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Anatomy of The Bear. Lessons from Russell Napier.

One of my annual re-reads is Russell Napier’s classic tome “Anatomy of the Bear.”

A mandatory study for every financial professional and investor who seeks to understand not only how damaging bear markets can be but also the traits which mark their bottoms. Every bear is shaken from hibernation for different reasons. However, when studying the four great bottoms of bears in 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982, there are several common traits to these horrendous cycles.  I thought it would be interesting to share them with you.

First, keep in mind, bear markets characteristically purge weakness – weak companies, weak advisors, weak investors. I want you to consider them less a bloodletting and more a cleansing of a system. There will be unsuitable investors who will never return to the market and justifiably so. Businesses that were patronized pre-Covid, will either be gone or completely reinvent. Bear markets slash equity valuations. Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean that stocks return to healthy valuations quickly after a bear departure. Some believe the global economy can turn on and off like a light switch without major repercussions. In other words,  the belief is once the worst of this horrid virus ceases,  business activity invariably will return to normal. I believe it’ll be quite the contrary.

I mentioned on the radio show in December that I expected wage growth to top out in 2019. Keep in mind, through this yet another outlier economic upheaval, there will be employers who will realize they don’t require as many employees and will let them go or cap their wages for years to rebuild profit margins. Without the tailwind of stock buybacks to equity prices, corporate employees will bear the brunt of the pain. In addition, organizations will realize many of their remaining employees are equipped to work from home and perhaps gather in-person perhaps once a month or every couple of weeks. Thus, large commercial space will no longer be required which is going to require massive reinvention by the commercial real estate industry.
The cry of nationalism will rise. Products manufactured overseas especially China, will take a hit which means Americans will face greater inflationary challenges while also dealing with muted or non-existent wage growth. We will experience ‘ more money chasing too-few goods.’ Many, especially younger generations will continue to strip themselves down to basics (I especially envision this in Generation Z;  those born in the mid-late 1990s such as my daughter Haley).  This sea-change will require most of the U.S. population to finally live below their means, dramatically downsize, reinvent, expand, the definition of wealth to include more holistic, ethereal methods that go way beyond household balance sheets and dollars.
I hope I’m wrong. So very wrong about most of what I envision for the future.
Here are several traits that every major market bottom share – courtesy of Russell Napier:

  1. Bears tend to die on low volume, at least the big bears do. 

Low volume represents a complete disinterest in stocks. Keep in mind this clearly contradicts the tenet which states that bears end with one act of massive capitulation – a  downward cascade on great volume. Those actions tend to mark the beginning of a bear cycle, not the end. A rise in volume on rebounds, falling volumes on weakness would better mark a bottoming process in a bear market.

2. Bears are tricky.

There will appear to be a recovery; an ‘all-clear’ for stock prices. It’ll suck in investors who believe the market recovery is upon us just to be financially ravaged again. Anecdotally, I know this cycle isn’t over as I still receive calls from people who are anxious to get into the market and perceive the current market a buying opportunity. At the bottom of a bear, I should be hearing great despair and clear disdain for stock investing.

3. Bears can be tenacious.

They refuse to die or at the least, quickly return to hibernation. The 1921 move from overvaluation to undervaluation took over ten years. Bear markets, where three-year price declines make overvalued equities cheap, are the exception, not the rule. As of this writing,  the Shiller P/E is at 24x – hardly a bargain.  At the bottom market cycle of the Great Recession, the Shiller CAPE was at 15x. There is still valuation adjustment ahead.

4. Bears can depart before earnings actually recover.

Investors who wait for a complete recovery in corporate earnings will arrive late to the stock-investment party.  Most likely it’s going to take a while (especially with their debt burden), for the majority of U.S. companies to reflect healthy earnings growth. CEOs who employ stock buybacks to boost EPS will be considered pariahs and gain unwanted attention from Congress and even the Executive Branch. My thought is a savvy investor should look to minimize indexing and select individual stocks with strong balance sheets which include low debt and plenty of free cash flow within sectors and industries that are nimble to adjust to the global economy post-crisis.

5. Bear market damage can be inconceivable, especially to a generation of investors who never experienced one.

The bear market of 1929-32 was characterized by an 89% decline. The average is 38% for bears;  however, averages are misleading. I have no idea how much damage this bear ultimately unleashes. The closest comparison I have is the 1929-1932 cycle. However, with the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus (and I don’t believe we’ve seen the full extent of it yet),  my best guess is a bear market contraction somewhere between the Great Depression and Great Recession. At the least, I believe we re-test lows and this bear is a 40-45% retracement from the highs.

6. Bear markets end on the return of general price stability and strong demand for durables such as autos.

In 1949, as in 1921 and 1932, a return of general price stability coincided with the end of the equity bear market. Demand and price stability of selected commodities augured well for general price stabilization.  Watch how industrial metals recover such as copper, now at the lowest levels since the fall of 2017. The Baltic Dry Index is off close to 20% so far this year. Low valuations (not there yet), when combined with a return to normalcy in the general price level, may provide the best opportunity for future above-average equity returns. We are not there.

7. Bear markets that no longer decline on bad news are a positive.

The combination of large short positions in conjunction with a market that fails to decline on bad news was overall a positive indicator of a rebound in 1921, 1932 and 1949. Also, limited stock purchases by retail investors may be considered an important building block for a bottom.  Since the worst of economic numbers haven’t been witnessed yet, there remains too much hope of a vicious recovery in stock prices as well as the overall global economies.

8. Not all bear markets lead the economy by six-to-nine months.

Generally, markets lead the economy. However, this tenet failed to hold true for the four great bears. At extreme times, the bottoms for the economy and the equity market were aligned and in several cases, the economy LED stocks higher!  It’s unclear whether this bear behaves in a similar fashion only because of massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. We’re not done with stimulus methods either. If anything, they’ve just begun! I know. Tough to fathom.

For me and the RIA Team, every bear provides an important lesson. The beast comes in all sizes; their claws differ in sharpness. However, they are all dangerous to financial wealth.

I believe the market will eventually witness a “V” shaped recovery due to unprecedented stimulus. Unfortunately, I believe the economy will remain sub-par for a long period. Here’s a vision I shared on Facebook recently:

Let me give you one example how an economy cannot turn off, then on, like a light switch.

Joe’s Donuts is closed. Joe lets his 2 employees go, at least temporarily. Joe employs his wife Emily to assist as she’s just been laid off from her job. Joe is a quick thinker. He creates pre-packaged dough-to-go bags and sells them outside the store. His sales are off 75% as most businesses around him are shuttered. Joe was able to negotiate postponement of his rent for one month but will have to pay two months in May.

Joe has a profitable business but he’s already eaten through a quarter of his cash reserves to pay for supplies, maintain expenses to keep going. He can’t afford another month of quarantine.

The quarantine is lifted May 1 (best case scenario). Joe’s establishment is open! He’s hesitant to have employees return because he wants to gauge business for a month. He discovers that business is still off 40% from last year at the same time. Why? Because his patrons have either been let go or in repair of ravaged household balance sheets. In addition, he notices that purchasing boxes of donuts for office meetings is way off.

Joe contacts his former 2 employees. He tells them he still doesn’t require them. He’s handling the traffic sufficiently alone at this time. Joe now owes 2 months of rent. He takes one month from the business’ reserve account; distributes another from his retirement account.

Joe’s wife Ellen has been called back to work by her former employer, a local car dealership. She’s been asked to work the same job, same responsibilities. However, the pay is 10% less. Out of desperation, she takes the job. Meanwhile, Joe tells Ellen that they need to find a way to continue to cut household expenses…. Well, you get the picture.

I think this is reality for at least a year after the ‘all clear.’

There’s never been a better time to catch up on reading. Russell’s book is available through Amazon. For those interested in market history,  the pages hold invaluable insights.

For me, markets are always battlefields, but I’ve survived several conflicts.

Consider “Anatomy of The Bear,” part of your financial literary war chest.

America: WILL WE FINALLY LEARN A LESSON?

Much of what passes for orthodoxy in economics and finance proves, on closer examination, to be shaky business.” The Misbehavior of Markets – by Benoit Mandelbrot & Richard L. Hudson.

If as households we do crumble financially yet another time, will this ‘outlier’ event finally teach us a valuable lesson? One we’ll never forget (again)? I mean, how many Black Swans or events that create wholesale economic and financial devastation must we endure to work diligently, effortlessly, to shore up our family’s finances?

Unfortunately, as humans, we focus on risk and financial stability too late. Always. Too. Late. We are creatures of complacency and mainstream financial advice does nothing but fuel our overconfidence bias. Only when a storm is upon us, wreaking havoc, do we seek to board the windows and secure what’s important to us. 

We’re cajoled by ‘experts’ during good times. We’re taught how outlier events occur every 1,000 years. Strange how rare occurrences aren’t so rare. They seem to happen every decade. So, let me ask you – How many times do these so-called ‘rare’ events need to occur before fiscal discipline becomes a priority for all of us?

Over the last three years, at RIA we have created several financial tenets to guard against financial vulnerability. I don’t mean to preach; I mean to teach.

I hope over the next few years, once this pandemic is past and we rummage through the economic rubble, we’ll take it upon ourselves to remain vigilant through the complacency and take the following rules to heart.

1. A painful reminder about the ‘buy and hold’ investment philosophy or whatever horrid expletive you’re probably calling it right now.

Never forget that convincing words, piles of academic studies and mined data from big-box financial retailers in pretty packages make it easy to share convincing stories to push stocks. Hopefully, investors who spent most of their time and money getting back to even remain comforted by the narratives. They’ll now do it again.

I’ll admit – I’m nonplussed by the appeal of buy-and-hold to the purists. I truly envy them.

It seems to be a “What Me Worry?” kind of existence. There seems to be an eerie comfort to throwing money into a black hole of overvalued investments and hoping that it transforms into a white light of wealth 20 years down the road (even if it’s a very dim bulb). I truly wish I could be convinced that a blind buy-and-hold fable is truth.

I so passionately want investors to achieve returns and exceed their financial life benchmarks or goals; it’s good for me too. I also would like to minimize the damage from bears. Is that too much to ask?

At Real Investment Advice we think it’s one of a money manager’s primary responsibilities.

Buy-and-hold at the core wrapped in rules of risk management is a healthy, long-term strategy to build and protect wealth. That’s what we’re doing at this juncture.

If you’re completely out of the market for an extended period, I mean zilch, zero, then stock investing may not be appropriate for you. Hey, it isn’t for everyone, especially today when the flood of central bank liquidity (I’ve never witnessed anything like it), algos (the robots), probably $4 trillion in fiscal stimulus coming, tries to stem the devastation. The bull market is dead, a bear is tricky to navigate. I am grateful to be a partner at a firm where all members understand the devastation of bear markets and are not ‘deer in headlights’ as this crisis is upon us. Take heart – the bear will die; the bull will run again. As investors we will bleed. The key is not to hemorrhage. There is a difference.

It’s not too late to undertake a quick gut check – Realize that an allocation of 10-20% to domestic and international stocks can drop 40% on average in bear markets. Investors fail to realize that diversifying between foreign and U.S. stocks doesn’t manage the risk they care about most – risk of principal loss. We are witnessing this now – one more time on the disaster hit parade. The world has become increasingly an Irwin Allen (The Poseidon Adventure; The Towering Inferno), film and we are the actors.

Let’s say your retirement plan balance is $90,000. In a conservative allocation, $18,000 (20%), may be allocated to stocks. If a bear cycle takes the stock balance down to $10,800 and makes you a bit queasy, then certainly the market doesn’t fit into your overall investment philosophy.

If you do have the intestinal fortitude to maintain an allocation to stocks, your financial partner is a buy-and-hold zealot (highly likely), and you haven’t taken profits (a tenet of risk management) or rebalanced this year, then there’s still an opportunity to do so on rallies. It’s acceptable to maintain additional cash as much as buy-and-hold purists abhor cash.   

You’re not the ‘idiot’ who sells at the bottom just because you adhere to rules of risk management.

Granted, investors can be their worst emotional enemies. If risk management rules are employed as an integration to an overall investment process, then selling at the very bottom may be avoided. From my experience, the dumbest actions of those who did sell at the bottom in March 2009, rest almost solely on their brokers.

You see, if financial professionals would have empathized with their clients and took enough (any) action to preserve capital as clients were calling with concern in late 2007, maybe, just maybe, those distressed investors wouldn’t have sold out of everything pretty much at the bottom.

The advice “not to worry, markets always come back,” regurgitated repeatedly did nothing to allay concerns; frankly hollow words made brokers appear as if they employed market blinders or were in a state of denial. They appeared ignorant, not aware of the severity of the crisis.

I listened enough to begin surgically trimming positions (I explained to clients we sought to take a scalpel, not a machete to reducing stock exposure in portfolios), and was proactive to sell clients out of a Charles Schwab bond fund described as “stable in price,” an “alternative to cash,” in November 2007 when the mutual fund share price was doing nothing but faltering.

Although Schwab portfolio management assured us in the field repeatedly that there was “nothing wrong with the fund,” and it wasn’t suffering mass redemptions, it did eventually go bust and Schwab was held accountable for lack of oversight.

Unfortunately, the company got off easy as the settlement with the SEC was nothing but a financial slap on the wrist when the fund held $13.5 billion at its peak.

You tell me this stuff isn’t rigged against retail investors? I believe differently. I always will.

Proactive behavior allowed me to maintain a semblance of stock ownership and then begin to increase exposure through the summer of 2009.  I deemed it buy-and-hold with a “protective twist.”

If your broker isn’t actively listening and is discounting concerns, it’s time to replace him or her. Answers received should be thorough and backed by analysis.

If you must invest today, consider dollar-cost averaging.

Usually, dollar-cost averaging where you add a fixed dollar amount to variable investments on a regular schedule, underperforms value or lump-sum investing. Unless the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio or CAPE exceeds 18.6 (today, it exceeds 25).

An impressive analysis and paper by Jon M. Luskin, CFP® for the Journal of Financial Planning titled “Dollar-Cost Averaging Using the CAPE Ratio: An Identifiable Trend Influencing Outperformance,” outlines how investment periods with a CAPE greater than 18.6 is beneficial to dollar-cost averaging with investment returns .45% greater than lump-sum investing.

The other side of the coin of buy-and-hold isn’t active trading.

Cop out. Lame excuse. I can’t be clearer. Not only are you branded a ‘bear’ if you employ a sell discipline, it appears that the buy-and-hold purists can’t think outside of extremes. They tend to associate selling with active trading. It’s a clever ploy designed to avoid the conversation or even the thought of a sell process. It’s just impossible.

Not it isn’t. And it isn’t active trading either. Active trading isn’t going to generate returns, just activity. Plus, if you consider that trades cost ZERO at most big-box financial retailers, transaction costs aren’t a concern anymore.

For years, the investment industry has tried to scare clients into staying fully invested in the stock market, no matter how high stocks go or what’s going on in the economy. Investors are repeatedly warned that doing anything otherwise is simply foolish because “you can’t time the market.” 

Here’s why per Lance Roberts:

“Wall Street firms, despite what the media advertising tells you, are businesses. As a business, their job is to develop and deliver products to investors in whatever form investor appetites demand…Wall Street is always happy to provide ‘products’ to the consumers they serve.

As Wall Street quickly figured out that it was far more lucrative to collect ongoing fees rather than a one-time trading commission…The mutual fund business was booming, and business was ‘brisk’ on Wall Street as profits surged.”

I’ll add:

Frankly, it’s too much work. Financial experts are primarily peddlers of managed products. They’re hired to regurgitate sell-side biased data mined from their employer’s research department. What they’re implying is they’re too busy meeting sales goals to consider risk management (the way you define it as an investor), important.

With that being said, consider other rules to protect your household for when the next ‘outlier’ event occurs (I mean, after this one).

 2. The FVC – The Financial Vulnerability Cushion.

The main purpose of the Financial Vulnerability Cushion is to fortify the foundation of a financial house. You’ve heard about maintaining three to six months of living expenses in cash for emergencies. Well, define an emergency. The car breaks down, sure. The A/C goes out? Right. Expenses such as these fit well into a three to six-month cash cushion. However, Black Swan events remind us this cushion isn’t enough.  We must finally learn to separate emergency from crisis.

Over the last six months we’ve been discussing on the radio how important it is to build a cash war chest of one to two years’ worth of living expenses and maintain it above everything else. These reserves are for crisis. A sudden job loss; major illness. Unfortunately, millions will be out of work here. Some, long term. I’m increasingly concerned about those who work in the energy sector. Never forget. Don’t listen to mainstream financial media again. Remember this time and work diligently to build a FVC.

3. Create financial rules around debt control and savings. Then stick to them. No matter what. Good times or bad.

Consider strict debt management and savings habits as the blend of robust soil which allows opportunities to be realized. Excessive debt and limited ability to buffer against financial emergencies and crisis can limit a person’s ability to take on riskier but rewarding ventures like career change, entrepreneurial endeavors and risks that may lead to significant, long-term wealth.

Mortgage debt: Primary residence mortgage = 2X gross salary.

Student loan debt:  Limited to one year’s worth of total expense, tuition, room & board, expenses.

Personal, unsecured debt (credit card, auto): No more than 25% of gross monthly household income.

4. Be smarter with credit.

Today, credit cards are used for various reasons – convenience, cash back, travel reward points and the most unfortunate, to meet ongoing living expenses in the face of structural wage stagnation. So, consider the following.

Credit Card Debt = No greater than 4% of monthly gross income.

If your household gross income is $50,000 then credit card debt shouldn’t exceed $2,000. Per WalletHub, Texas ranks 46 with $2,848 in average credit card debt.

Survival tip: Take control of your money. Contact your credit card provider today and request a lower interest rate, perhaps the favorable balance transfer rate along with delayed payments. We are in this catastrophe together and it’s the least they can do for at least the rest of the year.

Car Loan Debt-to-Income Ratio:

Cars are required like breathing here in Houston and Texas, overall. However, they are not investments. Their values do not appreciate. If anything, auto values decrease as soon as you drive away from the dealership.

Car Loan Obligation = No greater than 25% of monthly gross income.

For example, a household bringing in $60,000 a year shouldn’t have more than $15,000 in outstanding auto loan debt. In my household, the ratio is less than 10%. I drive a Toyota RAV4. Put your ego aside; consider reliability first.

