033.00
  • PMH          2818.00
  • M3             2805.50
  • MTrend     2799.11              
  • Close          2758.25        
  • M1             2691.25
  • M2             2649.00        
  • PML           2626.00         
  • M5             2307.25

Active traders can use 2818.00 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2691.25 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Proverbs 14:8 states, “The wisdom of the prudent is to discern his way, but the folly of fools is deceiving.”  Entering the month of December, with the market price having closed November at 2758.25, our Monthly Downside Exhaustion level of 2307.25 was considered folly by many.  However, discerning the way of the market in December by our isolated support and resistance levels proved to be both prudent, wise, and profitable.   

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for December 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines. December opened with the price testing our clustered-resistance levels at MTrend: 2799.11 / M3: 2805.50 / PMH: 2818.00 during the first trading session.  Those levels held. 

The second trading session saw the market price decline 89 points, on a settlement basis, with the low of that session testing our isolated downside pivot level at M1: 2691.25.  The sell-signal was given two sessions later, on December 6th, with the market price declining significantly below M1: 2691.25 intra-session and settling below at 2691.00.

The following five trading sessions were spent with the market price trading between our isolated downside pivot level, now acting as resistance, and November’s low price at PML: 2626.00.  On December 14th, the market settled below November’s low.  The selling intensified.  Over the following six trading sessions, the market price declined 263.75 points on a settlement basis.  December 24th’s settlement of 2341.75 was the low settlement for the month.

December 26th opened the evening-session with a trade down to 2313.00, within 0.25% of our Monthly Downside Exhaustion level.  All the President’s men colluded over Christmas Day, devising a plan to stem the weakness.  Wouldn’t you know it, strength emerged in the December 26th day-session and the market price rallied 129.25 points on a settlement basis.

The final three sessions saw limited follow-through.

Active traders following our work completed one trade during December.  Using closing prices, they sold-short on December 6th at 2691.00, which was covered on December 24th at 2341.75.  The resulting gain equaled 12.98%.

For those who read our work but do not subscribe, we would appreciate your consideration as we enter 2019.  Do you know of any other technical analyst whose work provided, in advance, such an accurate “map” as to what transpired in December?  Our analysis captured 100% of the 501-point monthly range.

Figure 2:


January 2019 Analysis

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures.  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:  

  • Quarterly Trend      2710.78       
  • Monthly Trend        2677.03
  • Weekly Trend         2515.69       
  • Current Settle         2505.25       
  • Daily Trend              2485.94

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, the impressive twelve-quarter uptrend ended in 4Q2018.  As we have stated many times, of all the levels included in our output, Quarterly Trend is the most important, because it is more secular in nature.  We have been patiently waiting for this to occur and we believe it to be a significant development.

Stepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are now “Trend Down”.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P Futures have been “Trend Down” for four weeks.

Technical analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures suggests that the market has turned lower for a sustained downtrend. In simpler, terms the bull market that followed the financial crisis may have finally come to an end.

In the intermediate-term, we anticipate a rally possibly back to clustered-resistance at Monthly Trend and Quarterly Trend, MTrend: 2677.03 / QTrend: 2710.78.  In October, a signal was given to anticipate a 2-period high, over the next four to six periods (monthly time periods). Currently, we anticipate a 2-month high in the next two to four months.  If achieved in January, the market price needs to trade above 2818.00.  The following excerpt from our April 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner highlights the importance of 2-month highs in sustained downtrends.

Where to Sell After the Initial Move in a Bear Market?

In a recent discussion with a fundamental-biased market-participant, the question was asked “At what price-level would you initiate or add-to short-positions in E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures?”  Without referencing any of our technical analysis, our answer was to sell the next two-month high.

The following charts are monthly time-periods across five significant bear markets beginning in 1968.  In each, you can see that if you followed this simple strategy, your short-sales were never significantly challenged.  In fact, these two-month highs occurred right before significant price-moves down in each respective bear.

In April, a two-month high for E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures would be realized above 2837.25.

Patience, awareness, and discipline are required.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for January are:

  • M4             3002.00
  • PMH          2814.00
  • M1             2810.00
  • MTrend     2677.03              
  • Close          2505.25        
  • PML            2313.00
  • M3             2252.25        
  • M2             2000.00        
  • M5             1808.00

Active traders can use 2814.00 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2313.00 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Given the still-relatively-large distance between monthly levels, we suggest using the weekly levels each week to guide us through the month of January.

Euro FX Futures

For the month of January, we focus on Euro FX Futures.  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of Euro FX Futures (6EH9).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate. 

