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Investor Lessons From 2025 For 2026

The S&P 500 ended the first week of 2026 with a gain of roughly 1.1%, marking a positive start to the year. Notably, the index rose in four of the first five trading sessions, driven by strength in energy and financials, as well as a rotation into cyclical sectors. That rotation is something we discussed over the last several weeks, and we are now seeing value outperform growth as market breadth improves.

Precious Metals Aren’t Predicting Economic Collapse

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned.

Retail Traders Are Driving Euphoria

Recent surges in speculative stocks are among several indicators that retail traders are introducing a bit of euphoria to the stock market. In an interesting article, MarketWatch notes that Wall Street is paying close attention to speculative trading behavior among […]

Scenarios For 2025

Over the past couple of weeks and into the next few weeks, you will likely be inundated with economic forecasts and stock market scenarios for 2025. We do not want to add to your pile of scenarios, but we think […]

Sentimentrader Highlights Bad Market Breadth

Bad market breadth seems to be a hallmark of the rally off of the 2022 lows. Simply, very few stocks are leading markets higher, while many stocks languish. Consider that the equal-weighted S&P 500 index (RSP) is up 3.70% since […]

Stronger Dollar Trade: The Most Unexpected Macro Bet (Part 2)

Wall Street has piled into the dollar debasement story; however, as is always the case, when everyone is on one side of the trade, the other side becomes more compelling. In Part 1, we explored why Dollar Dominance Remains Alive […]

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Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?

The headline tape made fresh history. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, finishing up 1.43% on the week and posting its ninth consecutive weekly gain. That's the longest weekly winning streak since 2024, and only the 5th time since 1965 that has occurred. While markets previously saw weakness following such streaks, the 24- and 52-week outcomes were primarily positive, except in 1989.

The NVDA Earnings Report: Could It Pop The Gamma Bubble?

As we wrote in Yesterday’s Commentary, the broad market indexes have surged since the April lows, driven largely by a handful of technology and AI stocks and the benefit of massive options volumes. Among the leaders is Nvidia (NVDA), climbing […]

Gamma And Momentum: A Recipe For Spikes And Tears

Intel (INTC) shares have risen 90% over the past month and more than 200% since the start of the year. Its competitors, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron (MU), are posting similar gains. Many other semiconductor stocks, along with some […]