As I complete interviews with media and news outlets in Houston and across the country, my heart is overwhelmed with sorrow for those who are suffering through this, yet another ‘rare’ historical episode.

Please reach out to our team with questions and for guidance.

Every question is a good question.

Never be afraid to ask.

#FPC: Tips For A Volatile Market

These last couple of weeks have been crazy in the markets, last week we saw steady declines and this week we’re yo-yoing from one of the best days in the market to date to one of the worst. It seems like the sky is falling, it always does when we get into one of these environments, but fret not we’ve been here before. The question is what will you do different this time around? Since you’re here you’re probably already doing something different in reading the Real Investment Advice Newsletter, maybe you’re a client or a RIA Pro subscriber. Those resources will help you navigate these choppy waters.

Here are a few additional tips.

  • Understand that it’s ok to take profits and pay taxes.
  • Have a discipline to your investing approach.

Wall Street promotes an “it’s always a good time to buy” philosophy, but rarely does it give advice on when to reduce risk or increase it. For Wall Street it’s always about you… well, you staying invested. Have an exit strategy or a strategy to take profits, reduce risk and eliminate areas you no longer need to invest in. Markets change and so should your investments. Set it and forget it is not good enough.

  • Buy and hold is dead.

Portfolios should be monitored and changes should be made when needed. Not only when you visit or call your advisor. Buy, hold, monitor and sell. Buy and hold is for vampires who live forever, your life is finite. Getting back to even shouldn’t be a long term strategy.

  • Diversification is all but dead.

Wall Street will claim diversification is all you need, but we all know the type of diversification Wall Street refers to is all but dead. Markets are to intertwined in 2020, global supply chains, money flows, coordinated central bank interventions and the speed of information.

  • Speed of information is a loud, but silent killer to portfolios.

Years ago someone may be shot across the globe and we’d never hear about it or if we did by the time we received the information it was old news, outdated or like the game of telephone you may have played as a child: widely inaccurate. Now we get information in minutes if not seconds.

  • Everyone is an expert.

Have a Twitter account and an opinion or following and you are automatically an expert. There are many platforms out there for people to express their views, be careful what you consume. Facebook, Twitter or any other site may be a vacuum for your thoughts or may be a sales pitch in hiding. When I hear or see information I always want to know someone’s motive.

It’s ok to have a motive or promote your business. We promote ours daily by telling people what we do inside our business, how we invest and things you should be doing inside of your own financial plan.

Just remember, most of those so-called expert were in grade school during our last market down turn.

Nothing against being young, we were all there. But more and more advisors or experts have never been through a bear market. Many of these new investing platforms haven’t been around long enough to experience one either.  A bear market or a recession does more than impact your investments it can take a part of your soul. It changes people, I’ve heard many older advisors who’ve been around the block that they may not make it through another bad market. The emotional toll and stress is real. If you’ve never experienced a bad market it’s difficult to guide people through it. All the more reason you must guard against elation and have a process surrounding your investments, your actions and your emotions.

  • Watch for the wolf in sheep’s clothing.

Fear sells. Period. We get lots of calls from readers, our daily radio show or podcast and our television interviews. A big question I get from prospects or in the form of a general question is do you guys sell annuities? Typically the reason why is they were told something bad about one, preyed on by an insurance salesman or have had a bad experience with one. I’m telling you this because just this last week I’ve had more calls asking about annuities with guarantees. Fixed annuities, fixed indexed annuities or any other that will guarantee 7%.

The reasoning for these calls is that fear sells. When markets are as volatile as they currently are we make some of our worst mistakes and the annuity sales force knows this. I’m not saying annuities are bad, just don’t get sold one and live to regret it. We believe that annuities should be planned for not sold.

  • Understand your financial plan.

Many have financial plans that use only the rosiest of data. Don’t be afraid to stress your plan, use low performance numbers, bad market returns, give yourself a raise annually-stress your plan! I’m not saying that any of those events above will happen, but what if they did? We want you to be prepared. Our job is to educate you on how all of your financial world combines to help you meet your goals and provide you with the best results and the retirement you hoped for your family.

  • Keep your cool.

This is difficult to do when you see your life’s savings eroding quickly. Markets are very reflexive when they are at extreme deviations and markets moving as quick as they have over these last couple of weeks can be a scary event. You will come out on the other side. The markets don’t just go up and no one has taken a recession out of the business cycle. It will be ok, if you work with a good advisor they have a plan, an exit strategy, maybe they’ve already reduced your equity exposure, they’ve accounted for this in your financial plan. It doesn’t feel good. Investing is difficult because we let our emotions get in the way. 

  • Just because we CAN do something doesn’t mean we should. We’re often our own worst enemy.

Our brains and gimmicky marketing often get in our way. Have you ever seen the E Trade commercial where they tell you all about your high school buddy that trades on E Trade from his yacht or the Vanguard ad with the guy next to his personal plane? When the markets go up investing can be fairly easy, but what about when markets begin to drop? Dalbar did a study in 2019 that shows since 1988 the stock market’s average return has been 10% per year, but stock fund investors have earned only 4.1% annually. Why the big difference? Fear. Human nature is for us to get into something when it’s high and get out when it’s bad. We buy high and sell low even when we know the number one rule of investing is buy low and sell high.  I need a degree in Psychology just as much as I do in Finance. We study Behavioral Finance to limit the biases, help with self control and help make rational decisions.

  • Communicate

Reach out to your advisor, we have sent numerous emails, videos, hold investor summits and one on one phone calls or meetings to discuss the overall impact and to reinforce the plan and strategy. This is when good advisors earn their keep.

If you have questions, concerns or want to know more about how to implement these strategies for your family please don’t hesitate to reach out. We’d love to help.

Three Ways to Avoid the ‘Lost Highway’ of Financial ‘Advice.’

Now boys don’t start to ramblin’ round
On this road of sin are you sorrow bound
Take my advice or you’ll curse the day
You started rollin’ down that lost highway

Hank Williams.

On the road to personal financial milestones, investors aspire to reach multiple destinations that are important to them – whether it’s saving for a college education or retirement, we all seek to assess travel risks, regularly track progress and hope to avoid hazardous conditions.

We all long to  -cheer – “I have arrived!”

However, there is imminent danger on the path to our destinations; like a low fog that hangs heavy, there are forces out there which blind and misdirect investors from the major road onto a lost highway. Unfortunately, obstacles to wealth are created by Wall Street, mainstream financial pundits and the social media they employ as a conduit of misinformation. And investors? You’re not off the hook. Your emotions are going to facilitate a major portfolio accident.

As I prepare framework for a screenplay “Lost Highway,” titled after a song written by Hank Williams, Sr., I gravitate to the Johnny Horton version which is slower, more haunting.  Consider the ‘Lost Highway’ one of regret and foreboding, a weigh station between life and death, certainty and the unknown.  Singer Johnny Horton, a spiritualist, knew for certain his demise was imminent and and it would be tragic. On November 5, 1960; at 2 am on a bridge in Milano Texas, Mr. Horton’s premonition became an unfortunate reality. More on that story later.

For now, it’s important for readers to navigate their own financial life highway and avoid the diversions which grow larger, deeper, as this bull market rages on.

As investors, let’s attempt to navigate away from these 3 financial potholes, shall we?

1 – As a retail investor, I’d avoid Twitter.

It’s called ‘FinTwit.’ A lost highway where financial experts who appear to know everything pat each other on the backs with joyous volleys of endless-scrolling bon mot. Most of these Twitter folk were running around the house in their Underoos during the last bear market or blew up portfolios during the financial crisis and conveniently chose to forget it because market recovery cures all ills – except for yours of course, because time is more valuable than money.

I mean, why not? The market recovery gave many advisors and big-box financial retailers a free pass. Of course, markets recover, don’t they? Sure they do. If you’re willing to wait a decade or so to break even. In the span of a human life, lots of events occur, lots of hair is lost, lots of wrinkles, lots of wealth stagnates over the years. The stock market is the Dorian Gray of money and the Twitter Twits believe you, as a human, have the lifespan of a vampire.

Let me show you.

Nothing wrong with Meb; he’s a very academic, smart guy.  I like his work. I understand why he shared this tweet. But as my grandfather would say – OOFA! We’re being shamed as advisors for limited exposure to international stocks. I get it. It’s a big world out there. Most investors – professionals and novices – will never seek to invest outside their borders.  And that’s a bad idea.

It’s a formidable, worldwide issue deemed Home Country Bias. However, over the last decade it’s been a fruitful endeavor for U.S. advisors  and investors to diversify mostly among U.S. stocks. International money managers should have, in hindsight, been overweight in overseas or U.S. stocks. Home-based bias has cost them. The EliteTwits would scoff at me for writing this (not that I care),  – I do not see a reason to invest in an asset class that underperforms for extended periods. I don’t find it of value to be diversified at all or at the least, greatly exposed to dormant asset classes just to ‘spread the risk.’

Diversification can indeed minimize specific company risk. If the majority of retail investors owned individual stock portfolios and sought to own ‘oil’ and ‘bleach’ in their portfolios from various countries,  diversification from an unsystemic perspective would be effective. After all, if oil stocks falter, it’s most likely food & beverage stocks are thriving or at the least, not faltering as hard as non-cyclical stocks.  Anybody you know still own individual stocks? Bueller? Heck, they don’t even split anymore.

Most investors today are encouraged to buy  baskets of stocks through index funds or their exchange-traded brethren. So, if I own an investment that represents the S&P 500  and the MSCI EAFE Index i.e; international stocks,  and one underperforms for an extended period of time, well then, why do I need to own it? Because mainstream financial media tells me so?

You must understand what diversification is and most crucial, what it isn’t. Certainly, it’s not the panacea it’s communicated to be. There’s no ‘free lunch,’ here, although I continue to hear and read this dangerous adage in the media and on Twitter. The word gets thrown around like a remedy for everything which ails a portfolio. It’s the industry’s ‘catch all’ that can lull investors into complacency, inaction.

So, who buys into this free lunch theory, again? After all, what is free on Wall Street? Investors who let their guard down, buy in to the myth of free lunches on Wall Street,  find their money on the menu.

Due to unprecedented central bank intervention, there exists extreme distortion in stock and bond prices. Global risk-averse investors have purchased bonds with a voracious appetite. The odds of negative rates even at least briefly, can manifest here in the states. As I’ve lamented on the radio show in December and January – domestic interest rates will be lower in 2020.

A way to effectively manage risk has morphed into two disparate perceptions. The investor’s definition of diversification and that of the industry has parted, leaving an asset allocation plan increasingly vulnerable.

Today, the practice of diversification is Pablum. Watered down. Reduced to a dangerous buzzword. 

What is the staid mainstream definition of diversification?

According to Investopedia – An internet reference guide on money and investments:

  • Diversification strives to smooth out unsystematic risk events in a portfolio so the positive performance of some investments neutralizes the negative performance of others. Therefore, the benefits of diversification hold only if the securities in the portfolio are not perfectly correlated.
  • Diversification benefits can be gained by investing in foreign securities because they tend to be less closely correlated with domestic investments. For example, an economic downturn in the U.S. economy may not affect Japan’s economy in the same way; therefore, having Japanese investments gives an investor a small cushion of protection against losses due to an American economic downturn.

Now let’s break down the lunch and examine how free it is. 

Unsystematic risk – This is the risk the industry seeks to help you manage. It’s the risks related to failure of a specific business or underperformance of an industry.

To wit:

  • This is a company- or industry-specific hazard that is inherent in each investment. Unsystematic risk, also known as “nonsystematic risk,” “specific risk,” “diversifiable risk” or “residual risk,” can be reduced through diversification.
  • So, by owning stocks in different companies and in different industries, as well as by owning other types of securities such as Treasuries and municipal securities, investors will be less affected by an event or decision that has a strong impact on one company, industry or investment type.

So, think of it this way: A ‘diversified’ portfolio represents a blend of investments – stocks, bonds for example, that are designed to generate returns with less overall business risk. While this information is absolutely valid, the financial industry encourages you to think of diversification as risk management, which it isn’t.

Here’s what you need to remember:

Bleach  (consumer staples) and oil (consumer cyclicals) eventually all run down-hill, in the same direction in corrections or bear markets. 

Sure, ketchup or bleach may run behind, roll slower, but the direction is the one direction that destroys wealth – SOUTH.  Large, small, international stocks. Regardless of the risk within different industries, stocks move together (they connect in down markets).

Consider:

What are the odds of one or two companies in a balanced portfolio to go bust or face an industry-specific hazard at the same time?

What’s the greater risk to you? One company going out of business or underperforming or your entire stock portfolio suffers losses great enough to change your life, alter your financial plan.

You already know the answer.

Diversification is not risk management, it’s risk reduction.

  • When your broker preaches diversification as a risk management technique, what does he or she mean?
  • It’s not risk management the pros believe in, but risk dilution.
  • There’s a difference. The misunderstanding can be painful.

To you, as an investor, diversification is believed to be risk management where portfolio losses are controlled or minimized. Think of risk management as a technique to reduce portfolio losses through down or bear cycles and the establishment of price-sell or rebalancing targets to maintain portfolio allocations. Consider risk dilution as method to spread or combine different investments of various risk to minimize volatility.

Even the best financial professionals only consider half the equation. Beware the lamb (risk management) in wolf’s clothing (risk dilution). The goal of risk dilution is to “cover all bases.” It employs vehicles, usually mutual funds, to cover every asset class so business risk can be managed. The root of the process is to spread your dollars and risk widely across and within asset classes like stocks and bonds to reduce company-specific risk.

There’s a false sense of comfort in covering your bases. Diversification in its present form is not effective reduce the risk you care about as an individual investor – risk of loss.

Today, risk dilution has become a substitute for risk management, but it should be a compliment to it. Risk dilution is a reduction of volatility or how a portfolio moves up or down in relation to the overall market. 

Risk dilution works best during rising, or up markets as since most investments move together, especially stocksThink about betting on every horse in a race.

  • In other words, a rising tide, raises all boats.

So, why is risk reduction not risk management, the prevailing sentiment?

Sales Goals: Most financial pros are saddled with aggressive sales goals. Risk dilution is a set and forget strategy. Ongoing risk management is time consuming and takes time away from the selling process. Unfortunately, the financial industry as a whole, has watered it down and broadened it to such a degree it’s become absolutely ineffective as a safeguard against losses. One reason are the sales targets that force financial representatives to spend less time with client portfolios.

Compliance Departments: A targeted diversification strategy places accountability on the advisor and poses risk to the firm. A wider approach makes it easier to vector responsibility to broad market ‘random walks’ so if a global crisis occurs and most assets move down together, an advisor and the compliance department, can “blame” everything outside their control. Here’s a perfect compliance department question: “so why isn’t this investor allocated appropriately to international stocks?” Appropriate for whom?

At RIA, we monitor global trends. We don’t believe investors need to participate in an asset class that’s been out of favor for over ten years. That doesn’t mean we won’t; it means our exposure has been minimal.  That stance can change at any time. I mean, isn’t that what your advisor is supposed to do? The average investor holding period is less than two years. So imagine attempting to convince most investors to sit on poor performance for longer than decade. In the trenches, it’s never gonna happen.

I have hundreds of examples of Twitter commentary. that will send you down a Lost Highway. To repeat, my advice to retail investors: Please avoid the medium. It’s generally unhealthy for your psyche. Yes, we’re on Twitter too because we need to be. Avoid our feed too. Follow and read the blog instead.

2 – Avoid an ‘accumulation’ mindset if you’re five years or sooner from retirement, or you may never exit the Lost Highway.

Here’s another unusual tweet. I have yet to meet an investor, average, above-average, HUMAN, over the last 30 years who’s gained 300% after losing 30%. Those who are close to retirement must avoid information like this which fosters overconfidence and complacency.

Investors five years or less until retirement must avoid FOMO or Fear Of Missing Out, when it comes to blowing up their overall asset allocations; tempted to take on more risk than they’re prepared to handle. In January when the S&P 500 was three-standard deviations above its 200-week moving average, retirees or those close to retirement were questioning their tolerance for risk even though their portfolio returns were greater than four times the personalized benchmark rate required to achieve long-term financial goals.  

Lance Roberts recently wrote: “There have only been a few points over the last 25-years where such deviations from the long-term mean were prevalent. In every case, the extensions were met by a decline, sometimes mild, sometimes much more extreme.” 

And while we were trimming gains, rebalancing and facing challenges to add money to equities for new clients, tenured ones were wondering why we were being so cautious. Now that markets have fallen precipitously, the same retirees now question why they sought greater risk in the first place.  Some of the same investors wonder why we’re buying at lower prices or dipping our pinky toe into stock waters. It’s an emotional roller-coaster that ostensibly will destroy portfolio returns.  

As we teach around town at our popular Retirement Right Lane Classes, the financial services industry preaches a wholesale accumulation mindset where every downturn is a buying opportunity. However, retirees who are need to re-create a paycheck, withdraw a fixed amount or percentage from variable assets like stocks and bonds, must realize they need to protect capital over time and severe losses must be avoided. Limited losses are inevitable. That’s the price you pay for investing in stocks. If you cannot handle an ebb and flow of risk assets, you shouldn’t be invested in the market. It’s a harsh reality; the recent downturn my serve as a valuable lesson.

James B. Sandidge, JD in his paper “Adaptive Distribution Theory,” for The Journal of Investment Consulting, describes The Butterfly Effect for retirees. The effect refers to the ability of small changes early on in a process that lead to significant impact later.

Depending on the length of this correction and damage incurred, systematic withdrawal rates may need to stay the same (do not increase cash flow requirements in any year during the first 5 that has a negative return) or reduced altogether.  James’ chart from his paper below, outlines how the sacred ‘4 percent withdrawal rule,’ can place a retiree in jeopardy if withdrawals aren’t monitored, revisited through bear market cycles.

3 – Emotions are going to be the demise of your portfolio performance.

I get it. Many investors – novice or seasoned – have forgotten markets correct; newer investors are hard-pressed to believe that bear markets are possible. I personally embrace rough markets. They provide valuable lessons, great wisdom; a dose of humility, a chance to purchase stocks at attractive prices.  Each downturn is different and I take notes. It’s through times like this I’m thankful that I’m no longer with my former employer and part of a team who employs a surgical, rules-based sell discipline.