Trends:  

  • Quarterly Trend     1.1678          
  • Current Settle        1.1523
  • Daily Trend            1.1513          
  • Weekly Trend        1.1458          
  • Monthly Trend       1.1437

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, Euro FX Futures have been “Trend Down” for three quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that Euro FX Futures are in “Consolidation”, after having been “Trend Down” for eight consecutive months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that Euro FX Futures have been “Trend Up” for four weeks.

Technical analysis of Euro FX Futures suggests to us that perhaps the intermediate trend is in the early stage of a reversal to higher prices.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for January are:

  • M4             1.1900
  • M3             1.1723
  • M1             1.1605
  • PMH          1.1575
  • Close         1.1523               
  • MTrend     1.1437           
  • M2             1.1392
  • PML           1.1321                       
  • M5             1.1097

Active traders can use 1.1575 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 1.1437 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a short or flat position below it.

Additional Thoughts

In the broader context of an equity discussion, a client of ours pinged us with this recently, “Looks like some temporary downside exhaustion but longer-term tops.”  We could not agree more with this sentiment, not only with regards to the equity market but with other markets as well.  As we prepared our analysis across asset-classes on the evening of December 31st, we kept coming back to this comment, a distinct puzzle began to piece itself together in our mind.

Our technical analysis of Euro FX Futures holds the key to the intermediate term in our judgment.  A weaker dollar (the Euro is ~33% of the dollar index) should support equity prices and commodity prices, with a somewhat self-re-enforcing loop.  Although not detailed in this piece, Ten-Year Note Futures need a 2-period low in the monthly time-period in the next four to six periods.  That dovetails nicely with the 2-month high needed in E-Mini S&P 500 Futures.

We suspect that over the next few months, market participants will see these 2-month highs and lows in equity markets and fixed-income markets, with both predicated on temporary strength in Euro FX Futures.  This will be the final attempt to “shake” market participants off the (anticipated) longer-term trends of Euro weakness, equity weakness, and fixed-income strength.  Viewed differently, it may be the last opportunity to position appropriately before much pain is inflicted on investors.

As always, we will let our technical analysis of each individual market determine the actions we take.  

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight to many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant, and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription, we are asking you to listen.

Cartography Corner – December 2018

J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


The Cartography Corner

A Review of November

Apple Inc.

We will begin with a review of Apple Inc. (AAPL) during November 2018. In our November 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:

  • M4             251.64
  • M1             237.27
  • PMH          233.47
  • MTrend     220.33  
  • Close         218.86           
  • M3             211.98
  • PML           206.09           
  • M2             196.88          
  • M5             182.51

Active traders can use 220.33 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 211.98 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a short or flat position below it.

Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for November 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  During the first trading day of November, the price ascended to, and closed above, our isolated upside pivot at MTrend: 220.33.  The buy signal for active traders was given.  However, Apple released quarterly earnings after the market closed on that day.  Market participants were disappointed with the earnings release and immediately started to sell Apple in the after-market hours.  The price never recovered.

The following two trading sessions were spent with the price blowing through our first-two support levels at M3: 211.98 and PML: 206.09, with the decline stopping just in front of our third support level at M2: 196.88.  The sell signal for active traders was given.  The following three trading sessions were spent with price ascending to, but not reaching, our isolated downside pivot at M3: 211.98, now acting as resistance.

The following eleven trading sessions saw Apple’s price decline hard into, and through, our monthly downside exhaustion level at M5: 182.51.  The final four trading sessions were spent with the price ascending back to, but not surpassing, our downside exhaustion level.

Active traders following our work completed two trades during the month.  Using closing prices, they bought $222.20 which was stopped out at $207.48.  They sold-short $207.48 which was covered at $176.98.  The net of the two trades was a gain of 8.08%.      

Figure 1:

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We continue with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ8) during November 2018. In our November 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:

  • M4             3024.50
  • PMH          2944.75
  • M1             2942.50
  • MTrend     2844.47  
  • Close          2711.00        
  • PML           2603.00
  • M3             2503.00        
  • M2             2341.00        
  • M5             2259.00

Active traders can use 2844.47 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2603.00 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Given the large distance between monthly levels, unless October’s low is breached, we suggest using the weekly levels each week to guide us through the month of November.

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for November 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines. October opened with the price rallying 105.50 points (closing basis) during the first five trading sessions.  We believe the surge is a classic bear-market rally.

And then the rug was pulled out from under market participants.  The following eleven trading sessions were spent with the price declining 187.00 points (closing basis) from the high close of November 7th.

The last week of November was a repeat of the first week; the price rallied 128.75 points (closing basis) from the low close of November 23rdAnother bear-market rally?

Active traders, with a monthly time-period focus, completed no trades during November.  The price-action was contained within our isolated upside and downside pivots.  Our weekly analysis accurately identified the major pivots during the month.

