Technical Analysis

“China is dumping US Treasuries to get out of the dollar.” This claim has been circulating the mainstream feeds lately, with the narrative that the “end of the dollar is near,” or “the US will lose its funding base” and […]

Since the beginning of the year, we have discussed the “reflation trade” and its impact on specific market sectors. This past weekend’s newsletter also showed some of these more extreme returns in various market sectors since the beginning of the […]

For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that “this time is different.” Bitcoin, precious metals, and AI-linked equities rose not only because of robust fundamentals, but also because investors clung to powerful narratives about inflation, […]

Market cycles are once again at the center of the investment narrative as we head into 2026. The optimism is familiar as earnings held up in 2025, the economy avoided recession, and big tech lifted the indexes. However, those victories […]

I have been a “South Park” fan for as long as I can remember, and while the show isn’t a market guidebook, its brutal satire cuts through nonsense better than many Wall Street commentaries. Just like on the show, characters […]

During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, […]

A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income […]

One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from “The Godfather.” ““These things gotta happen every […]

We’re hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidia’s valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little […]