Bull Market Genius Is A Dangerous Thing
During extended upward-trending markets that reward risk-takers and punish caution, everyone is a “bull market genius.” That dynamic flips investor psychology and, over time, creates a false sense of control. As the market continues to climb, risk appears to vanish, […]
The DPI Link To Margin Debt
A recent article by Simon White, via Bloomberg, discussed the rising cost of margin debt for investors. While his analysis below compares the cost of debt to GDP, we will also consider a more critical comparison to disposable personal income […]
A Bear Market Is A Good Thing.
One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from “The Godfather.” “โThese things gotta happen every […]
Market Bubbles: A Rational Guide To An Irrational Market
Weโre hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidiaโs valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little […]
Gold Myths Luring Investors Into Risk
In case you haven’t heard, precious metals, particularly gold, have risen sharply this year. Of course, whenever any asset class experiences a more speculative melt-up, investors are quick to rationalize why “this time is different.” In stocks, it is about […]
The Most Dangerous Era In History
We live in what Brett Arends claimed as “The Dumbest Stock Market In History,” but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base […]
Speculative Bull Runs And The Value Of A Bearish Tilt
The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about โTINAโ (There Is No Alternative), and how โthis time is different.โ But that is what […]
The Psychology Of Investing In A Zero-Risk Illusion
Every market cycle eventually changes investor psychology to believe risk has been conquered. The storylines may change, from โthis time itโs differentโ to โthe Fed has our back,โ but the psychology does not. When markets rise steadily and volatility remains […]
ChatGPT Gives Financial Advice On Volatile Markets
Following Friday’s selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question:ย ” How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?” That simple question generated an engaging and humorous take on financial advice for navigating volatile […]