Daily Market Commentary

The latest CPI inflation news was OK. The 0.4% headline increase is higher than in prior months but aligns with expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is .1% lower than the consensus at .2%. The report relieved Wall Street […]

Our Commentary from January 7, Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous, discussed the ‘tremendous’ investor outflows of the bond ETF- TLT. While outflows are often associated with investors being bearish, that is not always true. Nonetheless, TLT is in a bearish […]

On Monday, the S&P 500 officially made a round trip back to the same levels as election eve. The equity rally that kicked off when Donald Trump won the election has been erased. The financial media blames the recent dump […]

Fed rate cuts, tariffs, deficits, California wildfires, and other narratives bolster a growing concern that inflation will surge again. While those narratives are concerning, and some may have merit, market and survey-based inflation expectations do not confirm them. The Fed […]

Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has about $325 billion in cash, accounting for over a quarter of its portfolio—the highest percentage in over 30 years. The question begging an answer is, what is worrying Warren Buffett? We believe the answer […]

The initial reaction to Friday’s BLS jobs report was a yield surge and a sharp stock decline. Stock investors are finally noticing higher yields. While sentiment can certainly cause stocks and bonds to deviate from fundamentals, at the end of […]

The latest stock market bubble may be one of the shortest-lived bubbles in recent times. Quantum computing stocks rose in November and took off in December when Google touted the immense power of quantum computing. The following is from Google […]

As we share below, bond market sentiment, known officially as the term premium, has been almost entirely responsible for the recent surge in bond yields. Specifically, behind the move is investor concern regarding another round of inflation stemming from the […]

Bloomberg led its article “Credit Markets Signal Warning for a Relentless Equity Rally” with the following paragraph: Stocks are close to the most overvalued against corporate credit and Treasuries in about two decades. The earnings yield on S&P 500 shares, […]

Outflows from bond ETFs, such as TLT, have been tremendous over the last two months. ETFs, unlike mutual funds, allow dealers to redeem shares for the underlying securities and vice versa. The exchanges most often occur when the demand to […]

Corporate executives are sending vastly different messages to their respective investors. Based on one indicator, they must be pretty bearish, yet another reeks of bullishness. Let’s take a look at corporate executives’ Jekyll and Hyde-like behavior and try to make […]

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index on a rolling 21-day period fell below 15% late last year. That aligns with the record low set last July. Needless to say, the market’s breadth is historically horrendous. Last July, […]

While 20% gains in the S&P 500 are not uncommon, as circled below, back-to-back 20% gains have only occurred three times since 1950. The most recent back to back 20%+ gain was 2023 and 2024. Accordingly, given the rare performance […]

Over the past couple of weeks and into the next few weeks, you will likely be inundated with economic forecasts and stock market scenarios for 2025. We do not want to add to your pile of scenarios, but we think […]

AI machine learning receives most of the publicity concerning today’s technological advancements, but the potential in quantum computing is just as exciting, if not more so. There’s a fundamental difference between quantum computing and AI. Artificial intelligence utilizes classical binary […]

2024 was an unbelievable year for the S&P 500 up 28% YTD. The index constituents’ average and median returns are 15.7% and 11.8%, respectively. Altogether, this year’s index returns dwarf the long-term average S&P 500 return of 7.9% since 1928. […]

The Fed uses many inflation gauges to develop its forecasts. An important one that Powell has flagged many times is inflation expectations. However, there is a weakness in using inflation expectations as an input to the Fed’s forecasts. Inflation expectations […]

We want to take this opportunity to wish you, your family, and your loved ones a very merry and joyful Christmas. We also want to say “Thank You” for all of your support, loyal readership, and the friends we have made through sharing ideas […]

Administrative Note: We will not publish a daily market commentary tomorrow or Wednesday. Everyone at RIA Advisors would like to extend our sincere blessings to you and your families and our wishes for a very Merry Christmas. _________________ According to […]

Treasury yields rose sharply following the Fed meeting on Wednesday, yet they are collapsing in the world’s second-largest economy, China. While our economy is robust, large foreign economies, including China, struggle. Our recent article Global Conditions and Commentary, highlights the […]

As widely expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps, to 4.25-4.50%, at yesterday’s FOMC meeting. Moreover, they intimated that after cutting rates by 1% since September, they are likely to be more data-dependent, which may slow the […]

In August, the BLS revised 2024 employment growth lower by 818k jobs in its preliminary revision of its Current Employment Statistics (CES). Despite the substantial revision, more reductions to the official employment data are likely to come next month. In […]

The U.S. dollar index is up over 6% this year, almost all attributable to a post-election surge. As many developed nations show stagnant economic growth or even contraction, the U.S. economy continues to hum. Further bolstering the dollar is the […]

Yesterday’s Commentary touched on the divergence between robust economic growth in the U.S. and near-recessionary conditions in Canada. We highlighted the importance of this to U.S. investors because of the historically strong correlation between the two economies. Unfortunately, Canada is […]

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its key benchmark rate by 50bps. They have now cut by 150 bps in 2024, compared to what will likely be 100 bps for the Fed after next week’s meeting. Unlike the Fed, […]

Yesterday’s CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. […]

From 2010 through 2022, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) calculates that global oil demand grew by 10 million barrels per day (Mb/d). Over 60% of the demand growth was due to China’s phenomenal economic growth. For context, American demand […]

Material stocks have been one of the worst-performing sectors this year, lagging the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. Since the election, its relative performance versus the market has continued to worsen. Therefore, given the historical correlation between the economy and […]

Housing affordability helps explain why residential real estate transactions have reached a standstill. Over the last five years, housing prices have surged. Per the Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index, home prices from 20 of the largest cities have risen […]

Turn on CNBC, and you will notice a bright green box permanently affixed to the bottom right corner with the ever-changing price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is all the rage as market speculation across crypto and other assets is robust. Moreover, […]