 

Figure 2:

December 2018 Analysis

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ8).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Monthly Trend        2799.11       
  • Current Settle         2758.25
  • Quarterly Trend      2742.72       
  • Daily Trend             2737.94       
  • Weekly Trend          2707.50

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been trading higher in price since the fourth quarter of 2015 and have been “Trend Up” for twelve straight quarters.  However, the market price spent the majority of October and November below Quarterly Trend.  Patience is required as this is a quarterly time-frame. If the price closes below the Quarterly Trend of 2742.72 the impressive twelve-quarter trend will have broken.

Stepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are now in “Consolidation”, having ended the most recent five-month uptrend.  With a December settlement below Monthly Trend, they will be “Trend Down” in the monthly time-period.   Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P Futures are in “Consolidation”.  The previous six weeks have been spent with the price trading either side of a roughly 200-point range.

Technical analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures suggests that the market is aggressively trying to turn lower for a sustained downtrend. As is typical, the shorter time periods signal a trend change first.  Conviction is gained as the longer monthly and quarterly periods confirm the change.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4             3033.00
  • PMH          2818.00
  • M3             2805.50
  • MTrend     2799.11
  • Close          2758.25        
  • M1             2691.25
  • M2             2649.00        
  • PML           2626.00         
  • M5             2307.25

Active traders can use 2818.00 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2691.25 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Given the still-relatively-large distance between monthly levels, we suggest using the weekly levels each week to guide us through the month of December

We want to stress the point that if the S&P futures close the month of December below 2742.72, the market is providing a strong signal that the nine-year-old bull market may likely be in jeopardy.

 

Orange Juice

For the month of December, we focus on Orange Juice Futures.  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of Orange Juice Futures (OJF9).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Quarterly Trend     151.39          
  • Monthly Trend       143.98
  • Current Settle        143.95          
  • Daily Trend            142.05          
  • Weekly Trend         139.54

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, Orange Juice is in “Consolidation”, after having been “Trend Down” for five quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that Orange Juice has been “Trend Down” for four months, effectively having the pulp beat out of it for a roughly 23% decline.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that Orange Juice is in “Consolidation”, after having been “Trend Down” for ten weeks.  Technical analysis of Orange Juice suggests to us that perhaps the intermediate trend is in the early stage of a reversal to higher prices.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for December are:

  • M4             154.20
  • M3             150.30
  • PMH          144.90
  • MTrend     143.98
  • Close         143.95           
  • M1             140.35
  • PML           131.80           
  • M2             128.00          
  • M5             114.15

Active traders can use 144.90 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 140.35 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a short or flat position below it.

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight to many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant, and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription, we are asking you to listen.

Cartography Corner – November 2018

J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


The Cartography Corner

By J. Brett Freeze

The monthly analysis always starts with a review of the prior month’s analysis. After the review, a new asset(s) is analyzed and trading strategies discussed. Please enjoy the October edition of The Cartography Corner.

A Review Of October

30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield

We will begin with a review of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (^TYX) during October 2018. In our October 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for October are:

  • M4             3.5330
  • M3             3.3840
  • M1             3.3490
  • PMH          3.2480
  •  Close         3.1970           
  • M2             3.1070
  • MTrend     3.0804           
  • PML           3.0350           
  • M5             2.9230

 

Active traders can use 3.2480 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level (long yields, short bonds).  Active traders can use 3.0804 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a short position below it (short yields, long bonds).

Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for October 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  October opened by spending the first two trading sessions attempting push lower than September’s closing yield of 3.197.  On the third trading session, the sell signal for active traders was given.  With the yield rising as high as 9.30 basis points above September’s high yield of 3.248, October 3rd closed the session at 3.319.

The following four trading sessions were spent with the yield blowing through our second resistance level at M1: 3.349 to, and through, our third resistance level at M3: 3.384.  The high yield for the month of October was achieved on October 5th at 3.424 (circled on the chart).  The close on October 10th at 3.398 contained the price-action for the following fourteen trading sessions.  Those sessions were spent with the yield rotating down to (and through) our isolated resistance level, now acting as support, at M1: 3.349 and up to resistance at M3: 3.384.

On the last trading session of October, the yield surpassed resistance at M3: 3.384, closing at the high yield for October at 3.402.

By following our analysis, active traders were able to realize a gain of (at least) 13.1 basis points.  Within the first five trading sessions of October, active traders monetized (at least) 58% of the monthly range. 

Figure 1:

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We continue with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ8) during October 2018. In our October 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for October are:

  • M4             3103.00
  • M1             2976.50
  • PMH          2947.00
  • M2             2939.00
  • M3             2936.00        
  • Close          2919.00
  • PML           2865.00         
  • MTrend     2856.28         
  • M5             2812.50

Active traders can use 2947.00 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2856.28 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it. 