Tenured investors need to be reminded again that portfolios fluctuate! Being all in or all out of stocks is the worst move I’ve ever witnessed. In other words, selling all stocks low, purchasing again higher or ‘when the crisis blows over’ (already too late), tells me that you my friend, should avoid stocks at all costs, through every cycle. It’s a caveman reaction that will lead to very poor returns over time. Stocks are risk assets and over the last decade, we’ve forgotten what the word ‘risk’ means.

Oh, you will bleed through bear markets; it’s crucial not to hemorrhage. Can you surgically sell through down cycles like we do at RIA? If you have solid rules to do so, yes. Should you take a chainsaw to your wealth and sell everything in a panic? No. Personally, I’m using this downturn to place cash I’ve sat on for two years, selectively, slowly, to work in stocks.  Our investment team is doing the same at RIA. We maintain a rules-based, three-prong approach to take profits, sell weak players and add to positions we believe are good opportunities. 

I pray a prolonged downturn doesn’t turn off  yet another generation of young adults from investing in equities.  These generations have embraced Twitter, so I fear the  messages they’ve taken in as gospel from the FinTwit stars over the years.  I believe the FinTwit club members with insensitive tweets which outline how Jeff Bezos lost more wealth (to help followers keep the ‘downturn in perspective,’) are nothing short of idiocy. There’s no way in hell these people deal with clients on a consistent basis. 

To keep it in perspective – Bezos, the founder of Amazon, bled close to $12 billion during the market downturn. Don’t feel bad:  He’s still worth $116 billion.  If you’re not seated at the Bezos table of wealth, big losses can derail future plans. However, an acceptable rate of loss must be accepted and built into a financial plan. Holistic investors are guided by rules; their guidebooks are their personalized financial plans. Investors who fly by the seat of their pants and get absorbed in fear and greed at bottoms and tops are going to find investing a disappointing experience.

Johnny Horton was a singer of folk/country story songs such as The Battle of New Orleans and Johnny Reb. However, my two favorites are North to Alaska and his rendition of  Hank Williams’ Lost Highway.  Mr. Horton was haunted by a premonition that he’d be killed by a drunk driver.  So much so, he cancelled his attendance for the opening of the theatrical film, North to Alaska. He was hesitant to play the famous Skyline Club in Austin.

From Arden Lambert who wrote of the fatal night:

“Soon after the gig was over, he kissed his wife Billie Jean good-bye. Jean was Hank Williams’ widow whom Horton married a year after Williams’ death in 1952. Horton gave his goodbye kiss to Jean in the same place on the same cheek where Hank had kissed her after his last gig at the Skyline.

Horton, together with his bass player Tillman Franks and manager Tommy Tomlinson, headed to Shreveport, Louisiana. From the beginning, Franks noted that Horton was driving too fast (though that wasn’t new about him as he always drove fast). Suddenly, a pick-up truck smashed head-on into Horton’s car. Horton’s companions were severely injured, and he was still alive when the ambulance came. He died, however, on their way to the hospital.”

I imagine Johnny and his bass player still driving that fatal stretch of road in Milano, Texas. Forever trapped on the Lost Highway. Two men who died way too soon.

I implore that you don’t place your portfolio and emotions on a similar road. 

Today, it’s easier than ever to do so.

Here’s Johnny’s version of the song. Let me know what you think…

#FPC: Dave Ramsey Is Right & Very Wrong About Permanent Life Insurance (Pt. 2)

Last week’s piece was on why Dave Ramsey is right and wrong about permanent life insurance and some of the reasons you may consider using a permanent life insurance policy. 

To reiterate last week’s sentiment-permanent life insurance is not for most, but if you:

  • Max out your retirement savings
  • Make too much to contribute to a Roth
  • Have accumulated a large savings account
  • Want to gain flexibility from taxes
  • Want growth, but would like some protection from high valuations
  • Have a large estate that needs estate tax protection

Keep reading…

Let’s discuss some of the benefits of these policy’s:

  • No 1099’s– your cash value isn’t taxed year to year like most non-qualified investments, in fact if used properly the funds will never be taxed
  • Distributions aren’t considered income (when done properly) so unlike your pre-tax 401K, you’ll be using these funds tax free, which will be a big deal in retirement
  • No Income limitations-that’s right say goodbye to those income limitations most are familiar with on IRA’s
  • No Contribution Limits– it’s difficult to super charge your savings in tax free or tax deferred accounts due to the contribution limits.  In 2020, you can contribute $19,500 to an employer sponsored plan with a catch-up provision of $6,500 for those over 50. In an IRA you’re much more limited. You may contribute up to $6,000 with an additional $1,000 catch up provision for workers 50 or older. Another great tool that’s finally gaining the recognition it deserves is the HAS or Health Savings Account. If you have access to an HSA an individual may contribute $3,550 and a family can contribute $7,100. If you’re maxing out all of these and hopefully utilizing a Roth you’re likely in pretty good shape, but where do those additional funds go?
  • No age requirement for distributions– cash value can be used at any time. Need funds for kid’s college, or retired early prior to 59 1/2-no problem.
  • Likelihood of tax reform impacting your policy is low– this is a little loop-hole that many think may change in the future because of the ability to grow and distribute funds on a tax free basis. With the path the government is on I’m concerned not to have this tool. The 80’s were the last time changes were made to these types of plans and current policy holders were grandfathered to have no changes made to their policies, but only impacting future policy holders. The belief is that the precedent has been set and it would be unfair to materially impact the plans already underway.
  • Creditor Protection-most all states offer some sort of creditor protection some full and some partial. Check with your state to determine how protected you are from potential creditors or judgments.

All these advantageous aspects why don’t we hear more about these types of tools or why do they get a bad wrap?

Dave Ramsey is right. They’re not for everyone. BUT for the few who already know how to save, high income earners or those just looking to be a little more strategic this could be a viable option.

I think many also have an aversion to these products because they are misunderstood or they felt the pressure of someone trying to make a hard sell. Let’s be very clear, a recommendation for such a policy should only come after a thorough financial plan is done. We often say planned, not sold, they are a complex piece to an already complicated puzzle.

Buyer Beware:

Many agents, or “financial advisors,” who sell insurance are held captive to 1 firm and 1 product or are limited in some way. Here I use the term “financial advisors” very loosely, because many are just salesman trying to make a quick buck, not advisors. Have hammer, see nail. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy or at least it shouldn’t be.

I believe any and all financial decisions should be made holistically by looking at the big picture through a telescope and then bringing it back down to each star in your universe with a microscope. Not sparing any detail. After all, each piece of the puzzle must fit and work together. Ideally, you want to work with someone who is independent from working only with one firm so they may scorch the earth to find the best policy for you and your family.

Life insurance, or an annuity, is also not a tool you put all of your funds in and if anyone advises so, RUN!

In the coming weeks we’ll discuss how to use permanent life insurance for cash accumulation or estate planning, what to look for in a policy and the different types of permanent life insurance available.

6 Considerations for Long-Term Care Coverage.

Retirement is a a continuous road; mile markers that represent age may be visualized along the path.

However, if one looks to retire at 67 and in relatively good health, it’s a challenge to comprehend what quality of life may be like at 80. It’s easy to understand how 40 may not look too different from 60 from a quality of health perspective. The stretch from 60 to 90 may be so dramatically different, it’s a challenge to envision.

How does one contemplate their own increasing frailty?

People tend to avoid the topic of long-term care which is defined as financial and caregiver resources required to perform daily activities such as bathing and dressing. Services range from temporary home health services to full-time care through assisted living or memory care. At RIA, we find that investors are hesitant to confront the topic of long-term care. It’s understandable. After all,  the mitigation of long-term care risk is expensive. People barely save enough for retirement, overall. Imagine planning for the possible additional six-figure burden of long-term care services.

Also, consumers don’t understand how coverage works, premiums have the ability to skyrocket every few years which can break constrained budgets, and insurance underwriting can be a challenge. It’s reported that over 30% of those who apply for traditional long-term care coverage are rejected for health reasons. Realistically, after age 62, premiums become cost prohibitive for consumers. It’s in their mid-sixties we find people scramble to put together some patchwork plan. We call long-term care the ‘financial elephant in the room.’ You can try to lift it, move it to another area of your financial house however, wherever you go, there it is! 

As we lament at workshops, on the radio, to clients at face-to-face meetings – heck, to anybody who’ll listen! – Long-term care expenses are the greatest threat to a secure retirement. Confounding about this specific study is that over 53% of Boomers are confident about managing long-term care costs yet the majority have nothing set aside. The results lead me to conclude there’s a strong and dangerous case of DENIAL going on here. Is there more to the story? Since 50% of middle-income Boomers maintain less than $5,000 in emergency reserves, saving for retirement AND retirement care is most likely too burdensome.

Don’t ignore the elephant. Prepare for it. If traditional long-term care insurance isn’t in your future, hope isn’t lost. Consider these alternatives.

Bankers Life Center for Secure Retirement in a study conducted by Blackstone Group in October 2018, discovered that middle-income Baby Boomers (those with an annual household income between $30 and $100,000 and have less than $1 million in investable assets), are increasingly concerned about staying healthy enough to enjoy retirement (56%). Yet, an astounding 4 in 5 (79%) of Boomers sampled have no money set aside specifically for retirement care needs.

First Step: Don’t Ignore the Elephant!

Your rightful concern, if I got you thinking, is to take a deep breath and find a Certified Financial Planner® who is also a fiduciary. In other words, your interests above all else. Financial plans laud strengths; plans also expose financial vulnerabilities that require remedy.

Per the Center For A Secure Retirement® study, six out of ten Baby Boomers have a plan for how they will fund retirement. Only one-third have a retirement long-term care strategy which leads me to believe this group is not undertaking holistic financial planning which considers every facet of a fiscal life including the possible need for long-term care from custodial to skilled nursing. I’m not surprised that 88% of Boomers who have included a retirement care strategy reported a positive impact to their overall plan.

Second Step: Cover the Spouse Who’ll Most Likely Live Longest.

I’m not going to lie; the mitigation of long-term care risk using insurance isn’t cheap.  According to the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance, the best age to apply is in your mid-fifties. To obtain coverage, the current condition of your health matters or you may not qualify. Only 38% of those age 60-69 make the cut. Even if healthy, at a point in life, especially around the mid-sixties, premiums are known to be household budget nightmare. For example, a couple both age 60 in a preferred health class can wind up paying close to $5,000 a year in premiums and will likely experience premium increases over time.

The number of insurance carriers is shrinking – down to less than 12 from more than 100. Recently, Genworth, one of the heavy hitter providers of long-term care insurance temporarily suspended sales of traditional individual policies and an annuity product designed to provide income to cover long-term costs such as nursing home stays.

If you’re astute enough to plan for retirement care and concerned about the impact of dual premiums on the household budget including saving for other goals, work with a Certified Financial Planner to create a scenario to consider at least partial coverage for the spouse with a greater probability of longevity. For example, on average, women outlive men by 7 years.

If single and do not have a reason to leave a legacy to children or grandchildren, it’s likely that asset liquidation can adequately cover a long-term care event. Again, it’s best to work with a CFP Fiduciary who can help create a liquidation strategy.

Third Step: Take the Kids Out of It. 

I’m shocked by parents who assume their adult children will take care of them or ‘take them in’ in the case of a long-term care event. Personally, I find it too painful to interrupt my daughter’s life and impact her physical, emotional and financial health by providing long-term assistance to her dad.

According to www.caregiver.org, 44 million Americans provide $37 billion hours of unpaid informal care for adult family members and friends with chronic illnesses and conditions. Women provide over 75% of caregiving support. Caregiving roles are going to do nothing but blossom in importance as the 65+ age cohort is expected to double by 2030. There will be a tremendous negative impact, financial as well as emotional, on family caregivers who will possibly need to suspend employment, dramatically interrupt their own lives to assist loved ones who require assistance with activities of daily living.

Parents must begin a dialogue with adult children to determine if or how they may become caregivers. Armed with information learned from discussion, I have helped children prepare for some form of caregiving for parents.

A 47-year-old client has added financial support for parents as a specific needs-based goal in her plan; another recently purchased a larger one-story home with an additional and easily accessible bedroom and bath. Yet another has commenced building a granny pod on his property for his elderly (and still independent), mother. All these actions have taken place due to open, continuous dialogue with parents and siblings.

In addition, elder parents have been receptive to allocating financial resources to aid caregiver children. Siblings who reside too far away to provide day-to-day support have been willing to offer financial support as well. However, these initiatives weren’t pushed on children. Children weren’t forced into a situation based on an assumption. If you’re a parent, ask children if they’d be willing to provide care. As an adult child, don’t be afraid to ask parents how they plan to cover long-term care expenses.

Fourth Step: Get Creative. 

Three out of every five financial plans I create reflect deficiencies to meet long-term care expenses. Medical insurance like Medicare does not cover long-term care expenses – a common misperception. Close to 56% of people surveyed in the Bankers Life Center study are under the false impression that Medicare covers long-term care expenses.

The Genworth Cost of Care Survey has been tracking long-term care costs across 440 regions across the United States since 2004.

Genworth’s results assume an annual 3% inflation rate. In today’s dollars a home-health aide who assists with cleaning, cooking, and other responsibilities for those who seek to age in place or require temporary assistance with activities of daily living, can cost over $45,000 a year in the Houston area. On average, these services may be required for 3 years – a hefty sum of $137,000. We use a 4.25-4.5% inflation rate for financial planning purposes to reflect recent median annual costs for assisted living and nursing home care.

As I examine long-term care policies issued recently vs. those 10 years or later, it’s glaringly obvious that coverage isn’t as comprehensive and costs more prohibitive. It will require unorthodox thinking to get the job done.

One option is to consider a reverse mortgage, specifically a home equity conversion mortgage. The horror stories about these products are way overblown. The most astute of planners and academics study and understand how for those who seek to age in place, incorporating the equity from a primary residence in a retirement income strategy or as a method to meet long-term care costs can no longer be ignored. Those who talk down these products are speaking out of lack of knowledge and falling easily for overblown, pervasive false narratives.

Reverse mortgages have several layers of costs (nothing like they were in the past), and it pays for consumers to shop around for the best deals. Understand to qualify for a reverse mortgage, the homeowner must be 62, the home must be a primary residence and the debt limited to mortgage debt. There are several ways to receive payouts.

One of the smartest strategies is to establish a reverse mortgage line of credit at age 62, leave it untapped and allowed to grow along with the value of the home. The line may be tapped for long-term care expenses if needed or to mitigate sequence of poor return risk in portfolios. Simply, in years where portfolios are down, the reverse mortgage line can be used for income thus buying time for the portfolio to recover. Once assets do recover, rebalancing proceeds or gains may be used to pay back the reverse mortgage loan consequently restoring the line of credit.

Our planning software allows our team to consider a reverse mortgage in the analysis. Those plans have a high probability of success. We explain that income is as necessary as water when it comes to retirement. For many retirees, converting the glacier of a home into the water of income using a reverse mortgage is going to be required for retirement survival and especially long-term care expenses.

American College Professor Wade Pfau along with Bob French, CFA are thought leaders on reverse mortgage education and have created the best reverse mortgage calculator I’ve studied. To access the calculator and invaluable analysis of reverse mortgages click here.

Insurance companies are currently creating products that have similar benefits of current long-term care policies along with features that allow beneficiaries to receive a policy’s full death benefit equal to or greater than the premiums paid. The long-term care coverage which is linked to a fixed-premium universal life policy, allows for payments to informal caregivers such as family or friends, does not require you to submit monthly bills and receipts, have less stringent underwriting criteria and allow an option to recover premiums paid if services are not rendered (after a specified period).

Unfortunately, to purchase these policies you’ll need to come up with a policy premium of $50,000 either in a lump sum or paid over five to ten years. However, for example, paying monthly for 10 years can be more cost effective than traditional long-term care policies, payments remain fixed throughout the period (a big plus), and there’s an opportunity to have premiums returned to you if long-term care isn’t necessary (usually five years from the time your $50,000 premium is paid in full). Benefit periods can range from 3-7 years and provide two to five times worth of premium paid for qualified long-term care expenses. As a benchmark, keep in mind the average nursing home stay is three years.

I personally went with this hybrid strategy. For a total of $60,000 in premium, I purchased six years of coverage, indexed for inflation, for a total benefit of close to $190,000.

Also,  pay closer attention to your employers’ benefits open enrollment. It’s amazing to discover how many people have bypassed or didn’t realize their employers offer long-term care insurance coverage. Those with health issues and possibly ineligible for coverage in the open marketplace will find employer-offered long-term care insurance their best deal.

Fifth Step: Formalize a Liquidation/Downsize Plan. 

Consider a liquidation/downsizing hierarchy to subsidize long-term care costs. According to a Deutsche Bank report from January 2018 titled US Wealth and Income Inequality,  a record high 30% of Americans hold no wealth outside their primary residences which makes me wonder how that group is going to fund retirement, let alone long-term care expenses.

We partner with clients who can’t afford premiums or not able to pass long-term care insurance underwriting with liquidation strategies which look to begin 3-5 years before retirement.  Liquidation of a primary residence can be a workable option especially if an individual is widowed or living alone.  Empty-nesters can aspire to sell and move into one-story smaller digs early into or before retirement to lower overall fixed costs. They include in their plan home improvements such as ramps, easy access baths, kitchen cabinets and the cost of caregiver services which complement a spouse or life partner’s long-term care responsibilities. 

Per the Center for Retirement Research from their analysis dated February 11, 2020, most older Americans prefer to age in their homes. However, it’s important to decide whether a current residence is appropriate for the task. In other words, many older Baby Boomers look to remain in large homes with empty rooms and two stories which is absolutely not practical – Especially in the face of property taxes that increase annually, sometimes dramatically! 

The Center’s paper discovered that:

  • Seventy percent of households have very stable homeownership patterns, even over several decades. They either stay in the home they own in their 50s (53 percent) or purchase a new home around retirement and stay for the rest of their life (17 percent).
  • The 30 percent of households that do move consist of two distinct subgroups. Frequent movers (14 percent) appear to face labor market challenges.  Late movers (16 percent) look like a slightly more affluent version of the households that never move, but then face a health shock that forces them out of the home that they owned into a rental unit or a long-term services and supports facility.
  • Overall, the findings largely support the narrative from prior research that most people want to age in place and move only in response to a shock.

Sixth Step: Consider Long-Term Care Riders for Permanent Life Insurance.

