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Rotation Continues As Markets Remain Bullish
U.S. equity markets delivered mixed performance last week. Major indices generally held near record levels even as volatility increased and macro and
Investor Lessons From 2025 For 2026
The S&P 500 ended the first week of 2026 with a gain of roughly 1.1%, marking a positive start to the year. Notably, the index rose in four of the
Market Outlook For 2026
Let's start this week by wishing you a blessed, happy, and prosperous New Year. We are looking forward to spending another year working together to
The Santa Claus Rally Begins
U.S. equity markets began the holidayโshortened trading week on a firm footing. Broad gains in major indexes and the start of the Santa Claus rally
Fed’s Soft Landing Narrative Meets Economic Data
The short answer appears to be"yes." However, it seems to be narrower, later, and more fragile than the headline mythology suggests. Importantly, the
The “Double Bubble”
The Federal Reserveโs FOMC meeting this past week delivered a deeply dovish outcome for markets. The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis
Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop
Markets opened in December with a surge in optimism as retail investors regained their "bullish spirit." That improvement continues to build on the
Year-End Rally Begins
Markets surged into the Thanksgiving holiday, ending the week with substantial gains across all major U.S. indexes. The S&P 500 rose by approximately
The AI Trade: Opportunity Or Warning?
The markets experienced another volatile trading week as we head into a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 and
EBITDA And The Warnings Of Charlie Munger
This past week saw the most pronounced and coordinated rotation away from high-beta assets that weโve experienced all year. What began as routine
Repo Market: Critical Warning Or Bullish Signal
This past week, markets continued to digest earnings from key technology and AI-focused companies, as well as the lingering effects of the Federal
Fed QT Ends. What Does That Mean For Markets?
This week, the Federal Reserve acted as expected, cutting its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to a target range of 3.75% to
Retail Leverage Goes to Extremes
U.S. markets surged on Friday, setting new allโtime highs for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite as investors cheered a coolerโthanโexpected
Rally Into Year-End: 3-Reasons To “Buy Dips”
This past week delivered a sharp pickup in volatility and quick reversals, underlining how fragile the tape has become. Early in the week, markets
Market Crack Or Beginning Of Something Bigger
The market crack on Friday resulted from a defensive move as geopolitical stress, trade rhetoric, and political dysfunction triggered a sharp
Bubble In AI: Echoes Of The Past, Lessons For The Present
Markets closed the third quarter grappling with two competing forces: Jerome Powellโs warning that equities are โfairly highly valued,โ and the
Markets Detached From Economic Fundamentals
Jerome Powellโs statement this past week, that U.S. stocks appear โfairly highly valued,โ wasnโt as dramatic as Alan Greenspanโs 1996
Overbought Conditions Across Multiple Markets
The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of 2025 on Wednesday, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to
Covered Call Strategies Gone Wild
This past week delivered a trio of market-moving economic releases, CPI, PPI, and the annual employment revisions, that collectively shaped investor
Using MACD To Manage Portfolio Risk
The August employment report painted a clear picture of a cooling U.S. economy. Employers added just 22,000 jobs, far below consensus expectations,
Meme Markets: Investing vs. Entertainment
August turned out to be anything but typical for investors. Historically, the month is plagued by seasonal weakness, thinner liquidity, and
Market Valuations Don’t Matter…Until They Do
After the market slid lower all week, testing the 20-DMA on Thursday, Jerome Powellโs speech at Jackson Hole turned sentiment on a dime. The
Inflation Data Sends Markets To New Highs
U.S. equities notched fresh milestones midweek before fading into Fridayโs close. The July CPI print (headline +0.2% m/m, +2.7% y/y; core +0.3%
US Economic Growth Shows Cracks
This past week, markets were driven by trade policy shocks, monetary policy developments, and solid corporate earnings, creating a push-and-pull
Analysts Grow Bullish With Earnings Forecasts
Markets traded mixed last week as macro headwinds collided with high-stakes earnings. The S&P 500 slipped -2.36%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.17% in a
Retail Data Sends A Warning
The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,388.64, notching another fresh record high and extending one of the longest weekly winning streaks in the past three
Company Buybacks Are Surging
As markets close the week after setting fresh all-time highs, the near-term outlook remains cautiously constructive but demands more tactical
Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?
The S&P 500 closed the week in positive territory, marking another strong performance near record highs. While the index briefly hit new all-time
Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance
Markets kicked off the second half of 2025 with a strong finish to Q2, propelled by easing geopolitical fears, falling oil prices, and a
WWIII – The Death Of Another Narrative
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both set all-time highs this week. This feat seems remarkable given the barrage of negative headlines, geopolitical risks,
Oil Price Rise, Not Tariffs, Will Cause CPI To Tick Up
The market continued to trade in a back-and-forth pattern this week as it consolidated recent gains. Negative news headlines from the ongoing
The Bull Rally Continues
The market's bullish trend continued this week, and it is rapidly approaching all-time highs. However, an Israeli strike on Iran early Friday morning
Stock Market Performance As Summer Arrives
Despite a weakening unemployment report, a spat between President Trump and Elon Musk, a resurgence in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, and remaining
The Narratives Change. Markets Don’t.
Most notably, this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA. The pullback to that previous broken resistance level and subsequent bounce
An Unstoppable Bull Market?
Several times this past week, we discussed that the market was due for a corrective pullback after reaching more overbought conditions. On Friday,
Recession Probabilities Decline
This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as shown,
Earnings Revision Shows Sharp Decline
The market paused its advance before the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which was remarkably uneventful. The Fed held rates steady as expected and did not
Economic Decline Gains Momentum
This past week, two reports confirmed the economy is slowing. First, there was the weak GDP report, which showed growth of roughly one percent, after
Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility
The market rallied above the 20-DMA this past week as investors found some "silver linings" to the ongoing tariff dispute. Despite China saying "no
Is Risk Off Positioning Signaling A Market Low?
This week, the market was hit following a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in which he stated that the administration's tariffs could spark "higher
Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?
Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. That battle persisted this week as Trump raised tariffs on China to
The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market
Last week, we noted that it would not be uncommon for the market to retest recent lows. That is what happened on Monday morning before rallying
Sellable Rally Or “Buy The Dip”
The market tried to muster a rally this week, and we are beginning to see early signs of a bottom forming. However, on Friday, the impact of tariffs
Is The Correction Over?
The market tried to muster a rally this week, and we are beginning to see early signs of a bottom forming. As shown in the chart below, while bumpy,
Sell Off Accelerates As Recession Fears Emerge
Overall market performance is tracking closely to President Trump's first term as Wall Street tries to assess the impact of tariffs on earnings. The