Is A Bear Market Lurking?
Is there a bear market lurking in the shadows? Such seems to be the question everyone is asking me as of late. Over the last couple of weeks, we have reviewed the bullish and bearish cases for the market. In […]
Still A Bear Market Rally? Or, Is The Bull Back?
Is it still a “bear market rally?” After a big surge from the lows following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley thinks so. To wit: “The first quarter was one of the worst on record for […]
Bullish Or Bearish: Where Are We Now?
Bullish or bearish? What is the case for the market now? As we noted previously, having a proper market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes over time. However, another trap we potentially fall into is “confirmation bias,” “Experts in […]
Bear Squeeze? Or, Return Of The Bull?
“Bear squeeze,” or has the bull market returned? Over the last few weeks, that remains the question as the market rocketed off its lows, eclipsing both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. But is it safe to chase the markets […]
“BTFD” or “STFR” – Which Is It?
“BTFD” (Buy The F***ing Dip) or “STFR” (Sell The F***ing Rally) – which should investors do now? With the Fed now hiking rates, seemingly intent on doing so at every meeting in 2022, has the correction priced in the “bad […]
Market Perspective Is Important To Avoid Mistakes
Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With CNBC airing “Markets In Turmoil” every time the market dips, it’s no wonder investor sentiment is now the lowest we have seen financial crisis lows. Of course, as shown, extremely negative […]
An Earnings Reversion Is Coming
An earnings reversion is coming. In “earnings estimates will disappoint,” we showed the extreme bullishness of estimates entering 2022. “Despite economic growth weakening as inflation increases, liquidity reducing, and profit margins under pressure, analysts continue increasing their earnings estimates. Currently, […]
Hiking Rates Into Peak Valuations Is A Mistake
Hiking rates into a wildly overvalued market is potentially a mistake. So says Bank of America in a recent article. Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as they’ve done in the past are missing one important […]
Sell Energy Stocks? The Time May Be Approaching
“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to “sell high.” Before we […]
The Fed Put? What And Where Is It?
The “Fed put?” Exactly, what is it, and where does this mythical support reside? It isn’t surprising with the rough start to 2022, investors are hoping the Fed will look to stabilize financial markets. Of course, after more than a […]
Market Pullback Or Bear Market?
Market pullback or bear market? Such seems to be the question on everyone’s mind as of late, given the rough start to 2022 so far. There are undoubtedly many issues confronting even the most optimistic of investors currently. Geopolitical risk […]
A 50-Percent Decline Will Only Be A Correction
A 50-percent decline will only be a correction and not a bear market. I know. Right now, you are thinking, how could anyone suggest a 50-percent decline in the market is NOT a bear market. Logically you are correct. However, […]
Market Bottom? Is It In, Or More Downside Coming?
Market bottom? Is it in? That was the main question I got last week, and I even discussed it with Charles Payne of Fox Business. It’s the one answer everybody is searching for. Is it time to “load up the […]
Grantham: We’re In An Epic Bubble
Jeremy Grantham recently made headlines with his latest market outlook titled “Let The Wild Rumpus Begin.” The crux of the article gets summed up in the following paragraph. “All 2-sigma equity bubbles in developed countries have broken back to trend. […]
Market Selloff Into January
The market selloff into January rattled investors as concerns of “So Goes January, So Goes The Year” began to dampen expectations. Combined with a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a reduction in liquidity, investor concerns […]
“Passive ETFs” Are Hiding The Bear Market
Passive ETFs are hiding a bear market in stocks. That may sound like a strange statement when you look at major stock market indexes hovering near all-time highs. However, much like an iceberg, what we see on the surface hides […]
Panic Selling To Panic Buying In One Week
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
Omicron Selloff, Is It Over Yet?
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
Market Correction Before The Santa Rally Has Started
Last week, we asked if there would be a market correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?” “Investors’ ‘wish lists’ are hung by the chimney with care, hopeful the ‘Santa Claus rally’ will soon be there. While they remain ‘snug […]
“Black Friday” Plunges As Covid Variant Rattles Markets
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
Santa Claus Rally Is Coming, But Will Markets Correct First?
Investors have high hopes for the annual “Santa Claus” rally. But, could there be a correction before “Santa visits Broad and Wall?” At the moment, investors are “making their list, and checking it twice.” Sure, prices remain near all-time highs, […]
The “FOMO” Rises As Investors Push Risk Bets
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
Trade “The Off-The-Charts Bull Market”
“How do you trade this off-the-charts bull market?” That was an email question I got last week that deserves a deeper explanation. However, let me start with an excellent note from Global Macro Monitor, ironically entitled “The Off-The-Charts Bull Market.” […]
Inflation In Irrational Exuberance
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
5-Signs Stock Market Investors Are Too Bullish
As investors rush to pile into the stock market, there are 5-signs they may be getting too bullish. Such was a point we touched on in this past weekend’s newsletter: “Every week it feels like we get a new headline […]
Did The Fed Just Set The Stock Market Up For A Crash?
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, and our 401k plan manager tool.
Fundamentally Speaking: 2022 Earnings Estimates Still Too Bullish
Fundamentally speaking, there are more than a few indications that 2022 earnings estimates are still overly exuberant. However, the bullish optimism currently supports rising stock prices. Such was a point I touched on in this past weekend’s newsletter: “Overall, 56% […]
Market “Melts Up” As Economic Growth Weakens 10-29-21
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.
Technically Speaking: The Bull & Bear Market Case – Part 2
Last week’s “Technically Speaking” covered the first part of the bull and bear market case as we head into the end of the year. As we noted, investors face a conundrum between year-end seasonality and the Fed starting to taper […]
Stocks Surge As Earnings Roll-In, But Is Risk Gone? 10-22-21
The #RealInvestmentReport is our weekly newsletter which covers our thoughts on the current market environment, the risk to capital relative to the market, and how we are positioned currently. It includes our MacroView, analysis on markets and sectors, financial planning, and our 401k plan manager.