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for October 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  October opened by spending the first three sessions hovering just under our clustered-resistance levels at M3: 2936.00 / M2: 2939.00 / PMH: 2947.00.  That the market ascent failed at those levels helps to explain why we isolated the buy level for active traders at PMH: 2947.00.  With 3 resistance levels in such close-proximity, above which existed a significant gap to higher levels, it was incumbent to make the price action prove itself.

The following four sessions were spent with the price descending to clustered-support levels at PML: 2865.00 / MTrend: 2856.28.  On October 10th (circled on the chart), those support levels were breached and the sell signal for active traders was given.

For those market participants who were unprepared, what followed next was brutally painful.  For followers of our work, October could not have been more accurately-profitable.

Our Monthly Downside Exhaustion level at M5: 2812.50 was achieved (and surpassed) on the same trading session our clustered-support levels were breached.  However, multi-time-period analysis is a key feature of our analysis and it allowed us to stay with the trade.  In addition to our monthly support and resistance levels, Figure 2 below includes three quarterly support levels represented as red-dashed lines.

On October 11th, the price descended to (and through, intra-day) Quarterly Trend and closed above it.  As we stated in our Introduction and User’s Guide, Quarterly Trend is the most important level in our analysis.  For the following four trading sessions, Quarterly Trend stopped the price descent in its tracks, with the price rotating up to (and slightly through) M5: 2812.50, now acting as resistance.

Over the following four trading sessions, the price made a renewed attack on Quarterly Trend.  On October 23rd, the price closed at 2746.25, just above that crucial support level.  During the next trading session, October 24th, Quarterly Trend was breached.

Over the following four trading sessions, the price descended to our Quarterly Downside Exhaustion level at Q5: 2601.00.  The low price for was achieved on October 29th at 2603.00.

The final two trading sessions were spent with the price ascending to QTrend: 2742.72, now acting as resistance.

The purpose of our methodology is to amplify, clarify, and punctuate support and resistance levels in the markets that we analyze.  In the month of October, our analysis accurately identified 100% of the monthly range and the intra-month pivot points.

  Figure 2:

November 2018 Analysis

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ8).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Monthly Trend        2844.47       
  • Weekly Trend         2755.17
  • Quarterly Trend      2742.72       
  • Current Settle         2711.00       
  • Daily Trend             2676.81

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been trading higher in price since the fourth quarter of 2015 and have been “Trend Up” for twelve straight quarters.  However, the current market price is now below Quarterly Trend.  Patience is required as there are still two months left until we can determine if the price closes below 2742.72 and breaks the running twelve-quarter trend.  

Stepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures are in “Consolidation”, ending the most recent five-month uptrend.  The futures contract settled the month of October significantly below Monthly Trend, erasing the previous four-months gains.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P Futures have been “Trend Down” for four weeks.  Technical analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures suggests that the market is aggressively trying to turn lower for a sustained downtrend. As is typical, the shorter time periods signal a trend change first.  Conviction is gained as the longer monthly and quarterly periods confirm the change.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:

  • M4             3024.50
  • PMH          2944.75
  • M1             2942.50
  • MTrend     2844.47
  • Close          2711.00        
  • PML           2603.00
  • M3             2503.00        
  • M2             2341.00        
  • M5             2259.00

Active traders can use 2844.47 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2603.00 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Given the large distance between monthly levels, unless October’s low is breached, we suggest using the weekly levels each week to guide us through the month of November.

Apple Inc.

For the month of November, we focus on Apple Inc. stock.  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Monthly Trend       220.33          
  • Weekly Trend        218.91
  • Current Settle        218.86          
  • Daily Trend            214.64          
  • Quarterly Trend     186.70

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, Apple Inc. has been trading higher since the third quarter of 2016 and has been “Trend Up” for nine quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that Apple Inc. has been “Trend Up” for six months.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that the Apple Inc. has been “Trend Down” for three weeks.  Technical analysis of Apple Inc. suggests to us that perhaps the intermediate trend is in the early stage of a reversal to lower prices.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for November are:

  • M4             251.64
  • M1             237.27
  • PMH          233.47
  • MTrend     220.33
  • Close         218.86           
  • M3             211.98
  • PML           206.09           
  • M2             196.88          
  • M5             182.51

Active traders can use 220.33 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 211.98 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a short or flat position below it.

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight to many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant, and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription, we are asking you to listen.

Cartography Corner – October 2018

J. Brett Freeze and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA) provides RIA Pro subscribers Cartography Corner on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework. We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

GTA presents their monthly analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


The Cartography Corner

By J. Brett Freeze

The monthly analysis always starts with a review of the prior month’s analysis. After the review, a new asset(s) is analyzed and trading strategies discussed. Please enjoy the August edition of The Cartography Corner.

