Rate Cut Odds Slip Due To Lack Of Data
As we share below, the odds of a Fed Funds rate cut at the December FOMC meeting are down to 33%. On Wednesday, there was an abrupt repricing of rate cut odds after the BLS cancelled the October employment report […]
Oracle And CoreWeave CDS Spreads Widening: Omen Or Jitters
Fear is being spread on social media that some AI players are nearing default. The evidence, some say, lies in the Bloomberg graphs below showing the widening CDS spreads of Oracle and CoreWeave. Before getting into some details about what […]
Margin Debt Sets Records: Should We Be Concerned?
There is a strong historical relationship between margin debt and the stock market. Given that margin debt just set a record at $1.18 trillion, it’s worth appreciating the mechanics that support this relationship and what it may tell us about […]
Apple Out Google In: Warren Buffett’s Latest Moves
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has long viewed Apple as its crown jewel. In early 2024, Apple shares accounted for nearly 25% of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. However, Buffett has been selling out of Apple since then, trimming its stake by […]
Is Strategy Dragging Bitcoin Down?
Bitcoin is up 2% year to date, but the share price of the world’s largest holder of Bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR – formerly MicroStrategy), is down about 30% year to date. As we have noted in the past, Strategy is a […]
The Bearish Bond Narrative Fades
Not that long ago, bond yields were rising as concerns over deficits, inflation, and a series of bad Treasury auctions were paraded through the media. We bring this to your attention as the Ten-year Treasury auction on Wednesday was on […]
Data Center Debt: Can Oracle Hang With The Big Boys?
Meta and Google recently borrowed a combined $55 billion in the corporate bond market. As we share below, this debt represents a new source of funding for data center expansion. Further, as shown in orange, Oracle tapped the private market […]
50 Year Mortgages: Pros And Cons
President Trump proposed, with the full support of Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte, that homeowners be allowed to take out 50-year mortgages. The goal is to make housing more affordable, especially for younger generations who lack real estate equity and […]
An Economic Data Flood Is Coming: Does It Matter?
Buckle Up! With the end of the government shutdown and the return to work of government employees comes a flood of economic data. Below is a list of old economic data that should be released over the coming weeks: The […]