Technical Analysis

As we get ready to review the Q4 earnings report, stocks have rallied sharply over the last two months. As we have discussed previously, it will be unsurprising that we will see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street […]

During the last week of December, I polled my Twitter followers for their outlook on the markets and the economy for 2024. The results were quite interesting, but before we look forward, we must look back at 2023 for context. […]

A stunning post from VisualCapitalist showed a poll of 8550 investors and 2700 advisors and the gap between the two of future portfolio return expectations. The poll was global; however, I will focus on this post’s domestic portfolio return expectations. […]

With 2023 behind us, what does a stellar “Santa Claus” rally tell us about what to expect? What about this year being a Presidential election year? These questions make it an excellent time to review our “investor resolutions.” However, before we […]

A recent warning by YahooFinance warns investors to sell their cash and buy bonds and stocks now as the Fed pauses. To wit: “Get out of cash now. Take advantage of some of these incredible things in the fixed-income markets, […]

In October, the markets were down 10% from the July high, bond yields were touching 5%, and talk of a coming recession was rampant. What happened? Interestingly, a Wall Street axiom says, “Sell the last Fed rate hike.” The reason […]

It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty […]

Is a stock market correction coming before the Santa Claus rally at the end of the year? It is a fascinating turn in sentiment, given that investors were convinced of the bear market’s return just a month ago. Now, investors […]

As I wrote this blog, the S&P 500 index is up roughly 17% year-to-date. Most likely, your portfolio isn’t. This is a common frustration among many investors in the market this year in particular. As discussed previously, the S&P 500 […]

Are you an “investor” or a “speculator?”  Over the last month, we have discussed the “false market narratives” that push investors to make portfolio mistakes. Such is why we previously discussed the “Investing Rules” needed to navigate volatile markets. This past week, on […]

Is the bond bear market finally over? That is the question everyone is asking now that bond prices rallied sharply following the November FOMC policy meeting. As noted in the #BullBearReport this past weekend: “On Wednesday, Jerome Powell’s speech sparked […]

While often difficult, investing rules can help us maintain our focus and investment discipline in volatile or uncertain markets. This year, such has certainly been the case with surging interest rates, expectations of a recession, and geopolitical conflicts in two […]

The “pain trade” continues to be higher into year-end. We made Such a point in January, suggesting the 2022 “correction” was complete. Let’s review what I wrote, and then we will expand on why we believe the “pain trade” is higher over the next […]

Bond valuations are cheap. Psychology in markets is always fascinating. In February 2009, I wrote “8 Reasons For A Bull Market.” While in hindsight, it is easy to see that was the right call, overall, psychology was highly negative at […]

While bond yields have risen sharply lately, fund flows into bonds tell two very different stories. We have previously written much on the recent rise in bond yields related to economic growth, event risks, and recessions. To wit: “Since rates […]

Once again, due to the ongoing lack of fiscal responsibility in Washington, the markets and the economy faced a Government shutdown. After a day of theatrics, Congress passed a “stopgap” measure that will keep the Government operating for 45 days. […]

"Compound market returns." During bullish markets, there is inevitably a regurgitation of this myth that was contrived to extract capital from retail investors and place it in the hands of Wall Street. However, the compound market returns myth was contrived from the myth that "markets always go up," therefore, it is ALWAYS a good time to invest. How often have you seen the following chart presented by an advisor suggesting if you had invested 120 years ago, you would have obtained a 10% annualized return?

While September has been a bit sloppy so far, will further weakness in October weigh on investor sentiment before the seasonally strong period begins? As shown by the S&P 500 index seasonality chart below, weakness in the last two weeks […]

“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst. If […]

Since the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022. Therefore, it is unsurprising that economic data surprised analysts’ more dire predictions last year. Of course, given the underestimation of the economy previously, […]

Mega-cap stocks continue to dominate the market in 2023. The question is, why? After all, many other great companies have arguably much better valuations and fundamentals. Yet, those companies continue to lag the market’s overall returns as the bifurcation between […]

About once a year, I have to address the issue of chasing the “10 Best Days” of the year. Statista recently presented the analysis: “There is clear evidence that market timing is difficult. Often, investors will sell early, missing out […]

Is a stock market rally coming? I think that is most likely the case. However, to understand why, we must review what we said at the beginning of July in “Complacency Seems Overly Complacent.” With bullish optimism quickly returning to […]

Government bonds or stocks? If you were picking an asset class to outperform over the next 18-24 months, which would you choose? Such was an interesting point made by Greg Feirman last week. To wit: “The market has now priced […]

There is a rhythm to the markets, and market cycle lows support bull market recoveries. Recently, Ed Yardeni made a bold prediction that the S&P 500 index could hit a high of 5400 in 2024. To wit: “Market veteran Ed […]

“Bullish measures are getting really bullish.” This is an interesting statement, given how “bearish” sentiment was in 2022. As I noted then: “Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the […]

No matter what happens, financially or economically, there is always a high number of companies regularly beating Wall Street estimates. Are Wall Street analysts that poor at predicting future corporate earnings, or is there something else potentially going on? Furthermore, […]

There is much debate as of late on the current market cycle. Is it a bear market? Maybe. But what if this is just a correction within a 40-year-long secular bull market cycle? It is a question posed by Jacques […]

Asset bubbles have been prevalent throughout history. Whether it was the “Tulip bubble” in the 1600s, the South Sea bubble of the 1700s, or the Dot.com bubble of 2000, they were all a result of excessive investor speculation. Of course, […]

A bull market in bonds is set to return with a vengeance as the Fed once again makes a policy mistake. I recently discussed the surge in bond yields noting that such events have previously led to more unwelcome market […]