A Review Of September

Cotton (#2) Futures

We will begin with a review of Cotton (#2) Futures (CTZ8) during September 2018. In our September 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for September are:

  •  M4             98.21
  • M1             90.14
  • PMH          89.98
  • MTrend     86.20                  
  • Close         82.22             
  • PML           80.60
  • M2             79.45            
  • M3             74.85            
  • M5             71.38

Active traders can use 86.20 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 79.45 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for September 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  September was a month of two-halves, almost mirror images of each other.  September opened by spending the first ten trading sessions within a 2.65-cent range, remaining above the low price of August at PML: 80.60.

The sell signal for active traders was given on September 18th, as our isolated downside pivot at M2: 79.45 was broken.  That session is circled on the graph.

The following eight sessions were spent with the price descending towards, but not reaching, our next isolated support level at M3: 74.85.  Cotton (#2) Futures settled the month of September at 76.37 cents, only 10 ticks off the low of the month.

By following our analysis, active traders were able to realize a gain of 2.74% on a close-to-close basis, measured from the day the sell signal was given versus the last session of September.

Figure 1:

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We continue with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESU8/ESZ8) during September 2018. In our September 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for September are:

  • M4             3136.50
  • M3             2987.00
  • M1             2985.50
  • PMH          2917.50              
  • Close          2902.00        
  • M2             2883.50
  • MTrend     2798.47         
  • PML           2791.00         
  • M5             2732.50

Active traders can use 2917.50 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2883.50 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for September 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  September opened by reversing the strength realized in the latter-half of the trading sessions in August.  The low intra-day price and the low settlement price were achieved on the fourth session of September.

The following eight sessions were spent with the price ascending back into the range defined by our isolated pivot levels at M2: 2883.50 and PMH: 2917.50.

On September 20th, the market price broke solidly above our upside pivot level at PMH: 2917.50 and settled at 2939.50.  That turned out to be the high settlement price for the month.

The final six trading sessions were spent with the price descending back to, and trading either side of, the previous month high at PMH: 2917.50.

Our analysis correctly isolated the important pivot points for September, however sustained follow-through was lacking in both directions.  Active traders following our analysis completed two trades during the month.  The first trade was “scratched” for zero profit, after having a maximum of 14.00 points profit.  The second trade realized a loss of 0.95%, or 18.00 points, after having a maximum profit of 7.50 points. 

Figure 2:


October Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ8)

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESZ8).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Current Settle         2919.00       
  • Daily Trend             2918.56
  • Weekly Trend         2913.86       
  • Monthly Trend        2856.28       
  • Quarterly Trend      2742.72

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been trading higher in price since the fourth quarter of 2015 and have been “Trend Up” for twelve straight quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for five months and above Monthly Trend for ten of the past twelve months.  The futures contract settled the month of September above Monthly Trend, and at an all-time high.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P Futures have been “Trend Up” for thirteen weeks.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for September are:

  • M4             3103.00
  • M1             2976.50
  • PMH          2947.00
  • M2             2939.00
  • M3             2936.00        
  • Close          2919.00
  • PML           2865.00         
  • MTrend     2856.28         
  • M5             2812.50

Active traders can use 2947.00 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  With an initial stop of 2935.00, the reward-to-risk can be calculated as follows:

Reward= 2976.50 (target) – 2948.00 (entry) = 28.50 points

Risk = 2935.00 (stop) – 2948.00 (entry) = 13.00 points

Reward / Risk = 28.50 / 13.00 = 2.2

Active traders can use 2856.28 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.  With an initial stop of 2866.00, the reward-to-risk can be calculated as follows:

Reward= 2855.00 (entry) – 2812.50 (target) = 42.50 points

Risk = 2866.00 (stop) – 2855.00 (entry) = 11.00 points

Reward / Risk = 42.50 / 11.00 = 3.9

For those active market participants with a weekly time-period focus, the same analysis can be prepared using our weekly levels each week.

30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield

For the month of October, we shift our focus from the soft-commodity market to the fixed-income market.  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (^TYX).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

(RIA Pro note: On Friday September 28th, we put out a technical alert and trade idea based on the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond  LINK)

Trends:

  • Current Settle        3.1970          
  • Daily Trend            3.1931
  • Weekly Trend        3.1699          
  • Monthly Trend       3.0804          
  • Quarterly Trend     3.0568

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield has been trading higher since the fourth quarter of 2016 and has been “Trend Up” for three quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield had been consolidating for the previous seven months, with September closing above that range.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield has been “Trend Up” for four weeks.  Technical analysis of the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield suggests to us that perhaps the intermediate trend is in the early stage of an additional acceleration to higher yields. 

