Economics

Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm […]

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the […]

In times of disaster and destruction, a common narrative often emerges that rebuilding efforts will lead to economic growth. The idea that repairing damage and replacing destroyed goods creates jobs that spur consumption and stimulate economic activity is tempting. However, […]

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts, particularly those predicting an imminent recession. There are certainly many supportive data […]

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order […]

I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates. “If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?” It’s […]

A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t […]

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As shown, the latest employment report has triggered that indicator. So, […]

The future of electricity demand for everything from electric cars to Bitcoin mining to artificial intelligence may also be the cure for our debt concerns. Before you dismiss that statement, let me explain. One of the bears’ primary arguments against […]

Corporate greed is not causing inflation, despite the claims of many on the political left who failed to understand the very basics of economic supply and demand. “If you take a look at what people have, they have the money […]

As we discussed recently, Wall Street economists increasingly believe the risk of recession has fallen sharply. To wit: “Economists don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they, on average, forecast sub-1% growth in each of […]

Is immigration why employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue defying mainstream economists’ estimates? Many are asking this question as the U.S. experiences a flood of immigrants across the southern border. Concurrently, many young college graduates continue […]

One of the most interesting conundrums is the surging wealth gap in America. Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement. Such a reality starkly […]

It is long past the time that we face the fact that “Social Security” is facing a retirement crisis. In June 2022, we touched on this issue, discussing the stark realities confronting Social Security. “The program’s payouts have exceeded revenue since 2010, […]

Recently, retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession. Such would seem logical given that, historically, small capitalization companies tend to perform best during the early […]

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated […]

Economic growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown and recession due to continued increases in deficit spending. In fact, the U.S. Treasury recently reported the December budget deficit, which shows the U.S. collected $429 billion through various taxes while […]

In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply. The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a “soft landing” is at hand. However, the decline in […]

I previously discussed a slate of recessionary indicators with high correlations to recessionary onsets. However, as we head into 2024, many Wall Street economists predict a “soft landing” or “no recession” outcome for the economy. Are these recessionary indicators with […]

Democrats should start worrying about the level of debt and the increasing deficit. I previously discussed this issue when President Obama held the White House, when Marshall Auerback, via the Nation, wrote: “Delivering on big progressive ideas like Medicare for […]

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is arguably one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators. Each month, economists, the media, and investors pour over various mainstream economic indicators, from GDP to employment and inflation, to determine what […]

The recent #MacroView blog noted economists are increasingly confident the economy will avoid a recession. Such is due to strong job and retail sales data. Even Jerome Powell, in his recent speech, made note of the strength of the data. […]

Economists no longer expect a recession. Such was according to a recent WSJ survey of Wall Street economists. To wit: “In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the probability of a recession within the […]

Restrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed’s “Waterloo.” If you don’t remember, the “Battle of Waterloo” was fought on June 18th, 1815. The battle was a catastrophic defeat for the Napoleonic forces and marked […]

As the “soft landing” narrative grows, the risk of a “crisis” event in the economy increases. Will the Fed trigger another crisis event? While unknown, the risk seems likely as the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative is compromised by lagging […]

The Fed’s “soft landing” hopes are likely overly optimistic. Such was the context of the recent #BullBearReport, which discussed the long record of the Fed’s economic growth projections. To wit: “However, there is a problem with the Fed projections. They are […]

Powell’s recent Jackson Hole Summit speech was mainly as expected. Well, except for the part where Powell obfuscated the truth behind the surge in inflation. More telling was the misunderstanding of the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on long-term […]

Part one of this article discusses the potential ramifications related to policy actions that China and Japan might take. These large U.S. Treasury bondholders could temporarily upset the Treasury market, but as we opined, we do not think they threaten […]

Fitch’s recent downgrade of the U.S. debt rating alarmed investors as the deficit and debt steadily increased. The downgrade sent 10-year Treasury bond yields above 4%, causing concern about America’s deteriorating financial condition. The problem is that if radical steps […]

Since the beginning of 2022, the media has regularly warned a recession is coming. As we suggested previously, if a recession DID occur, it would be the most well-forecasted recession ever on record. “While the ‘probabilities’ of a recession in 2023 seem […]