Daily Market Commentary

In a recent white paper, The Risk Of Higher US Inflation In 2026, Adam Posen and Peter Orszag argue that inflation could exceed 4 percent by year’s end. To wit, they lead the article as follows: In our view, however, […]

Quite often, investors describe economic forecasts as a hard landing (recession), a soft landing (weak growth but no recession), or no landing (moderate to strong economic growth). As evidenced by the massive rotation toward economically sensitive sectors like industrials and […]

Rather than focusing on valuation or fundamentals, momentum strategies use price behavior and relative performance to identify securities that are gaining or losing strength. One would think that, given the massive rotation trade and the resulting gaps in relative performance […]

The dollar-debasement narrative is in full swing, as evidenced by the price of precious metals. However, one look at bitcoin, which should also rally on the debasement narrative, tells you something is amiss. We do not buy into the dollar-debasement […]

Google’s parent, Alphabet, just issued $32 billion in global debt, including £1 billion of rare century bonds. Alphabet’s century bonds are called such because they do not mature for 100 years (2126). While the century bond is a small piece […]

The delayed BLS employment report came in well above expectations, showing the economy added 130k jobs in January. Furthermore, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% versus expectations of a 0.1% increase to 4.5%. The more encompassing U6 unemployment rate fell […]

The top graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows that the price of TLT, the 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has been drifting sideways for the last couple of years. Often, when a security trades in a tight range over an […]

In a blog last week titled Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade, we discussed Japan’s path to economic normalization and how it might affect a great source of global liquidity, the yen carry trade. A week after […]

As we wrote in yesterday’s Commentary, efficiently rotating between overbought and oversold sectors, factors, or stocks is a well-established method for outperforming markets. Like any strategy, the hard part is timing, or properly estimating when a pair of sectors, factors, […]