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for October are:

  • M4             3.5330
  • M3             3.3840
  • M1             3.3490
  • PMH          3.2480
  • Close         3.1970           
  • M2             3.1070
  • MTrend     3.0804           
  • PML           3.0350           
  • M5             2.9230

Active traders can use 3.2480 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level (long yields, short bonds).  Active traders can use 3.0804 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a short position below it (short yields, long bonds).

 Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight to many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant, and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription, we are asking you to listen.

Cartography Corner – September 2018

RIA Pro is pleased to introduce J. Brett Freeze, CFA and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA).

GTA will be providing RIA Pro subscribers his unique brand of technical analysis on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework.  We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

Going forward, we will present his analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


The Cartography Corner

By J. Brett Freeze

The monthly analysis always starts with a review of the prior month’s analysis. After the review, a new asset(s) is analyzed and trading strategies discussed. Please enjoy the August edition of The Cartography Corner.

A Review Of August

Amazon.com, Inc.

We will begin with a review of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) during August 2018. In our August 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to green-shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for August are:

  • M4             2125.01
  • M1             1997.00
  • PMH          1880.05
  • M3             1855.08             
  • Close         1777.44         
  • M2             1721.03
  • MTrend     1693.80         
  • PML           1678.06         
  • M5             1593.02

Active traders can use 1855.08 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 1721.03 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.


Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for August 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  August opened by spending the first five trading sessions ascending to our first resistance level at M3: 1855.08.  The buy signal for active traders was given, as the close on the fifth trading session was $1862.48.  That session is circled on the graph.

The following five sessions were spent with the price ascending towards, and surpassing, the Previous Month High level at PMH: 1880.05.

Over the next four sessions, the price rotated back down to PMH and M3 which were now acting as support.  As can be seen in the graph, although briefly testing M3 intra-day on August 17th, the price did not settle below that level.

Over the next nine sessions, the price ascended to, and slightly through, our next isolated resistance level at M1: 1997.00.

By following our analysis, active traders were able to realize a gain of 8.1% on a close-to-close basis, measured from the day the buy signal was given versus the last session of August.

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We continue with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESU8) during August 2018. In our August 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to green-shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for August are:

  • M4             3005.75
  • M3             2912.50
  • M1             2903.00
  • PMH          2849.50              
  • Close          2817.00        
  • MTrend     2734.92
  • M2             2703.75        
  • PML           2698.50         
  • M5             2601.00

Active traders can use 2849.50 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2734.92 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for August 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  August opened by continuing the weakness realized in the last-few trading sessions in July.  The low settlement price was achieved on the first session of August and the low intra-day price was achieved during the second trading session.

The following four sessions were spent with the price ascending to, and through, our first resistance level isolated at PMH: 2849.50.  However, over the next five sessions, the market price descended back below PMH, completing the swing lower on August 15th at a price of 2803.00.

Over the next two sessions, the price ascended to and settled above our first resistance level at PMH: 2849.50, never looking back again.

The final ten trading sessions were spent with the price ascending to and slightly through our clustered-resistance levels at M1: 2903.00 and M3: 2912.50.

Active traders following our analysis completed two trades during the month.  The first trade was “scratched” for zero profit, after having a maximum of 10.25 points profit.  The second trade realized a profit of 2.11%, or 60.25 points. 


September Analysis

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESU8).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Daily Trend             2904.97       
  • Current Settle         2902.00
  • Weekly Trend         2867.64       
  • Monthly Trend        2798.47       
  • Quarterly Trend      2667.92

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been trading higher in price since the fourth quarter of 2015 and have been “Trend Up” for eleven straight quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for four months and above Monthly Trend for ten of the past twelve months.  The futures contract settled the month of August above Monthly Trend, and at an all-time high.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P Futures have been “Trend Up” for nine weeks.

We have written about two potentially-bearish aspects in previous commentaries, the descending triangle and the inside-month range.  We also commented on our annual support level in E-Mini S&P 500 Futures in our July commentary, stating:

“Although we do not regularly-publish our Annual support and resistance levels, it is worth bringing to your attention two important levels from them.  Annual support is isolated by our methodology at A2: 2676.50, below which is a gap lower to our annual downside exhaustion at A5: 2206.00.

To emphasize the critical nature of where the market is, we have clustered-support at Monthly Trend: 2685.19, Annual Support: 2676.50, and Quarterly Trend: 2667.92.

The price action and monthly settlement in August effectively negated the potentially-bearish aspects of the descending triangle and the inside-month range.  The combination of Annual Support and Quarterly Trend acted effectively as a “launching-pad” to new all-time-highs.

Given the fact that Annual Support held, it is now important to highlight where Annual Resistance resides.  First Annual Resistance is isolated by our methodology (and clustered) at A3: 3115.75 and A:1 3123.50, above which is a gap higher to our annual upside exhaustion at A4: 3594.00.