Permanent life insurance unlike term, builds cash value. Policies can be ‘over funded’ above the cost of insurance to allocate to a fixed interest sleeve and other investment choices attached through various calculations, to stock indexes such as the S&P 500. There is no chance of loss in cash-value accumulation therefore balances have the true opportunity to compound. 

A living benefits rider allows the insured to accelerate access to death benefits due to certain conditions such as long-term care needs and terminal illness.  There are benefits to utilizing permanent life insurance to subsidize long-term care needs. Premiums remain level (unlike long-term care insurance premiums that tend to increase on a regular basis, sometimes dramatically), second, of course unlike long-term care insurance, at least there’s life insurance or dollars at the end of the road for heirs.

In addition, underwriting for morbidity risk (long-term care) can be draconian compared to mortality risk (life insurance). In other words, medical issues that have potential to affect activities of daily living may not have the same effect on life expectancy; consumers who don’t qualify for long-term care insurance may still qualify for life insurance.  There are a couple of drawbacks to these life insurance riders:  Funds accessed during a lifetime will inevitably reduce the face value or death benefit of a life insurance policy. Second, riders cost money. So, before adding a living benefits rider, through holistic financial planning be certain you require insurance to mitigate long-term care risk. Through proper planning, we discover that four out of every ten clients have assets to liquidate or are able to self-insure.

Retirement care analysis is a deep dive into the overall retirement planning process. Unlike income planning, retirement care planning requires us to face our inevitable physical limitations and the toll it can have on personal finances along with the negative ripple effects on wealth and health of loved ones.

It’s best to expose vulnerability and plan accordingly while there’s precious time to do so.

#FPC: Dave Ramsey Is Right & Very Wrong About Permanent Life Insurance (Pt. 1)

Let’s start with the basics, Dave Ramsey is great at a couple of things, budgeting, helping people get out of debt, prioritizing material things and/or putting things in perspective. 

BUT…

There are some things where good ole Dave isn’t so great. I know this is going to surprise many of you, but you need to hear this.

DAVE RAMSEY IS NOT GOOD AT FINANCIAL PLANNING OR INVESTMENT ADVICE.

Allow me to give you some additional context. Dave is good at helping people get out of debt and make better financial decisions, in fact he’s really good. His Financial Peace University has helped so many people get on track to a better life. I’m a really big fan of Dave for the work he does, but my clients and most of our readers have graduated beyond Dave’s philosophy’s to needing more sophisticated planning and advice.

Dave Ramsey believes you should buy term life insurance and invest the rest. In theory it sounds great. For example, if you were to spend $1,000 a month on a permanent life insurance policy- according to Dave you should buy a term policy and invest the rest.

And from a RISK MANAGEMENT mindset I love the idea.

In fact, this is where you should start. Buy a term policy to protect your family. There are many factors to consider when purchasing a term policy and how much you need here are a few:

  • Loss of Income
  • Debt
  • Expenses
  • Children
  • Lifestyle
  • Age
  • Do you have insurance through work? Is it portable if you leave?

The rule of thumb is 7 to 10 times your annual salary-BUT we believe each individual should go through a thorough analysis to help determine what’s right for their family.

Now that you have your bases covered to protecting your family what’s next?

I’m making an assumption that you already have an emergency fund, established a “financial vulnerability cushion” and are wondering where to put additional funds.

Here’s what I hear often-

  • I make too much to put into a Roth IRA
  • I make too much to put into a Roth 401(k)- (no you don’t there are no income limitations)
  • I can’t make tax deductible contributions to a Traditional IRA
  • Where do I put funds?
  • Savings aren’t earning much interest,
  • I’m missing out on returns in the markets (High Yield Savings) No FOMO.
  • Or alternatively, Markets are too high to put funds to work

The list goes on and on.

What has the Financial Industry beat into our brains year after year?

 Tax Deferred Savings, Tax Deferred Savings, Tax Deferred Savings!

Times are changing. With the new Secure Act we just saw the death of the Stretch IRA and are in one of the lowest tax brackets we’ve seen in years. Not to mention the TCJA (current tax code) sunsets in 2026 and there is also a political party dead set on raising taxes if elected.  In regard to debt and taxes neither Democrat or Republican party understands a budget or how to truly curtail deficit spending. U.S. Government let me introduce you to Dave. It’s a match made in Heaven-until it causes a massive recession, but that’s beside the point. I’d expect higher taxes, not austerity.

So how will you prepare for higher taxes?

When helping clients prepare for retirement we look for not only the low hanging fruit or the obvious feel good propositions, but also some of the harder ones. Like paying taxes now.  

Right now we’re the bearers of bad news.

You don’t always retire in a lower tax bracket.

AND, most aren’t prepared for the additional stealth taxes Uncle Sam surprises you with.

Stay with me, I know I’m walking you through a dark tunnel. The light is near.

Envision yourself on a 3-legged stool. Each leg represents a different tax ramification.

  • Leg 1-Fully Taxable
  • Leg 2-Partially Taxable
  • Leg 3-Tax Free

If you could put all of your eggs in one leg where would they be?

Exactly, Leg 3-but why are so many stools so wobbly? I’ll go one step further.

  • Leg 1- 401(k)’s, 403(b)’s, Traditional IRA’s (the feel good’s)
  • Leg 2- Saving’s, Brokerage Accounts, After tax investment Vehicles
  • Leg 3- ROTH 401(k)’s, ROTH IRA’s, CASH VALUE FROM PERMANENT LIFE INSURANCE

We focus on so many other things first.  The typical sequence of savings is:

  • 401(k)
  • Savings
  • Investments

What do these all have in common? Taxes

What do we want to get away from? Taxes

Here’s how I want you to look at Leg 1- it’s not all yours. Treat these funds like a business, but you don’t own all of it Uncle Sam has some ownership in your business. However, this partnership is unlike any other-they can increase their ownership at any time therefore decreasing your probability of success in retirement.

Leg 2- the principal is yours (you’ve already paid the taxes,) but any realized growth, interest and dividends are taxable at either ordinary income levels or capital gains tax rates.

Leg 3- like leg 2 you’ve already paid the taxes, but the earning’s when all the rules are followed are tax free. For obvious reasons this is the more difficult leg to stabilize. It’s not easy, it takes some proper planning and it takes some work.

I believe everyone needs to strengthen leg 3. Most people will do it by utilizing a Roth 401k or a Roth IRA, but a few will use a permanent life insurance policy.

This is where Dave is right- for most people.

Buying term and investing the difference if you are diligent enough to do so is a great strategy for the majority of Americans living paycheck to paycheck or the saver who is doing all they can to make the sacrifices for their family, but they just can’t do much more. 

This is where Dave is wrong?

What about our typical client? These are the people who are doing all the right things, maxing out retirement contributions, maxing out their HSA’s, putting funds into their savings accounts regularly with little to no debt. Do they just keep plugging away putting additional funds into accounts that are taxable?

What about our clients who have a true estate tax problem? These are people who’ve built businesses, acquired land, built wealth with hard work, blood, sweat and tears. Do their heirs liquidate assets just to pay the tax bill?

No, no they don’t they use insurance properly.

Is permanent life insurance wrong for them, Dave?

No, they use insurance as one leg of their 3-legged stool. These are people who take a big picture holistic view, have a financial plan and have planned for these events.

Insurance is something that must be planned, not sold.

I know and hear of too many insurance agents who say everyone needs a Variable Universal Life Policy aka (VUL.) Unfortunately, many of these guys primarily sell property and casualty and are looking for a big-ticket item, the VUL. Which typically carry higher fee’s little or no guarantee’s and premiums that can change. The majority of the time a realistic plan wasn’t done, illustrations are done to show only the best case scenarios and many times the agents themselves are captive to one or two carriers and/or don’t quite know what to look for in an insurance policy or how to choose one that really fits your needs. This is the have hammer, everything is a nail syndrome.

Permanent Life Insurance when done right can play a vital role in a retiree’s financial plan, it can help provide tax free income, some provide guarantee’s to principal and offer low fee’s which help with accumulation of cash value when overfunding the contract.

Which is why we believe insurance should be planned, it’s a solution to a sophisticated problem. Insurance is also a sophisticated product, that deserves a better reputation than many give it.

  • Who doesn’t want some guarantee’s?
  • Who doesn’t want to pay 0% in taxes on distributions?
  • Who doesn’t want protection from the governments stealth taxes?
  • Who doesn’t want creditor protection?
  • Who doesn’t want to protect their family and their hard-earned funds?

I hope this post has opened your eyes to another potential avenue to explore in your plan.

Next week in Part 2, we’ll get into the nitty-gritty of different types of permanent life insurance, how to use them, what to look for in a policy and also what to stay away from.

#FPC: 5-Things You Aren’t Being Told About HSA’s.

With the passage of the SECURE ACT and the death of the STRETCH IRA there has been a lot of noise about Health Savings Accounts or HSA’s for short. The role, or lack of, that people use a Health Savings Account as investment vehicles in their financial plans has been highly debatable, but not anymore. In 2020, we are finally seeing a shift in financial advice to find ways to put funds aside and avoid taxes altogether down the road.

Health Savings Accounts are becoming common place now that employers are shifting more of the burden of Health Insurance to the employees with the use of high deductible health plans. If you don’t have access to one now, those days may be numbered.

With all of the attention HSA’s have been given; there has been an enormous amount of “advice” on how you should use these accounts. Let’s take a look at what your advisor probably isn’t telling you:

Your broker confuses an HSA and FSA.

Not everyone is eligible for a Health Savings Account, to have access to an HSA you must be in a High-Deductible Health Plan. This means your out of pocket deductibles must be at minimum $1,400 and your max out of pocket can be no greater than $6,900 for a single insured and for a family the minimum deductible can be no less than $2,800 and maximum out of pocket expenses can be no greater than $13,800 for a family in 2020.

If your health insurance plan meets those parameters you can contribute to a Health Savings Account.

The annual 2020 contribution limit, (employer+employee) is $3,550 for a single insured and $7,100 for a family. If you’re over 55 you’re allowed an additional $1,000 catch up contribution annually.

Most employers who have high deductible health plans are beginning to start HSA’s for their employees. However, if you’re not satisfied with your company’s plan or they don’t offer one you can certainly shop around for your own HSA. Keep in mind if your company offers a plan and makes contributions to your account it would be wise to use your employer’s plan. A study from the Employee Benefit Research Group found that in 2015 employers who contributed averaged an annual contribution of $948. Other more recent studies show the employer contributions typically varies by the size of the company, but varying between $750 and $1250.

When doing your own shopping, remember to check costs, ease of use and investment options available.

Flexible Spending Accounts are much different from HAS’s. They are offered through an employer-established benefit plan.  Unlike the HSA if you are self-employed, you aren’t eligible for an FSA.  A Flexible Spending Account will allow participants to put up to $2,750 annually in their account. FSA’s also provide you the ability to access funds throughout the year for qualified medical expenses even if you haven’t contributed them to the account yet.

Some Key differences: 

  • HSA’s will allow you to retain all of your funds in the account each year-even if you don’t use them.
  • An FSA may allow for a rollover of unused funds of up to $500, but only if your company agrees to it and anything remaining over the $500 will go back to the company’s coffers.
  • The HSA’s ability to make tax free contributions, allow the funds to grow tax free year after year and then make tax free withdrawals when used for medical expenses make this a great tool to utilize as part of diversifying the type of accounts in your financial plan.
  • The HSA also allows employees to retain their funds long after their employment.
  • Contributions to an HSA should stop permanently 6 months prior to starting Medicare. Medicare enrollment can be delayed past 65 if you’re still covered under an employer plan, but one should be familiar with the system and potential penalties if not enrolled properly and on time.
  • Once on Medicare you can use your HSA to pay premiums, meet deductibles and cover other qualified medical expenses.

Your broker doesn’t care about the trend in health care costs

As discussed in our RIA Financial Guardrails, the cost of health care is growing twice as fast as the typical Cost of Living Adjustment in Social Security benefits.

Healthview Services put’s out an annual report on the trends and costs of health care. In their 2018 Retirement Healthcare Costs Data Report they found that health care expenses are projected to rise at an annual rate of 4.22%. The report also found that the average healthy 65 year old couple who is retiring this year should expect to spend $363,946 in today’s dollars in health care premiums, deductibles and out-of-pocket expenses.

These are scary numbers if you ask me. Is your advisor using standard income replacement ratios of the past or are they updating their numbers annually or is this even a consideration in your overall financial plan?

In your financial plan what is your health care expense and at what % is it inflated each year?

Time and time again financial plans use unrealistic return numbers, little or no inflation and health care considerations have been either missed or an altogether after-thought. 

If you don’t know-ask your advisor what type of assumption’s they are using. This should be an easy conversation to have and if it’s a conversation you don’t feel comfortable having with your advisor it may be time to start kicking tires.

Your advisor’s job is to be your advocate and more importantly in financial planning to play devil’s advocate.

Fund your HSA over your 401(k)

Now this one tends to scare the bejesus out of people, but hear me out.  According to a 2018 Economic News Release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics the median number of years an employee stays at one job is 4.2 years. Now that number is even smaller (2.8 years) if you’re between the ages of 25-34. The trend that people are spending less time at one employer is probably why we have seen an increase in vesting schedules for employer matching contributions or an all-out stop in employer matches.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019 National Compensation study shows that of the only 64% of employers who offer a 401k plan and on average 74% take advantage of those plans. Out of the 64% who do offer a plan around half of them don’t even offer a match.  As labor markets continue to tighten hopefully we’ll see employers begin to sweeten the pot on 401(k) plans as they try to retain and entice talented workers.

Now if you’re lucky enough to get that illusive bonus of a match you must think about your company’s vesting schedule.

Companies matching contributions are vested a couple of different ways: Immediately, a cliff vesting schedule or graded vesting schedule.

  • An immediate schedule works just like it sounds once your funds are matched in your 401k the employer contribution is 100% vested. I think of that as a unicorn in this day and age, those good companies are few and far between.
  • A cliff schedule means that once you have worked at an employer for a specified period of time (think years) you will be 100% vested in their contributions. When using a cliff schedule by Federal law the company must transfer their match to you by the end of year 3.
  • A graded schedule will vest employer contributions gradually.  In many cases we see the magic number of 20% per year, but employers can’t take that any longer the six years before you are fully vested.

Why is this important? With so many people on the move looking for employment opportunities you must be mindful of your expected time with a company to make the most of any match. As people spend less time at one employer one must consider the length of how long you may continue your employment in regard to your vesting schedule. This will certainly play a factor in determining if funding an HSA prior to your 401k makes sense for you.

When funding an HSA you get to utilize a TRIPLE TAX ADVANTAGE: 

  1. Employee contributions are tax deductible,
  2. Interest is allowed to grow tax free; and,
  3. You can pull the funds out for qualified medical expenses at no tax!

This is extremely powerful and is one reason why there is so much buzz around these accounts.

NO TAX GOING IN, NO TAX ON YOUR EARNINGS AND IF YOU USE IT PROPERLY YOU WON’T BE TAXED ON THE WAY OUT!

In a traditional 401k plan your contributions are put in pretax, funds grow tax deferred and THEN your distributions are taxed when you begin to use them.

As health care expenses become a larger part of our spending in retirement it only makes sense to use an HSA to your family’s advantage.

Medicare and Cobra Payments

Unlike most other accounts utilized for retirement or health care you can use your HSA funds for not only your day to day qualified medical expenses, but also your Medicare and Cobra premiums without incurring taxes or a penalty. The ability to use the funds to pay premiums is a great benefit that is often overlooked.

As referenced earlier in our RIA Financial Guardrails. Per Medicare Trustees as reported by Savvy Medicare, a training program for financial planners, Part B and Part D insurance costs have averaged an annual increase of 5.6% and 7.7% respectively, over the last 5 years and are expected to grow by 6.9% and 10.6% over the next five years.

As inflationary pressure has been weighing on Medicare premiums and expectations for increasing costs to continue now may be a great time to start saving in your HSA.

How to invest your HSA properly

This is one of those things that when I open my computer and see article after article on how to invest aggressively in your Health Savings Accounts it makes me want to bang my head against a wall.

Let’s get this straight, an HSA has the ability to be a powerful investment vehicle with the triple tax-free benefits when used the right way. However, just like with any good financial plan you need to start by having a cushion of emergency funds. This cushion will look different for everyone, but we would recommend having at minimum 2 years of deductibles and premiums saved in a very low risk allocation before you started dipping your toes in the markets with these funds. Life has a way of slapping you upside the head from time to time, just as markets do. When life takes you for a ride we want you to be ready to access your hard earned funds should you need to use them in a medical emergency without regard for asset prices.

Do you pay top dollar for your houses, real estate or a business venture? Or are you looking for a deal? No one wants to buy anything only to have to turn around and sell it later for a loss.

Valuations are high- Not just a little bit high, but near all time. If we look at Shiller’s CAPE-10 Valuation Measures & Forward Returns we can see that current valuation levels are above what we have seen at every previous bull market.

I’m not saying we’re headed into our next recession; the momentum of this market could continue to carry on for some time. Like any other investment thoughtful allocations need to be made in late stage market cycles-especially in an account such as an HSA where you may need the funds sooner rather than later.

There is no one size fits all in the use of a Health Savings Account, but if you use these tips as a template and factor your HSA into your financial plan you’ll be well on your way to success in retirement.

SOTM 2020: State Of The Markets

“I am thrilled to report to you tonight that our economy is the best it has ever been.” – President Trump, SOTU

In the President’s “State of the Union Address” on Tuesday, he used the podium to talk up the achievements in the economy and the markets.

  • Low unemployment rates
  • Tax cuts
  • Job creation
  • Economic growth, and, of course,
  • Record high stock markets.

While it certainly is a laundry list of items he can claim credit for, it is the claim of record-high stock prices that undermines the rest of the story.

Let me explain.

The stock market should be a reflection of actual economic growth. Since corporate earnings are derived primarily from consumptive spending, corporate investments, and imports and exports, actual economic activity should be reflected in the price investors are willing to pay for the earnings being generated.

For the majority of the 20th century, this was indeed the case as corporate earnings were reflective of economic activity. The chart below shows the annual change in reported earnings, nominal GDP, and the price of the S&P 500.

Not surprisingly, as the economy grew at 6.47% annually, earnings also grew at 6.68% annually as would be expected. Since investors are willing to a premium for earnings growth, the S&P 500 grew at 9% annually over that same period.

