PRO NEWSLETTER

August turned out to be anything but typical for investors. Historically, the month is plagued by seasonal weakness, thinner liquidity, and heightened volatility as traders position ahead of September and Q3 earnings. Over the last 30 years, August has delivered some of the poorest monthly returns on average for the S&P 500. Yet in 2025, the index defied that history, grinding higher through the month and setting new intraday records above 6,500 before finishing at 6,452. The result was a modest gain for the month, but more importantly, it marked another milestone in an already extended rally

After the market slid lower all week, testing the 20-DMA on Thursday, Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole turned sentiment on a dime. The S&P 500 returned to record highs, and the Dow surged 900 points.

U.S. equities notched fresh milestones midweek before fading into Friday’s close. The July CPI print (headline +0.2% m/m, +2.7% y/y; core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y) kept the “September cut” narrative intact. Following those reports, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new closing highs on Wednesday.

This past week, markets were driven by trade policy shocks, monetary policy developments, and solid corporate earnings, creating a push-and-pull dynamic for investor sentiment. President Trump’s announcement of sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, doubling duties on Indian imports and imposing broad levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, rekindled trade war concerns and injected fresh geopolitical risk into the outlook. However, that was offset by Apple's announcement that it would inject $600 billion into building factories in the U.S. to bypass those tariffs. The positive response to Apple's deal with the White House sent the stock and the Nasdaq higher on the week.

Markets traded mixed last week as macro headwinds collided with high-stakes earnings. The S&P 500 slipped -2.36%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.17% in a volatile tech-led week. Most of that decline came on Friday following a much weaker-than-expected jobs report and a resurgence in tariff announcements. Here are the data highlights.

The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,388.64, notching another fresh record high and extending one of the longest weekly winning streaks in the past three years. This persistent rally has been fueled by a potent combination of strong earnings from tech bellwethers, growing expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year, and an abundance of investor liquidity chasing momentum. So far, 87% of companies reporting through Thursday had beat expectations, primarily in Industrials, Financials, Healthcare, and Technology.

As markets close the week after setting fresh all-time highs, the near-term outlook remains cautiously constructive but demands more tactical positioning. Earnings season is ramping up, and early reports from sectors like consumer staples, airlines, and semiconductors have reinforced the bullish narrative, helping propel the S&P 500 to new records. However, technical indicators, including stretched RSI levels and flattening MACD histograms, signal that short-term momentum could reach exhaustion levels, particularly in mega-cap growth stocks.

The S&P 500 closed the week in positive territory, marking another strong performance near record highs. While the index briefly hit new all-time levels midweek, the rally lost some steam on Friday as investors grew cautious ahead of key inflation data and Trump's most recent tariff announcements. However, volatility remained subdued despite those announcements, as complacency remains high despite stretched valuations and upcoming catalysts.

Markets kicked off the second half of 2025 with a strong finish to Q2, propelled by easing geopolitical fears, falling oil prices, and a reaffirmation of the Fed’s dovish tone. The S&P 500 rose 3.4% in the final week of June to close at new record highs.