The risk of Fed over-tightening rises when 5% Treasury yields, a thin savings cushion and a hike-cut-hike Fed all converge at the same time. The Fed raised rates in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield has since topped 5.3%, the highest since 2007. That combination raises a question the market isn’t asking loudly enough. If […]
The economy is running bad inflation, and the bad kind is the temporary kind, which is precisely why the bond market refuses to panic. Most of the argument about inflation right now is a fight between people using the same word for two completely different things. One side sees a 3.7% headline print and starts […]
The Gen Z gambling epidemic is quietly moving a generation’s money from the market to the house, and the bill comes due later. Something changed this summer. Bank of America, which monitors money moving across its customers’ accounts, found that roughly 5% of its customers sent cash to an online betting platform in July, with […]
The viral “price of happiness” number prices a survey answer, not the thing you feel, and it’s quoted per person. The “price of happiness” chart came around again recently, and the number attached to it was as confident as ever. One widely shared version, built from a Remitly analysis, ranked 50 countries. The measure: how […]
A viral stat claims credit card delinquencies just hit their worst level since 2008. However, the New York Fed’s own data shows the opposite, and the real consumer credit stress is hiding exactly where the headlines aren’t looking. A number has been making the rounds all year, and it’s misleading. The claim: roughly 13% of […]
“What the K-shaped economy gets right, what it exaggerates, and what believing the worst version is costing a generation.” The bottom half of American households owns about 2.5% of the nation’s wealth. That number is real, and it ought to bother you. However, that number is also higher than it was in 2019 and 2015, […]
Wall Street’s latest doom thesis says the Fed is trapped and a US debt trap is nearly here, but it never names a date, and the data says the trap door isn’t opening. Every few months, a new essay declares that the US debt trap has finally sprung. The latest one making the rounds from […]
While the AI bears focus on concentration and circular financing, the last tech overbuild was financed with debt, and this one is being paid for in cash. Before I discuss why I disagree with the “AI bears,” I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a […]
Democratic Socialism promises affordability and fairness. The bill, from Caracas to Copenhagen, is something else entirely. On January 1st, a self-described democratic socialist was sworn in as mayor of the largest city in America. Weeks before that, socialist candidates swept a wave of primaries, sending the largest bloc of socialist legislators in New York history […]