Importantly, note that long-term economic growth has averaged 6% annually. However, as shown in the lower panel, economic growth has been running below the long-term average since 2000, but has been substantially weaker since 2007, growing at just 2% annually.

The next chart shows this weaker growth more clearly. Since the financial crisis, economic growth has failed to recover back to its long-term exponential growth trend. However, reported earnings are exceedingly deviated from what actual underlying economic growth can generate. This is due to a decade of accounting gimmickry, share buybacks, wage suppression, low interest rates, and high corporate debt levels.

The next chart looks at the deviation by looking at the market itself versus long-term economic growth. The S&P 500 and GDP have been scaled to 100, and displayed on a log-scale for comparative purposes.

The current growth trend of the economy is running well below its long-term exponential trend, but the S&P 500 is currently at the most significant deviation from that growth on record. (It should be noted that while these deviations from economic growth can last for a long-time, the eventual mean reversion always occurs.)

The Spending Mirage

Take a look at the following chart.

While the President’s claims of an exceptionally strong economy rely heavily on historically low unemployment and jobless claims numbers, historically high levels of asset prices, and strong consumer spending trends, there is an underlying deterioration which goes unaddressed.

So, here’s your pop quiz?

If consumer spending is strong, AND unemployment is near the lowest levels on record, AND interest rates are low, AND job creation is high – then why is the economy only growing at 2%?

Furthermore, if the economy was doing as well as government statistics suggest, then why does the Federal Reserve need to continue providing the economy with “emergency measures,” cutting rates, and giving “verbal guidance,” to keep the markets from crashing?

The reality is that if it wasn’t for the Government running a massive trillion-dollar fiscal deficit, economic growth would actually be recessionary.

In GDP accounting, consumption is the largest component. Of course, since it is impossible to “consume oneself to prosperity,” the ability to consume more is the result of growing debt. Furthermore, economic growth is also impacted by Government spending, as government transfer payments, including Medicaid, Medicare, disability payments, and SNAP (previously called food stamps), all contribute to the calculation.

As shown below, between the Federal Reserve’s monetary infusions and the ballooning government deficit, the S&P 500 has continued to find support.

However, nothing is “produced” by those transfer payments. They are not even funded. As a result, national debt rises every year, and that debt adds to GDP.

Another way to look at this is through tax receipts as a percentage of GDP.  If the economy was indeed “the strongest ever,” then we should see an increase in wage growth commensurate with increased economic activity. As a result of higher wages, there should be an increase in the taxes collected by the Government from wages, consumption, imports, and exports.

See the problem here?

Clearly, this is not the case as tax receipts as a percentage of GDP peaked in 2012, and have now declined to levels which historically are more coincident with economic recessions, rather than expansions. Yet, currently, because of the artificial interventions, the stock market remains well detached from what economic data is actually saying.

Corporate Profits Tell The Real Story

When it comes to the state of the market, corporate profits are the best indicator of economic strength.

The detachment of the stock market from underlying profitability guarantees poor future outcomes for investors. But, as has always been the case, the markets can certainly seem to “remain irrational longer than logic would predict,” but it never lasts indefinitely.

Profit margins are probably the most mean-reverting series in finance, and if profit margins do not mean-revert, then something has gone badly wrong with capitalism. If high profits do not attract competition, there is something wrong with the system, and it is not functioning properly.” – Jeremy Grantham

As shown, when we look at inflation-adjusted profit margins as a percentage of inflation-adjusted GDP, we see a clear process of mean-reverting activity over time. Of course, those mean reverting events are always coupled with recessions, crises, or bear markets.

More importantly, corporate profit margins have physical constraints. Out of each dollar of revenue created, there are costs such as infrastructure, R&D, wages, etc. Currently, the biggest contributors to expanding profit margins has been the suppression of employment, wage growth, and artificially suppressed interest rates, which have significantly lowered borrowing costs. Should either of the issues change in the future, the impact to profit margins will likely be significant.

The chart below shows the ratio overlaid against the S&P 500 index.

I have highlighted peaks in the profits-to-GDP ratio with the green vertical bars. As you can see, peaks, and subsequent reversions, in the ratio have been a leading indicator of more severe corrections in the stock market over time. This should not be surprising as asset prices should eventually reflect the underlying reality of corporate profitability.

It is often suggested that, as mentioned above, low interest rates, accounting rule changes, and debt-funded buybacks have changed the game. While that statement is true, it is worth noting that each of those supports are artificial and finite.

Another way to look at the issue of profits as it relates to the market is shown below. When we measure the cumulative change in the S&P 500 index as compared to the level of profits, we find again that when investors pay more than $1 for a $1 worth of profits, there is an eventual mean reversion.

The correlation is clearer when looking at the market versus the ratio of corporate profits to GDP. (Again, since corporate profits are ultimately a function of economic growth, the correlation is not unexpected.) 

It seems to be a simple formula for investors that as long as the Fed remains active in supporting asset prices, the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn’t matter. 

However, investors are paying more today than at any point in history for each $1 of profit, which history suggests will not end well.

While the media is quick to attribute the current economic strength, or weakness, to the person who occupies the White House, the reality is quite different.

The political risk for President Trump is taking too much credit for an economic cycle which was already well into recovery before he took office. Rather than touting the economic numbers and taking credit for liquidity-driven financial markets, he should be using that strength to begin the process of returning the country to a path of fiscal discipline rather than a “drunken binge” of government spending.

With the economy, and the financial markets, sporting the longest-duration in history, simple logic should suggest time is running out.

This isn’t doom and gloom, it is just a fact.

Politicians, over the last decade, failed to use $33 trillion in liquidity injections, near-zero interest rates, and surging asset prices to refinance the welfare system, balance the budget, and build surpluses for the next downturn.

Instead, they only made the deficits worse, and the U.S. economy will enter the next recession pushing a $2 Trillion deficit, $24 Trillion in debt, and a $6 Trillion pension gap, which will devastate many in their retirement years.

While Donald Trump talked about “Yellen’s big fat ugly bubble” before he took office, he has now pegged the success of his entire Presidency on the stock market.

It will likely be something he eventually regrets.

“Then said Jesus unto him, Put up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword.” – Matthew 26, 26:52

#FPC: What You Have In Common With Kobe Bryant & Chandler Parsons

As an advisor we are taken to task daily on the best way to keep clients informed and give them a holistic view of their financial situation. We must also do so in a way to ensure our clients not only listen but understand and when the situation is right implement action items discussed.

Many times, these items aren’t exciting and they’re what we would call “fortifying your financial house”. Fortunately, for many we can fortify our financial house fairly easily, but it does require dealing with your own mortality.

As you can probably see this article isn’t really about Chandler Parsons or Kobe Bryant, but sometimes seeing someone else’s misfortune and mortality can help us put our own into perspective.

Chandler Parsons, an NBA player and ex Houston Rocket was driving along on a Thursday afternoon at 2 pm after his basketball practice with the Atlanta Hawks and was hit by a drunk driver.

“According to his attorneys, Parsons suffered life-altering and potentially career-ending injuries in the crash. Traumatic brain injury, disc herniation and a torn labrum are among the injuries. The degree of injuries is graver than was assumed last week when the Hawks announced the placement of Parsons in the NBA’s concussion protocol due to whiplash caused by a car wreck.” –From Sports Illustrated Article by Michael McCann

Hit by a drunk driver at 2 pm on a Thursday. That could be any one of us at any time.

Luckily for the 31-year-old Parsons, he has made millions over his career. Hopefully he will make a full recovery and return to the NBA. I have a feeling if he used sound financial behaviors he should be financially secure for the remainder of his life.

What if this was you?

What if you were injured in an accident and no longer had the ability to work? Would you be able to support yourself and your family? Fortunately, for many this risk can be mitigated easily with disability insurance.

We help our clients look at employer benefits to ensure they are fortifying their financial house, not leaving any benefits on the table and alternatively ensure they’re not paying for something they don’t need. Disability insurance is one benefit we find under-utilized.

Kobe Bryant and his daughter Gigi’s death is still fresh on many minds. I’ll spare you the details with the exception of telling you they were 41 and 13.

Many celebrities come and go, many times we hear horror stories over the lack of estate planning. Take a look at Prince’s death. I’m not sure if his estate has finally been cleaned up, but I do know as of 2019 it appeared to still be in limbo.

Who’s made money off this fiasco? Attorneys and Uncle Sam, that’s who.  The list of famous people without basic estate plans goes on and on.  I visit with people daily who have failed to update or do a plan.

Everyone, I repeat everyone-needs a basic estate plan. At minimum a will, power of attorney and medical directives. We also work with many clients who need much more sophisticated estate planning.

In Kobe Bryant’s case, it appears he was a thoughtful man with good business advisors. I pray he had his estate plan all buttoned up.  I can imagine with a reported net worth of $2 Billion his plan had many layers. I would hope there was a 2nd to die policy or some plan in place to help mitigate estate taxes for his wife Vanessa.

So what do you really have in common with Kobe Bryant and Chandler Parsons?

It could happen to you.

Do you think Kobe or Chandler thought this would happen to them? At 41 and 31, I bet not. You’re never too young or old to take the measures to protect yourself.

Some of the things that are most important are often put off for someone else to deal with.

Let me leave you with this- I work with many of you who are so diligent with spending and saving, so good at making money in your craft, so good at taking care of your family-Why? Why leave something as important as protecting your loved ones up to chance, an attorney, a judge, the state, the federal government (In the chance you may have to pay estate tax.)

Why pay the additional costs of not being protected and having a plan?

Why put the burden on your loved ones to know your dying wishes? Why put the burden on your loved ones to fight for your estate? Why put the burden on your loved ones to go back to work?

Purchasing some form of disability insurance either through work or on the open market isn’t some huge undertaking.

Many gamble with the lack of insurance. If you’re going to gamble do so with insurance on your TV or your upcoming trip, don’t gamble with your livelihood and your family’s well-being.

Doing an estate plan and financial plan isn’t the most fun thing to do, but it’s necessary. For some it’s the costs of building a plan or buying the insurance that deters them from doing so, but I’d like for you to talk to someone who didn’t attain disability insurance and needed it. Talk to the family of someone who died without an estate plan.  Then determine the overall cost.

For others it’s not the costs that causes their failure to execute, but the thought of facing the what if’s. The thought of staring down our own mortality and then taking the time to get it done.

It’s funny how time is the one thing we all want more of, yet we can’t control. Take control of what you can, while you can and take the time to fortify your financial house.

As an advisor we see the good, bad and ugly. We’re not estate attorneys but deal with them frequently. More importantly we see the negative financial consequences when events occur, and proper plans aren’t in place.

As always, please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions. We’re always happy to help or point you in the right direction.

Retired Or Retiring Soon? Yes, Worry About A Correction

When I was growing up, my father used to tell me I should “never take advice from anyone who hasn’t succeeded at what they are advising.” 

The most truth of that statement is found in the financial press, which consists mostly of people writing articles and giving advice on topics where they have little experience, and in general, have achieved no success.

The best example came last week in an email quoting:

“You recently suggested that you took profits from your portfolios; however, I read an article saying retirees shouldn’t change their strategies. ‘If you’ve got a thoughtful financial plan and a diversified investment portfolio, the general rule is to leave everything alone.'” 

This seems to be an entirely different approach to what you are suggesting. Also, since corrections can’t be predicted, it seems to make sense.” 

One of the biggest reasons why investors consistently underperform over the long-term is due to flawed investment advice.

Let me explain.

Corrections & Bear Markets Matter

It certainly seems logical, by looking the 120-year chart of the market, that one should just stay invested regardless of what happens. Eventually, as the financial media often suggests, the markets always get back to even. One such chart is the percentage gain/loss chart over the long-term, as shown below.

This is one of the most deceptive charts an advisor can show a client, particularly one that is close to, or worse in, retirement.

The reality is that you DIED long before ever achieving that 8% annualized long-term return you were promised. Secondly, math is a cruel teacher.

Visually, percentage drawdowns seem to be inconsequential relative to the massive percentage gains that preceded them. That is, until you convert percentages into points and reveal an uglier truth.

It is important to remember that a 100% gain on a $1000 investment, followed by a 50% loss, does not leave you with $1500. A 50% loss wipes out the previous 100% gain, leaving you with a 0% net return.

For retirees, this is a critically important point.

In 2000, the average “baby boomer” was around 45-years of age. The “dot.com” crash was painful, but with 20-years to go before retirement, there was time to recover. In 2010, following the financial crisis, the time to retirement for the oldest boomers was depleted, and the average boomer only had 10-years to recover. During both of these previous periods, portfolios were still in accumulation mode. However, today, only the youngest tranche of “boomers,” have the luxury of “time” to work through the next major market reversion. (This also explains why the share of workers over the age of 65 is at historical highs.) 

With the majority of “boomers” now faced with the implications of a transition into the distribution phase of the investment cycle, such has important ramifications during market declines. The following example shows a $1 million portfolio with, and without, an annualized 4% withdrawal rate. (We are going into much deeper analysis on this in a moment.)

While a 10% decline in the market will reduce a portfolio from $1 million to $900,000, when combined with an assumed monthly withdrawal rate, the portfolio value is reduced by almost 14%. This is the result of taking distributions during a period of declining market values. Importantly, while it ONLY requires a non-withdrawal portfolio an 11.1% return to break even, it requires nearly a 20% return for a portfolio in the distribution phase to attain the same level.

Impairments to capital are the biggest challenges facing pre- and post-retirees currently. 

This is an important distinction. Most articles written about retirees, or those ready to retire, is an unrealized assumption of an indefinite timeline.

While the market may not be different than it has been in the past. YOU ARE!

Starting Valuations Matter

As I have discussed previously, without understanding the importance of starting valuations on your investment returns, you can’t understand the impact the market will have on psychology, and investor behavior.

Over any 30-year period, beginning valuation levels have a tremendous impact on future returns.

As valuations rise, future rates of annualized returns fall. This should not be a surprise as simple logic states that if you overpay for an asset today, the future returns must, and will, be lower.

This is far less than the 8-10% rates of return currently promised by the Wall Street community. It is also why starting valuations are critical for individuals to understand when planning for both the accumulation and distribution, phases of the investment life-cycle.

Let’s elaborate on our example above.

We know that markets go up and down over time, therefore when advisors use “average” or “annualized” rates of return, results often deviate far from reality. However, we do know from historical analysis that valuations drive forward returns, so using historical data, we calculated the 4-periods where starting valuations were either above 20x earnings, or below 10x earnings. We then ran a $1000 investment going forward for 30-years on a total-return, inflation-adjusted, basis. 

The results were not surprising.

At 10x earnings, the worst performing period started in 1918 and only saw $1000 grow to a bit more than $6000. The best performing period was actually not the screaming bull market that started in 1980 because the last 10-years of that particular cycle caught the “dot.com” crash. It was the post-WWII bull market that ran from 1942 through 1972 that was the winner. Of course, the crash of 1974, just two years later, extracted a good bit of those returns.

Conversely, at 20x earnings, the best performing period started in 1900, which caught the rise of the market to its peak in 1929. Unfortunately, the next 4-years wiped out roughly 85% of those gains. However, outside of that one period, all of the other periods fared worse than investing at lower valuations. (Note: 1993 is still currently running as its 30-year period will end in 2023.)

The point to be made here is simple and was precisely summed up by Warren Buffett:

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” 

To create our variable return assumption model, we averaged each of the 4-periods above into a single total return, inflation-adjusted, index. We could then see the impact of $1000 invested in the markets at both valuations BELOW 10x trailing earnings, and ABOVE 20x. Investing at 10x earnings yields substantially better results.

Starting Valuations Are Critical To Withdrawal Rates

With a more realistic return model, the impact of investing during periods of high valuations becomes more evident, particularly during the withdrawal phase of retirement.

Let’s start with our $1 million retirement portfolio. The chart below shows various “spend down” assumptions of a $1 million retirement portfolio adjusted for an 8% annualized return, the impact of inflation at 3%, and the effect of taxation on withdrawals.

By adjusting the annualized rate of return for the impact of inflation and taxes, the life expectancy of a portfolio grows considerably shorter. Unfortunately, this is what “really happens” to investors over time, but is never discussed in mainstream analysis.

To understand “real outcomes,” we must adjust for variable rates of returns. There is a significant difference between 8% annualized rates of return and 8% real rates of return. 

When we adjust the spend down structure for elevated starting valuation levels, and include inflation and taxes, a far different, and less favorable, outcome emerges. Retirees will run out of money not in year 30, but in year 18.

With this understanding, let’s revisit what happens to “buy and hold” investors over time. The chart below shows $3000 invested annually into the S&P 500 inflation-adjusted, total return index at 10% compounded annually, and both 10x and 20x valuation starting levels. I have also shown $3000 saved annually and “stuffed in a mattress.”

The red line is 10% compounded annually. While you don’t get compounded returns, it is there for comparative purposes to the real returns received over the 30-year investment horizon starting at 10x and 20x valuation levels. The shortfall between the promised 10% annual rates of return and actual returns are shown in the two shaded areas. In other words, if you are banking on some advisor’s promise of 10% annual returns for retirement, you aren’t going to make it.

Questions Retirees Need To Ask About Plans

What this analysis reveals is that “retirees” SHOULD be worried about bear markets. 

Taking the correct view of your portfolio, and the risks being undertaken is critical when entering the retirement and distribution phase of the portfolio life cycle.

Most importantly, when building and/or reviewing your financial plan, these are the questions you must ask and have concrete answers for:

  • What are the expectations for future returns going forward given current valuation levels? 
  • Should the withdrawal rates be downwardly adjusted to account for potentially lower future returns? 
  • Given a decade long bull market, have adjustments been made for potentially front-loaded negative returns? 
  • Has the impact of taxation been carefully considered in the planned withdrawal rate?
  • Have future inflation expectations been carefully considered?
  • Have drawdowns from portfolios during declining market environments, which accelerates principal bleed, been considered?
  • Have plans been made to harbor capital during up years to allow for reduced portfolio withdrawals during adverse market conditions?
  • Has the yield chase over the last decade, and low interest rate environment, which has created an extremely risky environment for retirement income planning, been carefully considered?
  • What steps should be considered to reduce potential credit and duration risk in bond portfolios?
  • Have expectations for compounded annual rates of returns been dismissed in lieu of a plan for variable rates of future returns?

 If the answer is “no” to the majority of these questions. then feel free to contact one of the CFP’s in our office who take all of these issues into account. 