We hold facts in the highest regard yet, remain alert to the principle that facts can and do change.  The key phrase is flexibility of thinking, which is the opposite of stubbornness.  As our primary methodology demonstrates, we are always prepared for price action in both directions.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for September are:

  • M4             3136.50
  • M3             2987.00
  • M1             2985.50
  • PMH          2917.50
  • Close          2902.00        
  • M2             2883.50
  • MTrend     2798.47         
  • PML           2791.00         
  • M5             2732.50

Active traders can use 2917.50 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2883.50 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Cotton (#2) Futures

For the month of September, we shift our focus from the equity market to the soft-commodity market.  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of Cotton (#2) Futures (CTZ8).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Monthly Trend       86.20            
  • Daily Trend            82.65
  • Weekly Trend        82.44            
  • Current Settle        82.22            
  • Quarterly Trend     80.93

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, Cotton (#2) Futures have been trading higher in price since the fourth quarter of 2017 and have been “Trend Up” for three quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that Cotton (#2) Futures have been consolidating for three months, after a seven-month uptrend.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that Cotton (#2) Futures have been “Trend Down” for four weeks.  Technical analysis of the Cotton (#2) Futures market price suggests to us that perhaps the intermediate trend is in the early stage of turning to lower prices. 

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for September are:

  • M4             98.21
  • M1             90.14
  • PMH          89.98
  • MTrend     86.20
  • Close         82.22             
  • PML           80.60
  • M2             79.45            
  • M3             74.85            
  • M5             71.38

Active traders can use 86.20 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 79.45 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight to many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant, and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription, we are asking you to listen.

Cartography Corner

RIA Pro is pleased to introduce J. Brett Freeze, CFA and his firm Global Technical Analysis (GTA).

GTA will be providing RIA Pro subscribers his unique brand of technical analysis on a monthly basis. Brett’s analysis offers readers a truly unique brand of technical insight and risk framework.  We personally rely on Brett’s research to help better gauge market trends, their durability, and support and resistance price levels.

Going forward, we will present his analysis on a wide range of asset classes, indices, and securities. At times the analysis may agree with RIA Pro technical opinions, and other times it will run contrary to our thoughts. Our goal is not to push a single view or opinion, but provide research to help you better understand the markets. Please contact us with any questions or comments.  If you are interested in learning more about GTA’s services, please connect with them through the links provided in the article.

The link below penned by GTA provides a user’s guide and a sample of his analysis.

GTA Users Guide


The Cartography Corner

By J. Brett Freeze

The monthly analysis always starts with a review of the prior month’s analysis. After the review, a new asset(s) is analyzed and trading strategies discussed. Please enjoy the August edition of The Cartography Corner.

A Review Of August

Amazon.com, Inc.

We will begin with a review of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) during August 2018. In our August 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to green-shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for August are:

  • M4             2125.01
  • M1             1997.00
  • PMH          1880.05
  • M3             1855.08             
  • Close         1777.44         
  • M2             1721.03
  • MTrend     1693.80         
  • PML           1678.06         
  • M5             1593.02

 

Active traders can use 1855.08 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 1721.03 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.


Figure 1 below displays the daily price action for August 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  August opened by spending the first five trading sessions ascending to our first resistance level at M3: 1855.08.  The buy signal for active traders was given, as the close on the fifth trading session was $1862.48.  That session is circled on the graph.

The following five sessions were spent with the price ascending towards, and surpassing, the Previous Month High level at PMH: 1880.05.

Over the next four sessions, the price rotated back down to PMH and M3 which were now acting as support.  As can be seen in the graph, although briefly testing M3 intra-day on August 17th, the price did not settle below that level.

Over the next nine sessions, the price ascended to, and slightly through, our next isolated resistance level at M1: 1997.00.

By following our analysis, active traders were able to realize a gain of 8.1% on a close-to-close basis, measured from the day the buy signal was given versus the last session of August.

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures

We continue with a review of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESU8) during August 2018. In our August 2018 edition of The Cartography Corner, we wrote the following, with emphasis given to green-shaded excerpts:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for August are:

  • M4             3005.75
  • M3             2912.50
  • M1             2903.00
  • PMH          2849.50              
  • Close          2817.00        
  • MTrend     2734.92
  • M2             2703.75        
  • PML           2698.50         
  • M5             2601.00

Active traders can use 2849.50 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2734.92 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Figure 2 below displays the daily price action for August 2018 in a candlestick chart, with support and resistance levels isolated by our methodology represented as dashed lines.  August opened by continuing the weakness realized in the last-few trading sessions in July.  The low settlement price was achieved on the first session of August and the low intra-day price was achieved during the second trading session.

The following four sessions were spent with the price ascending to, and through, our first resistance level isolated at PMH: 2849.50.  However, over the next five sessions, the market price descended back below PMH, completing the swing lower on August 15th at a price of 2803.00.

