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TPA Analytics: Buy The Winners & Sell The Loser

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr 9, 2020
, TPA Analytics: Buy The Winners & Sell The LoserPRINTER FRIENDLY VERSION

Jeffrey Marcus is the President of Turning Point Analytics. Turning Point Analytics utilizes a time-tested, real world strategy that optimizes client’s entry and exit points and adds alpha. TPA defines each stock as Trend or Range to identify actionable inflection points. For more information on TPA check out: http://www.TurningPointAnalyticsllc.com


, TPA Analytics: Buy The Winners & Sell The Loser

After scanning the wreckage of the past 7 weeks, TPA believes it is time for clients to focus on the winners and shun the losers. It has been 49 calendar days since the S&P500 hit its peak on 2/19. The S&P500 has staged a historic rally and yet the benchmark is still down over 18% from the 3386 peak. As TPA discussed in yesterday’s World Snapshot, there have been two distinct groups of winners and losers in the period of the decline (2/19 to 3/23) and the period of the rally (3/23 to 4/8). During the decline, those companies most at risk from the pandemic were beaten down, while companies with less exposure or even benefits from the shutdown were less damaged. The rally off of the 3/23, saw the stocks that were hit the most in the decline rally the most. TPA said yesterday that investors were “picking up the trash” in the most recent rally.

Buying stocks on the basis of a low price or selling stocks on the basis of a high price has never been a consistently successful strategy. TPA sees the reasoning that divided the winners from the losers from 2/19 to 3/23 as prevailing for many months to come. In addition, as TPA will show in the charts below, the winners’ charts display strong technical characteristics, whereas the losers’ charts are technically weak.

In the table below, we highlight stocks that are the outperformers in both the 2/19 to 3/23 period and the period that includes both the decline and the rally (total performance from 2/19/20 to 4/8/20). These are TPA’s “winners”. We also highlight stocks that were the losers in the initial decline period and those that have underperformed over the past 7 weeks. (TPA’s universe for this analysis was the largest stocks in the DJ 30 and the NDX 100).


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Lance Roberts is a Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for RIA Advisors. He is also the host of “The Lance Roberts Podcast” and Chief Editor of the “Real Investment Advice” website and author of “Real Investment Daily” blog and “Real Investment Report“. Follow Lance on Facebook, Twitter, Linked-In and YouTube
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2020/04/09
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