Yes, not only should you worry about bear markets, you should worry about them a lot.

#FPC: New Advisors: Stop Doing These Two Things.

The higher stocks ride a glide path of zero volatility, the greater the risks for investors and their financial partners to fall victim to overconfidence. After all, we are human;  when it comes to money and emotions our brains are no smarter than a lizard’s. 

As markets continue to be  hyper-fueled by unconventional monetary and fiscal policy in the form of tax cuts, it’s normal to suffer from chronic FOMO or Fear Of Missing Out. It feels like this charging bull is invincible.  You don’t hear much in mainstream financial media about corrections, bear markets, or recession, either. It’s at these times when things are going smoothly that I’m most suspicious. It doesn’t mean I’m going to take it out on a portfolio. Nor does it mean I’m bearish.  It does mean I’m going to aggressively seek out information that conflicts with the latest group think. In other words, at a time where there is apparently ‘no risk,’ and it’s deemed a Goldilocks period, I’m prepared to be eaten by a bear – emotionally, that is.

In addition, I’m greatly concerned that employers at big-box financial organizations  will fail to provide objective, historical information about market cycles especially as the decade-long bull market continues to validate the narrative that stocks ‘always go higher in the long run.’

I’m  worried that new professionals who never experienced a rough market or are too young to recall, cannot comprehend the fiscal damage a bear may inflict on retail households, especially those beginning their investment journey or close to retirement.  I’m convinced newly-minted brokers are not receiving the real story from the firms which employ them. Financial social media, especially Twitter (or FinTwit as the cool kids deem it),  for the most part is a dangerous information conduit as pros idolize financial celebrities who dissect time frames and use statistics that ignite confirmation bias.

I know that feeling. I fell hard for the hype on the brokerage side of the fence until 2006 when I took a deep dive into the catalysts of the Great Depression as purely by luck,  I began to notice how retail investors were progressively pulling money from their brokerage accounts and investing in real estate based on promises of big returns.  I knew that real estate busts, especially values of primary residences (thanks to the work of Robert Shiller),  had potential to create panic and wholesale societal and structural economic distress.

I read everything I could get my hands on including vintage volumes of Magazines Of Wall Street I purchased from the years 1925-1940; I studied Ben Bernanke’s, Christina D. Romer’s work.  The game changer for me was the book titled, “Only Yesterday – An Informal History of the 1920s,” by Frederick Lewis Allen.  A used copy may be purchased for less than 13 bucks on Amazon; the lessons within the pages remain invaluable.

Frederick Allen served on the editorial staff of Atlantic Monthly and editor-in-chief of Harper’s Magazine from 1941 until his death in 1954. What’s fascinating about this book besides the compelling, raw writing style, is Mr. Allen’s ability to showcase how the boom-to-bust affected everyday lives from the kitchen table, to music, to culture. The reader gains a feel of breaking bread with a family on any morning in 1929 and how the Great Depression overwhelmed people’s lives and the world around them. There is also a sordid accounting of what happened to real estate prices along with stock prices. If you seek to remain rational through periods of market euphoria, this book can assist.

As a professional responsible for growing and protecting a family’s wealth, it’s your job; no, it’s your highest aspiration, to avoid doing the following things:

1. Do not underestimate the effects of bear markets on the households you serve. 

Almost 80% of rolling decades since 1900 have
delivered returns 20% above or below the
historical average. For the U.S. stock market, this
means that there is an 80% chance that total
nominal return for the next decade will be either
above 12% or below 8%. Ed Easterling, Crestmont Research, April 2019.

Bear markets in most charts appear as a minor speed bump on an otherwise smooth destination to larger portfolios. 

Understand, to most investors it’s carnage. Average bear market losses can be devastating. Novices who do not comprehend the risks of stock investing, only rewards, have the potential to be blindsided, become distrustful and avoid stocks for a lifetime; pre-retirees or those who seek to begin a distribution plan within 3-5 years depend on their financial professionals to help them minimize losses significant enough to dramatically derail their plans. 

Industry pundits and strategists tout that bear markets are rare. Those who fall for such a dangerous fallacy will eventually lose client trust and ostensibly, accounts. If you dare to believe market cycles are ‘no big deal,’ or every cycle is a bull – Prepare to suffer the consequences.

Courtesy of www.dshort.com:

Based on history,  secular bears appear roughly 40% of the time, not 20%  which seems to be the popular, erroneous statistic touted by financial media. Most of the FinTwit universe tends to ignore the 120+ characters it takes to admit that bear markets actually do happen! (No, really, they do!). 

On a percentage basis, bears indeed appear to be no big deal.

However, take a look on a point basis. This is the chart that will mean the most to clients.

On a point basis, bears almost (and in some cases, completely), wipe out the gains of the previous bull. 

For me, the possible conversation with a client who experiences years of gains wiped out,  is the stuff that wakes me up at 1:30am with night sweats. Consider how much time in the span of a finite human life it takes to create wealth,  how quickly it can be lost, how long it will take to get back to even.  Now, you can repeatedly tout the line how ‘stocks always come back,’ but by then, the client will be done with you and either take over management of the account or find an advisor who appropriately answers the question – “what did you do to protect client wealth during the last bear market?”

I don’t provide this information to dissuade stock investing or suitable stock allocations. I provide it to keep advisors grounded at a time when most financial firms are going to hyper-spike the Kool-Aid to push corporate agendas without giving a d**** about personal growth or tenure of your career. As long as you communicate realistic information to help clients understand the potential bloodletting of bears, you’ll keep everybody’s emotions firmly in check and not mired in the clouds of euphoria.  You will forge trust that binds through any market cycle.

2. Avoid the crowded side of the boat or jump ship, altogether.

Never underestimate the seduction of emotional biases. Never discount the attraction to those who agree with your current point of view.

The objective isn’t to be a curmudgeonly contrarian or known as a wall flower at the bull market party, especially when global central banks keep turbo-spiking the punch bowl. Your overall responsibility is to be a an objective, holistic, eagle-eyed observer of the current period and study history to continue to safeguard the hard-earned savings of investors you serve.

In a paper for Investments & Wealth Institute – “The Psychology of Financial Professionals and Their Clients,” by H. Kent Baker PhD, CFA, CMA, Greg Filbeck, DBA, CFA, FRM, CAIA, CIPM, PRM and business professor/author Victor Riccardi, a behavioral specialist in his own right, outline the behavioral, cognitive and emotional biases financial professionals suffer; even more so than clients.

Overconfident professionals may underestimate the risks and overestimate the upside potential of their investment selections and the stock market, overall.  Even more so, I fear employers, along with mainstream financial media and the popular Fin kids, do nothing but inject steroids into the already bloated confirmation bias many of us are inflicted with, especially advisors who were running around the house in Underoos during the last bear cycle.

It’s worth it to deflate your emotional state, humble yourself a bit. During times of distress or euphoria, it’s crucial to aggressively seek out research that directly contradicts the popular  (or your), opinion. It’s a worthwhile exercise to equally document information that supports and throws a bit of headwind into your sails – Always keep an eye on the lifeboats. Clients will appreciate your objective, perhaps Stoic manner.

In the 70s, I recall a waste disposal space in Brooklyn. How in the spring, beautiful flowers would sprout among the mountains of garbage. Beautiful colors – yellow, purple, green. I never forgot what was underneath. Perspective…

Go ahead and fool yourself how it’s different this time. 

You may believe that bear markets are a part of the past. Or the financial crisis was merely a blip in the heartbeat of time. I mean, it can’t happen again, correct? Many investors and households would disagree.

Overall, American household wealth has not fully recovered from the Great Recession. In 2016, the median wealth of all U.S. households was $97,300, up 16% from 2013 but well below median wealth before the recession began in late 2007 ($139,700 in 2016 dollars). And even though overall racial and ethnic inequality in wealth narrowed from 2013 to 2016, the gap remains large. Pew Research Center.

Become a humble provider of objective information, never waiver from a fiduciary intent, and be assured you’ll retain clients for decades. 

I know that it’s worked for me. 

It will for you, too. 

FPC: Do You Have A “Financial Vulnerability” Cushion?

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Everyone has heard of having emergency funds, but how many have heard of a financial vulnerability cushion (FVC)? Common, old rule of thumb financial rules typically dictate savings rates, but in times like we currently face should we be doing something different?

I know, I know times are great. Markets are hitting all-time highs daily, unemployment is better than anything we have seen in 50 years, tax brackets are low, and the list goes on and on. These are just a few of the more common themes and I’m not here to argue any of them.

I am here to hopefully provide an ounce of clarity.

What happens after some of the best times? What happens when life can’t get you down? What happens after some of the worst times? Markets eb and flow and not just financial markets, but job markets as well.

They don’t say when it rains it pours for nothing.

We want you to be prepared.

I’m not talking about building a bunker, but I am talking about going above and beyond the typical 3-6 months of expenses held in a fully funded emergency fund.  In times like these it’s difficult to think about putting funds anywhere but in the market. After all, the market has been red hot. I visit with people daily who question their need for additional savings or any money in savings accounts while the market’s notching all-time highs weekly. FOMO or “Fear of missing out” is very real.

Have you ever wondered why Wall Street tells everyone that buy and hold is the only strategy, yet they don’t utilize it themselves?

Have you ever wondered how so many people end up in difficult financial positions? Many times, it’s because they choose the present over the future in terms of spending or believe the future will improve and things will only get better. I’ll get that raise or bonus this year, but unfortunately as many know sometimes things are as good as they get.  Don’t get me wrong I’m an eternal optimist, but when it comes to things I literally have no control over I know a little better.

We’d like for you to start thinking a little differently when it comes to where to put your funds and how much you should have saved that are easily accessible and low risk.

Emergency Funds

These funds should be in a savings account and accessible, but not so accessible you can go to the ATM and make a withdrawal. Emergency funds are for real emergencies, your A/C goes out, the car breaks down, your kid breaks their leg, the list goes on. (I’ve actually encountered all within the last 12 months) so don’t say it can’t happen!

We like online banks that are still FDIC insured or a brick and mortar that pays a higher interest rate. Don’t leave these funds in a bank that pays you very little or next to nothing. The banks are using your funds to make money, so should you. Every little bit helps.

A resource to find a credible bank could be www.bankrate.com or www.nerdwallet.com. Just type in High Yield Savings. Recently there have been many more banks popping up in the search que so do your research on each institution or give us a call if you have any questions.

Financial Vulnerability Cushion or (FVC)-

These are funds that you can think of a little differently, what if I lose my job/have a disability/illness AND the A/C goes out and the car breaks down.  Instead of putting funds in your savings account go ahead and structure these a bit different.

It’s ok to ladder CD’s to lock in higher or current rates. If using CD’s, you would ladder these in the event rates rise so a portion is always coming due. Example 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months. This may be difficult to stomach because these rates will be similar to what you will earn in a high yield savings account but will also provide a better rate should rates decrease. Short term bond funds or ETF’s could also be suitable for these funds. Safety and liquidity are key here.  We currently favor short term, high credit quality bonds or Treasury bond ETF’s. Remember, you’re not putting these funds here forever and these should be monitored like any other investment. While these are safer investment’s they are not cash and carry some risk and loss of principal.

While the main purpose of the Financial Vulnerability Cushion is to fortify your financial house, these funds can also be utilized for opportunities as well.

How many times have you thought to yourself if only I had the funds to invest or if you only did something differently? Well, congratulations you can now be one of the few investors with additional cash to buy low. This especially makes sense since Wall Street wants you to ride it out and you can’t time the markets, but they sure can. Wall Street will also tell you that cash is a terrible investment. Ever wonder why? How does Wall Street get paid on cash? Long term cash can be a terrible investment, but as our Director of Financial Planning Richard Rosso says you can fall on one of two swords in regards to having cash:

  1. The inflation sword or
  2. The loss of principal sword.

Our thoughts are this isn’t a forever holding. While I do think this strategy could be used indefinitely for all of the reasons above. This is a strategic investment to be used in late stage cycles. This is your chance to pounce when the market is on sale or that business opportunity falls in your lap. After all true financial freedom is earned not given in markets and often times it is taken away just as quickly.

Bet On Yourself.

Bet on yourself to make the right decision, to be prudent, to be wise. When everyone and I mean everyone is doing one thing does it make sense to be a bit of a contrarian, protect assets and give yourself an opportunity in the future?

This is a great time to review your financial plan and take a look at your assets. Where are you making your contributions? What impact will that make when you make withdrawals? What will give you the most opportunity for success. Most success isn’t given overnight and neither are investment returns.

No one knows what tomorrow brings, but we do know as Roman philosopher Seneca once said “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

Call your advisor, and ask them about your Financial Vulnerability Cushion.

Do you have one?

Rosso’s 2020 Reading List – Part II

“A reader lives a thousand lives before he dies… The man who never reads lives only one.” – George R.R. Martin.

I’m not sure what I would do without books. On weekends, I can be found in antique stores searching out volumes written in many instances, over 100 years ago from authors most of us never knew existed. These treasures don’t cost much. The words are priceless.

I find that absorbing fiction and self-improvement as well as financial or economic titles, fosters an ability to think creatively.  As much as you’ll hear that money is about numbers, it’s equally about emotions and intuition.

After all, what are investments but stories?

The next 5 tomes for 2020 are mostly tied to emotional and physical health. The health + wealth connection is one of the most important equations of our lifetimes.  Although, one of my favored authors on economics, Robert Shiller also appears.

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events – Robert J. Shiller.

Professor Shiller’s latest is off the beaten path when compared to  previous writings. In this book, he explores how stories go viral and have the force to fuel major economic events. It’s a very human analysis for a man usually immersed in math, which many Shiller zealots find disconcerting.  I find it refreshing. As I lament often – Economics is a social science and as humans, we live and breathe the subject every day  The world is one big Petri dish; investors cannot discount emotions or ‘animal spirits’ to shift economic winds. The professor shares plenty of historical references to make his case; he studies how  words spread throughout society. Think about how specific narratives have sparked economic tinderboxes on Main Street – Houses always go up in value,  we’re in a stock market bubble (or not),  robots are stealing jobs. What are stocks but stories spread by biased sell-side analysts and investors, overall? What Shiller doesn’t adequately cover is why certain phrases infiltrate the lingo of the masses while others die in transit.  Regardless, this book is a fascinating read into the economic wildfire of emotions.

Love Yourself Like Your Life Depends On It – Kamal Ravikant.

My friend Kamal revisits, refreshes his work on torturous personal growth. Kamal is a modern-day Stoic; he objectively examines his life as a successful CEO who fell apart emotionally after his company failed. Kamal documents his trials of ‘getting in his own way.’ How many of us do the same? The urge to self-sabotage must be exposed, brought to the light, and cleansed. Kamal examines how living in the past can destroy the present. His methods to emerge from a dark place will provide profound sense of encouragement for those who feel lost. We all play, re-play patterns in our heads. They in turn, trigger feelings.  The loops that roll in our minds, our thoughts, can free or imprison. Once caught in a negative-feedback loop, how do you break it? Kamal shares what he’s done to free and love himself because his life depended on it.  This book never leaves my nightstand.

Super Human: The Bulletproof Plan to Age Backward and Maybe Even Live Forever –  Dave Asprey.

Ok, so Dave’s goal to live to 180 is indeed, lofty. However, as the ultimate human bio-hacker, in book 5 of his “Bulletproof” series, he does provide worthwhile tips on how to gain and maintain health. As a child, he was classified as “premature aging.” His body was its own worst enemy. Dave improved his health dramatically based on aggressive diet, lifestyle, supplementation and specific biohacking methods outlined in the book. There are several unconventional tactics that require further homework. However, Dave is also solid about reminding us about the basics of better sleep and intermittent fasting. Last, readers are provided with specific ideas on the proper supplements and strategies to not only live a longer life, but a robust healthier one. I see his methods as a pathway to lowering healthcare costs. Keep in mind, a couple may incur anywhere from $280,000 to $387,000 in total healthcare expenses throughout retirement. Good habits employed to become aggressively preventative will ostensibly lead to lower expenses and an increasingly active lifestyle.

The Simple Life Guide to Financial Freedom – Gary Collins, MS.

Gary has been a guest on our  700AM KSEV radio show on numerous occasions. He’s a minimalist, ‘ruralist’ and many other ‘ists’ that pertain to financial independence through small yet enriched living. He employs simple math – addition, subtraction, division (unlike the mainstream financial industry which wields obfuscation like a Japanese sword), to make clear the reasons as to why the vast majority of Americans live one paycheck away from disaster, why the health=wealth connection is most important, how primary residence can be your greatest American nightmare, and presents a primer on basic consumer debt. Gary is my brother from another mother; he walks the talk of  financial independence. His philosophy is almost in perfect alignment with RIA’s Financial and Debt Guardrails. Want the financial truth such as what you read in our RIA blog? Here’s the book. My copy is highlighted, dog-eared and resides on a bookshelf in my office.

Blood – Allison Moorer.

In 1986, Allison Moorer awoke to a gunshot. Her father shot and killed her mother then turned the gun on himself.  Blues, folk, country singer/songwriter Allison Moorer and recording artist sister Shelby Lynne,  live in this shadow every day.  This work is Allison’s story of recovery written in a form only a songwriter can pen. The words, her perceptions, are poetic, biting and flow like a  dark song which transforms into a melody of warmth and sunlight. For those who have suffered a family trauma and carry it daily, Allison’s writing style is overwhelmingly healing and loving. I’ve already recommended her tome to friends who bear similar burdens. Candidly,  a topic such as this is a departure from my usual reading material. However,  I’m personally fond of Allison and her award-winning older sister Shelby Lynne, a songwriter and actress in her own right.  The sentiments shared in this book will stick with me. I bet they will with you, too.

I consider the written word a tap dance for the synapses. With each step, new visions are born and new thoughts forged.

Through a tumultuous childhood, books were one of my greatest escapes; a salvation of sanity and calm. During summer break as a boy I’d grab a stack of paperback books, depart our apartment early and head to the interior of a local funeral parlor (a friend’s dad was the director), where I’d sit in the corner nearest the largest plate-glass window I’ve ever seen. The morning sun at maximum light was all I needed. I loved the feel of the luxurious wall-to-wall deep red carpet of that place. Quiet floated on the faint aroma of flowers. The time made my reading that much more rewarding and memorable. Today, that large window is replaced with concrete. However, the memories of my reading time can never be sealed away.