Over the next two sessions, the price ascended to and settled above our first resistance level at PMH: 2849.50, never looking back again.

The final ten trading sessions were spent with the price ascending to and slightly through our clustered-resistance levels at M1: 2903.00 and M3: 2912.50.

Active traders following our analysis completed two trades during the month.  The first trade was “scratched” for zero profit, after having a maximum of 10.25 points profit.  The second trade realized a profit of 2.11%, or 60.25 points. 


September Analysis

We begin by providing a monthly time-period analysis of E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ESU8).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Daily Trend             2904.97       
  • Current Settle         2902.00
  • Weekly Trend         2867.64       
  • Monthly Trend        2798.47       
  • Quarterly Trend      2667.92

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been trading higher in price since the fourth quarter of 2015 and have been “Trend Up” for eleven straight quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that E-Mini S&P 500 Futures have been “Trend Up” for four months and above Monthly Trend for ten of the past twelve months.  The futures contract settled the month of August above Monthly Trend, and at an all-time high.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that E-Mini S&P Futures have been “Trend Up” for nine weeks.

We have written about two potentially-bearish aspects in previous commentaries, the descending triangle and the inside-month range.  We also commented on our annual support level in E-Mini S&P 500 Futures in our July commentary, stating:

“Although we do not regularly-publish our Annual support and resistance levels, it is worth bringing to your attention two important levels from them.  Annual support is isolated by our methodology at A2: 2676.50, below which is a gap lower to our annual downside exhaustion at A5: 2206.00.

To emphasize the critical nature of where the market is, we have clustered-support at Monthly Trend: 2685.19, Annual Support: 2676.50, and Quarterly Trend: 2667.92.

The price action and monthly settlement in August effectively negated the potentially-bearish aspects of the descending triangle and the inside-month range.  The combination of Annual Support and Quarterly Trend acted effectively as a “launching-pad” to new all-time-highs.

Given the fact that Annual Support held, it is now important to highlight where Annual Resistance resides.  First Annual Resistance is isolated by our methodology (and clustered) at A3: 3115.75 and A:1 3123.50, above which is a gap higher to our annual upside exhaustion at A4: 3594.00.

We hold facts in the highest regard yet, remain alert to the principle that facts can and do change.  The key phrase is flexibility of thinking, which is the opposite of stubbornness.  As our primary methodology demonstrates, we are always prepared for price action in both directions.

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for September are:

  • M4             3136.50
  • M3             2987.00
  • M1             2985.50
  • PMH          2917.50
  • Close          2902.00        
  • M2             2883.50
  • MTrend     2798.47         
  • PML           2791.00         
  • M5             2732.50

Active traders can use 2917.50 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 2883.50 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

 

Cotton (#2) Futures

For the month of September, we shift our focus from the equity market to the soft-commodity market.  We provide a monthly time-period analysis of Cotton (#2) Futures (CTZ8).  The same analysis can be completed for any time-period or in aggregate.

Trends:

  • Monthly Trend       86.20            
  • Daily Trend            82.65
  • Weekly Trend        82.44            
  • Current Settle        82.22            
  • Quarterly Trend     80.93

As can be seen in the quarterly chart above, Cotton (#2) Futures have been trading higher in price since the fourth quarter of 2017 and have been “Trend Up” for three quartersStepping down one level in time-period, the monthly chart shows that Cotton (#2) Futures have been consolidating for three months, after a seven-month uptrend.  Stepping down to the weekly time-period, the chart shows that Cotton (#2) Futures have been “Trend Down” for four weeks.  Technical analysis of the Cotton (#2) Futures market price suggests to us that perhaps the intermediate trend is in the early stage of turning to lower prices. 

Support/Resistance:

In isolation, monthly support and resistance levels for September are:

  • M4             98.21
  • M1             90.14
  • PMH          89.98
  • MTrend     86.20
  • Close         82.22             
  • PML           80.60
  • M2             79.45            
  • M3             74.85            
  • M5             71.38

 

Active traders can use 86.20 as the upside pivot, whereby they maintain a long position above that level.  Active traders can use 79.45 as the downside pivot, whereby they maintain a flat or short position below it.

Summary

The power of technical analysis is in its ability to reduce multi-dimensional markets into a filtered two-dimensional space of price and time.  Our methodology applies a consistent framework that identifies key measures of trend, distinct levels of support and resistance, and identification of potential trading ranges.  Our methodology can be applied to any security or index, across markets, for which we can attain a reliable price history.  We look forward to bringing you our unique brand of technical analysis and insight to many different markets.  If you are a professional market participant, and are open to discovering more, please connect with us.  We are not asking for a subscription, we are asking you to listen.