Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly
Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus […]
The Consumer Is Tapping Out
The recent implementation of tariffs has the media buzzing about increased recession odds as the consumer faces potentially higher costs. While recent economic reports, like the latest employment report, still show robust growth, those data points run with a lag […]
The Stock Market Warning Of A Recession?
A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation. When sentiment […]
The Risk Of A Recession Isn’t Zero
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial […]
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 […]
Affordable Care Act & The Inflation Of Healthcare
When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare […]
Economic Indicators And The Trajectory Of Earnings
Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance. Economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed […]
The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion
Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history. However, understanding corporate profitability involves more than glancing at quarterly earnings reports. At its core, the Kalecki Profit Equation provides a valuable framework, especially […]
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past […]