This spring, I’ll provide my next five for your summer reading pleasure.  I read, study, highlight, 40-50 books a year and happily share my top selections.  Currently, I’m re-reading several classics including – Jack London’s White Fang, Shelley’s Frankenstein and Stoker’s Dracula.

If you read any of these selections, please let me know what you learned!

FPC: All The Numbers You Need To Know For 2020

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  • February 8th from 9-11am.


Hopefully you’ve had some time to reflect and grade yourself on your financial progress for 2019 and you’re ready to take 2020 by the horns. The new year brings new numbers to be aware of to ensure you’re taking advantage of all you can. There are many contribution limits, income limits and a vast array of numbers used in financial planning, but here are a few more common ones to make sure you’re staying on track.

Retirement Plans:

For employees:

401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans and the federal governments Thrift Savings Plan employee contributions have increased from $19,000 to $19,500. The maximum amount employees + employers can contribute has also gone up to $57,000.

For those of you over 50 the catch up provision has increased from $6,000 to $6,500.

Please, please don’t overlook the Roth option if you have it within your plan.

For Small Business Owners:

SIMPLE IRA plan contribution limits have been increased from $13,000 to $13,500. There is also a catch up provision of $3,000 for individuals over 50.

SEP IRA contribution limits have also increased from $56,000 to $57,000 or 25% of income whichever is lower.

IRA’s

While the maximum contribution limits for IRA’s of $6,000 and a catch up provision of $1,000 for those over 50 remained unchanged. The income limits for deductibility in the case of the Traditional IRA and the ability to contribute to a Roth IRA did change a bit.

Traditional IRA

You can always make a contribution to a Traditional IRA with no income limitations, but your contribution may not be deductible for income tax purposes. For those of you who would like to make a tax deductible contribution which I assume is most of you, the numbers have changed slightly. There is such a thing as a “phase out limit”. This applies if you make over a certain amount of income you can still contribute and deduct, but the amount will be reduced that you can deduct.

Then there are those who can’t make tax deductible contributions at all.

If you and your spouse are not covered by an employer sponsored plan then regardless of income you can make a deductible contribution.

If you are covered by an employer sponsored plan here is what you need to know about those phase out limits. If you’re single or Head of Household the income limit starts at $65,000 and ends at $75,000. Meaning that if you make between $65,000 and $75,000 your deductible contribution will be reduced, but if you make over $75,000 you can’t deduct your contribution for income tax purposes. If you file Married Filing Jointly that number is $104,000 to $124,000.

Now if only one of you is covered by an employer sponsored plan the income limit for tax deductible contributions goes up to $196,000-206,000.

Roth IRA

Roth IRA’s are a little trickier than their older brethren the Traditional IRA. You can either contribute or you can’t. In the case of the Roth the benefit isn’t a tax deduction, but paying taxes now, funding the Roth with after tax funds and enjoying tax free growth and distributions should you meet a couple of small stipulations.  Roth contributions can be withdrawn at any time without a 10% penalty, but the earnings could be subject to taxes and the 10% early withdrawal penalty if you don’t meet the following:

  • Withdrawals must be taken after 59 ½
  • Withdrawals must be taken after a five year holding period

There are also a few qualifying events that may preclude you from having to pay taxes and/or 10% penalty, but we’ll save those for another post.

Here are the numbers you need to know to determine if you can or can’t contribute to a Roth IRA.

If you’re single or Head of Household and make under $124,000 you can make a full Roth contribution of $6,000 if you’re over 50 you can also make the additional $1,000 catch up contribution. If you make over $124,000, but less than $139,000 then you will be able to make a partial contribution. Over $139,000 you’re out of luck on a Roth IRA.

Married Filing Jointly income numbers for eligibility to contribute to a Roth increase a bit as well increasing from $193,000-$203,000 to $196,000- $206,000.

Saving for Health Care

There are two main types of accounts designed to help pay for medical expenses. If you can utilize them both that’s great, most don’t have that choice, but if you have to choose I really like the Health Savings Account.

Health Savings Accounts (HSA)

If you have access to a Health Savings Account max it out and if you can pay medical expenses out of pocket don’t use these funds.

This is the only account in the world which will give you a triple tax benefit-funds go in pre-tax, grow tax free and come out tax free if used for qualified medical expenses. Fidelity did a study last year that estimated the average 65 year old couple will spend $280,000 in health care expenses. You must be in a high deductible health insurance plan to utilize a HSA, but we are seeing more and more employers offering these types of plans.

This year if you are single you can contribute $3,550 and families can contribute $7,100 to an HSA. There is also an additional catch up provision of $1,000 for those 55 and older.

Flexible Spending Accounts (FSA)

FSA’s which are typically use it or lose it now have an annual contribution limit of $2,750 up from $2,700 in 2019.

Social Security and Medicare

We spend a lot of time discussing Social Security and Medicare and for good reason. According to our workshop attendance in 2019 there is a thirst for knowledge in these areas. I understand, they both can be confusing and this is an area that contains “stealth taxes.”

Social Security

Social Security had a couple of increases in 2020, for instance the estimated maximum monthly benefit if turning full retirement age (66) in 2020 is now $3,011.

OASDI which is an acronym for Old-Age, Survivors, Disability Insurance (Social Security Trust) taxes income up to $137,700 this is an increase from $132,900 in 2019. The current tax is 6.20% on earnings up to the applicable taxable maximum amount of $137,000. The Medicare portion is 1.45% on all earnings.

The retirement earnings test exempt amounts have also increased. In layman’s terms, if you take social security prior to full retirement age you will have $1 in benefits withheld for every $2 over $18,240/yr.

The year an individual reaches full retirement age that number increases to $48,600/yr, but only applies to earning for months prior to attaining full retirement age. In this instance $1 in benefits will be withheld for every $3 in earning above the limit.

Medicare

Medicare Part B premiums have also increased from $135.50 to $144.60. The first threshold for premium increases or surcharges has also increased for single filers to $87,000 to $109,000 and $174,000 up to $218,000 for joint filers. If you’re above those first numbers your monthly premium goes up to $202. 40 and it only goes up incrementally from there.

These are some of the more common numbers we watch for to either try to keep more money in your pocket or make sure you’re maximizing all funding sources. Now is a great time to check to ensure you’ve updated any systematic contributions to reflect the new numbers. After all, I know you’re paying yourselves first.

Financial Planning Corner: A Change To RMD’s For Post-49’ers

Happy New Year from RIA Advisors Planning Corner! As we wind down the holiday season our focus begins to shift back toward wealth and health.

This financial industry and retirees have been trying to figure out what the passage of the SECURE ACT means to them. We’ve spent some time on this over the last couple of weeks, but we keep getting one really important question from readers over the holidays.

When do I have to take my Required Minimum Distribution aka RMD from my tax deferred retirement account?

We’ll break this down for you by date of birth.

You were born before 1949…

Business as usual if you are already taking RMD’s. The SECURE ACT does not impact you. Continue to take your RMD’s as scheduled.

If you were born between January 1st and June 30, 1949…

Again, business as usual. Since you turned 70 ½ in 2019 hopefully you have already taken your RMD. However, if you didn’t make your distribution in 2019 you’re in luck. You can still take your 2019 distribution as long as you do so prior to April 1, 2020. Remember you will still be on the hook for your 2020 RMD as well as last year’s 2019.

You were born between July 1st and December 31st, 1949…

Winner, winner chicken dinner! The SECURE ACT does affect you. Your first RMD is now 72 instead of 70 ½.

You were born after 1949…

Ding, ding, ding you won the SECURE ACT. Your first RMD doesn’t happen until you’re 72.

RMD’s aren’t to be taken lightly. If you neglect to make your distributions Uncle Sam will penalize you to the tune of 50% of the amount not withdrawn.

I’m sure in the coming weeks we’ll continue to discuss the implications of the SECURE ACT as we receive more questions.  The bill certainly accelerates the need for funds outside of Traditional IRA’s and retirement accounts since the Stretch IRA is all but dead. For more information on the SECURE ACT go to www.realinvestmentadvice.com and type in SECURE ACT in the search bar for previously written articles.

5-Things Your Broker Will Ignore – Part 1

Investors mistakenly believe their financial partners are students of holistic financial planning. Outside of sell-side biased market information pumped out daily by an employer’s research department, there are several areas of study that many brokers would prefer to avoid.

Worse are the practitioners who confidently communicate erroneous Medicare and Social Security advice which results in consumers leaving thousands of lifetime income dollars on the table. Then, there are the brokers who utilize comprehensive financial planning as a tool to sell products with little focus on sequence of returns risk or lower future asset class returns that may drain a retiree’s investment nest egg faster than anticipated.

There are 5 areas of concern investors must consider (even though brokers will discount their importance). I decided to break the actions into 5 separate blog posts so readers are not overwhelmed.

1). Inflation must be adjusted and matched to specific goals.

Inflation is personal to and differs for every household.

My household’s inflation rate will differ from yours.

Thanks to an inflation project undertaken by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, there’s now a method to calculate a personal inflation rate. A smart idea is to compare the results of their analysis to the inflation factor your financial professional employs in retirement and financial planning. Instruct your adviser to complete an additional planning scenario which incorporates your personalized consumer price index and see how it affects your end results or outcomes.

The bank has undertaken a massive project to break down and study the elements of inflation along with the creation of a myCPI tool which captures the uniqueness of goods that individuals purchase.

Researchers estimate average expenditures using a calculation which incorporates various cross-demographic information including sex, age, income, education and housing status. The result is 144 different market baskets that may reflect a closer approximation to household’s personal cost of living vs. the average consumer. It’s easy to use and sign up for updates.

My personal CPI peaked in July 2008 at an annualized rate of 5.2%. Currently, it’s closer to 1.7%. For living expense planning purposes, I use the average over the last decade which comes in at 2.1%.

The tool can help users become less emotional and gain rational perspective about inflation. Inflation tends to be a touchy subject as prices for everything must always go higher (which isn’t the case). I’ve witnessed how as a collective, we experience brain drain when we rationalize how inflation impacts our financial well-being. It’s a challenge to think in real (adjusted for inflation) vs. nominal terms.

I hear investors lament about the “good old days,” often where rates on certificates of deposit paid handsomely. For example, in 1989, the year I started in financial services, a one-year CD yield averaged 7.95%. Inflation at the time was 5.39%. After taxes, investors barely earned anything, but boy, those good old days were really somethin’ weren’t they?

We’re all inflation experts because we live with it daily. It’s an insidious financial shadow. It follows us everywhere. We just lose perspective at times as the shadow ebbs and flows, shrinks and expands depending on our spending behavior. Interestingly, as humans, we tend to anchor to times when inflation hit us the hardest.

I’m not saying inflation isn’t important. The dilemma is that a majority of brokers will blindly adhere to default inflation rates provided in their respective financial planning software. If inaccurate inflation rates are employed, or not personalized for a household’s goals, they have the potential to under or overestimate spending needs, especially throughout retirement.

As an investor, I want you to be prepared to consider inflation in a logical manner (perhaps teach your financial partner a thing or two).

Here are 3 concepts to remember.

2). Specific financial goals may require varied rates of inflation.

A financial plan is a voluminous snapshot of wealth building in process. A plan (hopefully, along with a knowledgeable financial partner), helps forecast how specific actions can lead to success (or failure) to meet future goals. However, the effectiveness of a plan is only as good as the inputs employed to create it.

The adage of “garbage in, garbage out,” not only goes for the accuracy of personal financial information shared to prepare the plan, it also applies to the asset-class returns and inflation estimates employed. Financial planning software is user-ready with built-in assumptions about returns and inflation estimates; it’s the responsibility of your advisor or brokerage firm to review defaults and decide if or when they require change. For example, one of several programs we utilize at RIA defaults to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for its base inflation rate. A series of default projected asset class returns are also provided.

As a group, we annually review these inputs and update if warranted. Early in 2018, we decided to reduce forecasted returns on every asset class due to stretched fundamentals, excluding international and emerging markets. Although our investment committee finds international stocks attractive from a valuation perspective, we maintain zero broad exposure to them. I’m getting ahead of myself as I expand on valuations in the second blog post of the series.

As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index is the average change over time in prices paid for a market basket of consumer goods and services. There are two target populations or groups the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates for its main series: All Urban Consumers (the “CPI-U” population), and Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (the “CPI-W” population).

From the BLS:

The CPI-U population covers about 88 percent of the U.S. population or households in all areas of the United States except people living in rural nonmetropolitan areas, in farm households, on military installations, in religious communities, and in institutions such as prisons and mental hospitals.

The CPI-W is a subset of CPI-U and covers the CPI-U population households for whom 50 percent or more of household income comes from wages and clerical workers’ earnings. The CPI-W’s share of the total U.S. population has diminished over the years; the CPI-W population is now about 28 percent of the total U.S. population. The CPI-W population excludes households of professional and salaried workers, part-time workers, the self-employed, and the unemployed, along with households with no one in the labor force, such as those of retirees.

Listen, it’s the best we have when it comes to broad measures of inflation. Thus, the historical inflation rate used in most financial planning programs are not incorrect per say, it’s just designed to capture spending of the mass population, not your household where spending may differ. It’s acceptable to be utilized in plans but when it comes to specific future spending goals especially in retirement, perhaps we can do better.

3). Gain a grip on your household’s PIR or Personal Inflation Rates.

So, how do you create PIR or Personal Inflation Rates? Initially, seek to partner with a fiduciary or Certified Financial Planner® to create and prioritize financial goals segmented into needs and wants. Needs are the financial milestones which are most important and may include college funding requirements, retirement income needs and healthcare and long-term care insurance costs. Wants and wishes as secondary, tertiary desires such as overseas trips or the convertible foreign sportscar you always wanted should also be in a plan!

For each goal, it should be determined whether current CPI (or CPI-U) over the last 12 months should be employed or a rate which differs higher or lower than CPI. I would also spend a few minutes and discover your household’s rate of inflation through the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s myCPI tool. Complete the brief questionnaire and collect data for 12 months (you’ll receive regular e-mail updates from the Reserve Bank), before consideration as replacement for the broad-based CPI in your plan. I recommend waiting a year as I’ve witnessed the rate change dramatically, so it’s best to gain an understanding of the trend in your personal rate.

Specific goals such as college funding, long-term care coverage, and additional healthcare-related expenditures above what Medicare-related insurance will cover, consistently trend at twice or greater the broad-based CPI. Planning software must be adjusted accordingly.

For example, at RIA we monitor trends in healthcare and long-term care inflation through the Kaiser Family Foundation research at www.kff.org, www.medicarerights.org, and www.genworth.com, respectively. We monitor overall trends including inflation that is “sticky,” or consistently rising, through the Federal Reserve Bank Of Atlanta’s ongoing inflation project at www.frbatlanta.org.

4). Keep an open mind: Inflation can change throughout retirement.

I love westerns, especially “The Big Valley.” Rich story lines and robust acting by Barbara Stanwyck as the matriarch of the Barkleys, along with Lee Majors and Richard Long as members of a California ranching family, have captivated me for years.

Your spending in retirement is mostly a big valley. I’ll explain:

Several of the Certified Financial Planners at RIA partner with clients who have been in retirement-income distribution mode for over a decade.  In other words, these clients are re-creating paychecks through systematic portfolio withdrawals and Social Security/pension retirement benefits. Although we formally plan for an annual cost-of-living increase in withdrawals, rarely if at all does this group contact us every year to increase their distributions!

There’s a time series in retirement where active-year activities, big adventures conclude, and retirees enter the big valley of level consumption. I call it the “been there done that,” stage where a retiree has moved on; the overseas trips have been fulfilled and enrichment thrives a bit closer to home.

Retirees move from grandiose bucket list spending to a long period or valley of even-toned, creative, mindful endeavors. It’s a sweet spot, an extended time of good health; so, healthcare is not so much an inflationary or heavy spending concern. The big valley stage is just a deeper, relaxed groove of a retirement lifetime.

A thorough analysis I refer to often because it reflects the reality I witness through clients, was conducted by David Blanchett, CFA, CFP® and Head of Retirement Research for  Morningstar. The research paper, “Estimating the True Cost of Retirement,” is 25 pages and should be mandatory reading for pre-retirees and those already in retirement (along with financial professionals).

David concludes:

“While research on retirement spending commonly assumes consumption increases annually by inflation (implying a real change of 0%), we do not witness this relationship within our dataset. We note that there appears to be a “retirement spending smile” whereby the expenditures actually decrease in real terms for retirees throughout retirement and then increase toward the end. Overall, however, the real change in annual spending through retirement is clearly negative.”

David eloquently defines spending as the “retirement spending smile.” As a fan of westerns, I envision the period as a valley bracketed by the spending peaks of great adventures on one side, healthcare expenditures on the other. Hey, I live in Texas. This analogy works better for me.

In comprehensive financial planning, it’s prudent to be conservative and incorporate an inflation rate to annual spending needs.

Medical costs affect retirees differently. Unfortunately, it’s tough as we age to avoid healthcare costs and the onerous inflation attached to them. Thankfully, proper Medicare planning is a measurable financial plan expense as a majority of a retiree’s healthcare costs will be covered by Medicare along with Medigap or supplemental coverage.

Unfortunately, many retirees are ill-prepared for long-term care expenditures which are erroneously believed to be covered by Medicare. Generally, long-term care is assistance with activities of daily living like eating and bathing. At RIA, we use an annual inflation factor of 4.5% for additional medical expenses (depending on current health of the client), and the cost of long-term care.

David suggests an alternative inflation proxy for older workers. The Experimental Consumer Price Index for Americans 62 Years of Age and Older or the CPI-E, reflects contrast of category weightings when compared to CPI-U or CPI-W, the CPI for urban consumers and urban wage earners, respectively.

Unfortunately, don’t expect CPI-E to gain traction as it would result in robust COLA or cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security benefits. Intuitively, it makes sense that greater relative importance is placed on medical care for seniors. However, based on the burden of social programs on the federal budget, don’t expect CPI-E to be employed anytime in the foreseeable future.

Table 2. Comparative analysis of CPI relative importance data of selected expenditure groups, December 1995.

Expenditure Group                  CPI-U   CPI-W   CPI-E

All items                                        100.00  100.00  100.00

  Food and beverages                    17.33   19.26   15.00 

    Food at home                                9.88   11.21     9.66 

    Food away from home                5.89    6.37      4.23

    Alcoholic beverages                     1.57    1.68      1.10

  Housing                                          41.35   38.89   46.89 

    Shelter                                          28.29   25.98   33.88

  Apparel and upkeep                       5.52    5.53    3.93 

  Transportation                             16.95   19.02   13.82 

  Medical care                                     7.36    6.26   12.14

    Medical care commodities           1.28    1.06    2.57

    Medical care services                    6.08    5.21    9.57

        Health Insurance                           .36     .25    1.09

  Entertainment                                   4.37    4.03    3.35 

  Other goods and services                7.12    7.01    4.87

  College tuition                                   1.61    1.19    0.59

Inflation is indeed the omnipotent boogeyman in the room and must be addressed.

Due to globalization, technological advancement, increased competition and decreased domestic energy dependence, inflation overall has progressively trended lower for decades (thankfully).

Chart courtesy of www.inflationdata.com.

A responsibility of your advisor (among many), is to study current macro/micro trends in inflation and update your plan accordingly to determine how these trends may impair or complement future financial aspirations.

Next up in the blog series:

2). The “Valuations Matter,” pre-retirement portfolio adjustment.

5-Things Savvy Investors Should Know About Social Security

The recent Nationwide Retirement Institute® Consumer Social Security PR Study conducted by Harris Poll queried 1,315 U.S. adults aged 50 and over who collect or plan to collect Social Security benefits. Recent retirees, future retirees and those who retired in 10+ years were polled. The results of this study provide a formidable glimpse into perceptions of Social Security and how they change over time.

Here are 5 highlights for future retirees who seek to maximize benefits and understand how Social Security fits into a holistic financial plan that benefits from guaranteed lifetime income.

Current & future retirees see Social Security as their primary source of retirement income.

Social Security as a primary source of retirement income towers over retirement accounts like 401ks and IRAs for current, future retirees and those who retired over a decade ago. Social Security has become the primary pension for the masses. It’s not an incidental benefit, or ‘icing on the cake,’ to a secure retirement journey. It is now the centerpiece, although it wasn’t designed to be.

Therefore, it’s a future recipient’s responsibility not to succumb to fear mongering (SS IS GOING BROKE!) and plan objectively to get the most out of the program as it exists today. Don’t shortchange lifetime family benefits by at least 25% and file for Social Security retirement benefits at age 62 unless the money is absolutely required to survive. Also, consider a non-working spouse left behind. Survivor benefits are greater if a primary wage earner waits until age 70 to claim retirement benefits.

A third of recent and 10+ retirees say health problems are interfering with retirement.

Poor health can quickly drain the happiness out of retirement. Thankfully, a majority of recent and 10+ retirees enjoy good health. The key is to consider health as an investment you cannot afford to ignore. Medicare included, Fidelity estimates that a couple will spend a total of $280,000 throughout retirement for healthcare costs.

According to Dr. Steven M. Gundry, author of the revolutionary book on how to age ‘youthfully,’ The Longevity Paradox, only 2% of a longevity footprint is DNA; success lies mostly in lifestyle habits. The reduction of animal proteins, an increase in good fats (like olive oil), and moderate exercise can all add healthy years to retirement. Amazingly, those who take on healthy habits later in life (50+), see an exponential increase in longevity when compared to those who started sooner! If you want to get the most out of Social Security and take advantage of greater lifetime benefits at age 70, well, you’re going to need to live until age 85.

Health problems occurred much sooner than expected for many retirees.

Health problems appear to come out of the blue. In reality, they are decades in the making. Eight in ten 10+ retirees or 81%, say health issues occurred sooner than expected; 61% said they occurred more than 5 years sooner than were expected.

The quality of life can be greatly enhanced if you can objectively examine and alter daily habits. Over 3 years ago, I began to re-train my brain (let’s call it mental trickery), to add or subtract $100 from my retirement accounts whenever I did something positive or negative that affected my health. Eat a burger, subtract $100; complete a workout, add $100. You get the picture. Now, I live in consistent debit and credit mode. It’s on autopilot in my head. At the end of a week, I want to be net positive $500. I brought the negative impact of poor health in the future into my present to monetize the pain! If you adhere to a budget, refrain from eliminating the expense of a fitness membership and get to the gym on a regular basis. Make a week’s worth of healthy lunches at home and ‘brown bag’ it. Your finances will be healthier too as opposed to spending $7-$10 bucks a day eating lunch out or grabbing a bite on the go.

Under a quarter of future retirees admit to not knowing which expenses might be withheld from Social Security.

Close to half of future retirees admit they don’t know what can be withheld from Social Security payments or believe nothing is withheld. Generally, Medicare Part B and D premiums are withheld from Social Security. Unfortunately, there will be years (I fear more often), when Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLA) will be 100% reduced to compensate for increases in Part B base premiums. For example, in 2020, COLA is expected to be 1.7%. Medicare Part B monthly base premiums are expected to increase to $144.30 from $135.50 – a 6.5% increase – which will more than offset the COLA for Social Security.

Those who pay monthly Medicare premiums out-of-pocket due to waiting until age 70 to collect larger Social Security benefits, will be subject to 100% of the increase in the Medicare premium amount in 2020. Recipients who already have their Part B premiums deducted from Social Security cannot pay more than the COLA adjustment per the Hold Harmless Provision. Eventually, those who are subject to Hold Harmless do get hit with full premium increases as future cost of living adjustments allow.

A comprehensive retirement plan should not only cover Medicare expenditures along with an appropriate rate of annual inflation (we use 4.5%), but also include out of pocket healthcare costs which take into account the possible loss of inflation adjustments for Social Security due to increases in Part B and D premium costs.

Older adults underestimate how long the average 65-year-old will live.

Older adults believe women will live to 83.7. In actuality, they will live to 89 years old. On average, men will live to be 87. Older adults think men will live to be 81.6. Longer life expectancies warrant serious consideration to postponing Social Security until age 70, especially in the face of dwindling private pensions. In other words, guaranteed income is important to the survivability of an investment portfolio comprised of variable assets like stocks and bonds. During periods of future low investment returns which already may have started, the maximization of guaranteed income options can help retirees to adjust or reduce portfolio withdrawal rates.

If a future Social Security recipient waits until age 70, monthly payments can be 32 percent higher than the benefits earned at full retirement age. Currently, full retirement age is 66 and 2 months for those born in 1955; for people born in 1960 or later, FRA is 67.

It’s important to partner with a financial professional who understands the devastating impact of impetuous Social Security claiming decisions. In numerous cases, RIA Certified Financial Planners® have prevented individuals from losing thousands of dollars in lifetime and survivor income benefits due to misinformation from brokers, friends with strong opinions and plain old misconceptions.

If you need a customized Social Security maximization report or a second opinion on the best claiming options for your situation, reach out to us.

We’re happy to assist.

A Traders’ Secret For Buying Munis

Believe it or not, any domestic bond trader under the age of 55 has never traded in a bond bear market. Unlike the stock market, which tends to cycle between bull and bear markets every five to ten years, bond markets can go decades trending in one direction. These long periods of predictable rate movements may seem easy to trade, especially in hindsight, but when the trend changes, muscle memory can trump logic leaving many traders and investors offside.

If you believe higher yields are upon us in the near future, there are many ways to protect your bond portfolio. In this article, we present one idea applicable to municipal bonds. The added benefit of this idea is it does not detract from performance if rates remain stubbornly low or fall even lower.  Who says there is no such thing as a free lunch?

Munis

Municipal bonds, aka Munis, are debt obligations issued by state and local government entities. Investors who seek capital preservation and a dependable income stream are the primary holders of munis. In bear markets, munis can offer additional yield over Treasury bonds, still maintain a high credit quality, and avoid the greater volatility present in the corporate bond or equity markets.

Munis are unique in a number of ways but most notably because of their tax status. Please note, munis come in taxable and tax-exempt formats but any reference to munis in this article refers to tax-exempt bonds.

Because of their tax status, evaluating munis involves an extra step to make them comparable to other fixed income assets which are not tax-exempt. When comparing a muni to a Treasury, corporate, mortgage backed security, or any asset for that matter, muni investors must adjust the yield to a taxable equivalent yield. As a simple example, if you are in a 40% tax bracket and evaluating a muni bond yielding 2%, the taxable equivalent yield would be 3.33% (2.00% / (1-40%). It is this yield that should be used to equate it to other fixed income securities.

Negative “Tax” Convexity Matters

Thus far, everything we have mentioned is relatively straight-forward. Less well-understood is the effect of the tax rate on muni bonds with different prices and coupons. Before diving into tax rates, let’s first consider duration. Duration is a measure that provides the price change that would occur for a given change in yield. For instance, a bond with a duration of 3.0 should move approximately 3% in price for every 1% change in yield.

While a very useful measure to help quantify risk and compare bonds with different characteristics, duration changes as yields change. Convexity measures the non-linear change in price for changes in yield. Convexity helps us estimate duration for a given change in yield.

For most fixed rate bonds without options attached, convexity is a minor concern. Convexity in the traditional sense is a complex topic and not of primary importance for this article. If you would like to learn more about traditional convexity, please contact us.

Munis, like most bonds, have a small amount of negative convexity. However, because of their tax status, some muni bonds have, what we call, an additional layer of negative tax convexity. To understand this concept, we must first consider the complete tax implications of owning munis.

The holder of the muni bond receives a stream of coupons and ultimately his or her invested principal back at par ($100). The coupons are tax free, however, if the bond is sold prior to maturity, a taxable capital gain may occur.

The table below illustrates three hypothetical muni bonds identical in structure and credit quality. We use a term of 1 year to make the math as simple as possible.

In the three sample bonds, note how prices vary based on the range of coupons. Bond A has the lowest coupon but compensates investors with $2.41 ($100-$97.59) of price appreciation at maturity (the bond pays $100 at maturity but is currently priced at $97.59). Conversely, Bond C has a higher coupon, but docks the holder $2.41 in principal at maturity.

For an uninformed investor, choosing between the three bonds is not as easy as it may appear. Because of the discounted price on bond A, the expected price appreciation ($2.41) of Bond A is taxable and subject to the holder’s ordinary income tax rate. The appropriate tax rate is based on a De minimis threshold test discussed in the addendum. Top earners in this tax bracket pay approximately 40%.

Given the tax implication, we recalculate the yield to maturity for Bond A and arrive at a net yield-to-maturity after taxes of 4% (2.50% + (2.50 *(1-.40). Obviously, 4% is well below the 5% yield to maturity offered by bonds B and C, which do not require a tax that Bond A does as they are priced at or above par. Working backwards, an investor choosing between the three bonds should require a price of 95.88 which leaves bond A with an after tax yield to maturity of 5% and on equal footing with bonds B and C.

Implications in a rising yield environment and the role of “tax” convexity

Assume you bought Bond B at par and yields surged 2.50% higher the next day. Using the bond’s stated duration of .988, one would expect Bond B’s price to decline approximately $2.47 (.988 * 2.5%) to $97.53. Based on the prior section, however, we know that is not correct due to the tax implications associated with purchasing a muni at a price below par. Since you purchased the bonds at par, the tax implication doesn’t apply to you, but it will if anyone buys the bond from you after the 2.5% rise in yields. Therefore, the price of a muni bond in the secondary market will be affected not just by the change in rates, but also the associated tax implications. Assuming the ordinary income tax rate, the price of Bond B should fall an additional $1.65 to $95.88.  This $1.65 of additional decline in Bond B’s price is the penalty we call negative tax convexity.

The graph below shows how +/- 2.50% shifts in interest rates affect the prices of bonds A, B, and C. The table below the graph quantifies the change in prices per the shocks. For simplicity’s sake, we assume a constant bond duration in this example.

It is negative tax convexity that should cause investors, all else being equal, to prefer bonds trading at a premium (such as bond C) over those trading at par or a discount. It is also worth noting that the tax convexity plays an additional role in the secondary market for munis. Bonds with prices at or near par will be in less demand than bonds trading well above par if traders anticipate a near term rise in yields that will shift the par bond to a discounted price.

Summary

Yields have fallen for the better part of the last thirty years, so muni investors have not had to deal with discounted bonds and their tax implications often. Because of this, many muni investors are likely unaware of negative tax convexity risk. As we highlighted in the table, the gains in price when yields fall are relatively equal for the three bonds but the negative deviation in price in a rising yield environment is meaningful. Given this negative divergence, we recommend that you favor higher coupon/ higher priced munis. If you currently own lower priced munis, it may be worth swapping them for higher priced (higher coupon) bonds.


Addendum: De minimis

The tax code contains a provision for munis called the de minimis rule. This rule establishes the proper tax rate to apply to capital appreciation. The following clip from Charles Schwab’s Bond Insights provides a good understanding of the rule.

The de minimis rule

The de minimis rule says that for bonds purchased at a discount of less than 0.25% for each full year from the time of purchase to maturity, gains resulting from the discount are taxed as capital gains rather than ordinary income. Larger discounts are taxed at the higher income tax rate.

Imagine you wanted to buy a discount muni that matured in five years at $10,000. The de minimis threshold would be $125 (10,000 x 0.25% x five years), putting the dividing line between the tax rates at $9,875 (the par value of $10,000, minus the de minimis threshold of $125).

For example, if you paid $9,900 for that bond, your $100 price gain would be taxed as a capital gain (at the top federal rate of 23.8%, that would be $23.80). If you received a bigger discount and paid $9,500, your $500 price gain would be taxed as ordinary income (at the top federal rate of 39.6%, that would be $198).

It is important to note that some bonds are issued at prices below par. Such bonds, called original issue discount (OID), use the original offering price and not par as the basis to determine capital gains. If you buy a bond with an OID of $98 at a price of $97.50, you will only be subject to $0.50 (the difference between the OID price and the market price) of capital gains or ordinary income tax.

Tips To Consider If You Are At Risk Of Getting A Severance Package

With the current economic expansion already extremely long, even by historical standards, there is a rising risk that record low unemployment most likely won’t stay that way forever. 

Could your job be at risk when the next recession comes?

Severance packages are popular when companies seek to reduce workforce, especially older workers. According to Lee Hecht Harrison and Compensation Resources Inc. in their 2017-2018 Severance & Separation Benefits Benchmark Study of over 350 senior HR leaders at U.S. companies, 88% of companies pay severance.

Seeking to accept a severance package is more than a financial decision, there’s an emotional process about to arise. It’s one thing to prepare for retirement; to be placed suddenly in a situation where retirement or a possible dramatic shift in employment is thrust upon you, is quite another.

However, emotions need to be placed on the backburner until a financial decision is made. In most cases, you’ll have at least 21 days to do your homework. You’ll need the time to thoroughly understand the severance agreement especially if it includes a non-compete clause if planning to return to the workforce in a similar role.

For those who have accepted a severance package, what’s next?

The process can feel intimidating.

Don’t worry.

We’re here to help you make sense of it.

There are several points to consider:

Severance pay tax timing.

Depending on how severance pay is administered, it could be best to have it paid out over several years to avoid a big tax hit. A lump sum may push you into a higher tax bracket and perhaps trigger greater capital gain liability and   the Medicare surtax. Best to consult your tax advisor and then your employer’s HR department to determine whether this is a viable alternative. Naturally, working through your budget to make sure this strategy makes sense, is important.

Maximize your Health Savings Account contribution.

If you have a high-deductible medical plan and don’t require the cash for living expenses, consider maximizing your contributions to your company health savings account before your severance date. A HSA payroll deduction is pre-tax, grows tax deferred and for qualified expenses can be withdrawn free of tax. The family contribution limit for 2019 is $7,000. The maximum contribution limit for individuals is $3,500. Those over 55 are allowed an additional $1,000 catch-up contribution.

Lump sum or pension annuity: the decision is a personal one.

Don’t be pressured. Depending on the viability of the pension, current age, health, the direction of interest rates, family longevity, the intention to leave a legacy to family and the current state of your finances, an objective Certified Financial Planner can head you in the right direction. There are several ways to rebuild or re-create a pension for living expenses in retirement. However, sometimes taking the pension annuity is the most appropriate choice.

 

Retirement plan rollover or not.

Most likely the wisest decision is to roll over your retirement plan proceeds into a self-directed individual retirement account held with a full-service financial firm or registered investment advisor. You’ll command a greater selection of investment choices and hopefully lower costs. If younger than 59 ½ (at least 55 years old), and require distributions from your employer retirement account, then it’s best to leave the plan with the company and avoid the 10% early-distribution penalty. This withdrawal provision is NOT available for IRA accounts. A fiduciary or a professional who places your interests first can help you assess the best option.

Stock option exercise strategy considered.

A strategy to exercise company stock options should consider taxes, expiration dates and total net worth invested in the stock of your employer. We recommend no greater than 10% of your liquid net worth tied up in the company stock. Also, you must be sensitive to post-termination stock option rules, especially for vested options. Companies are known to strictly uphold termination deadlines. Exercise them within the stated window or leave money on the table.

What is this process called NUA. Is it right for me?

Have you accumulated company stock in a company retirement plan? You may have the option to complete an in-kind distribution of the shares into a non-retirement account. A ‘net unrealized appreciation’ tax strategy can be especially desirable if the company stock has appreciated significantly.         Through this process, the stock is distributed and taxed as ordinary income at its original value or cost basis. From there, the shares are held in a brokerage account and not taxed until sold. At that time, you’ll pay long-term capital gain rates on additional appreciation.  A qualified tax professional or financial planner can crunch the numbers and help you best understand the pros, cons and the mechanics of this process.

Healthcare coverage including COBRA.

A common mistake for those who are eligible for Medicare is to sign up for COBRA coverage (which extends group health coverage insurance with higher costs) and postpone taking Part B Medicare insurance. Keep in mind, COBRA is not considered qualified group health insurance coverage for Medicare purposes. If you do not sign up during the Part B 7-month initial enrollment period, you will be charged a late enrollment penalty of 10% of the Part B premium for every 12 months you go without coverage. This penalty is assessed for as long as you have Part B (the rest of your life!).

Don’t forget unemployment benefits.

Yes, if your severance is due to workforce reduction you may be eligible to collect unemployment benefits. Most states prohibit individuals from receiving unemployment benefits while receiving severance pay. Chapter 207 of the Texas Labor Code disqualifies unemployment benefits while receiving most forms of severance pay. However, it’s worth it to apply for benefits with the Texas Workforce Commission to make the determination.

For a severance kit assessment and expanded information about the points outlined here, please contact us at RIA Advisors to discuss your personal situation.