Tag Archives: chart patterns

Why Bitcoin May Be On The Verge Of A Powerful Move

After its powerful surge in late-2017 and stunning plunge in early-2018, Bitcoin’s volatility has died down significantly as it settles into a narrowing range just above its key $6,000 support level. This narrowing pattern appears to be a descending triangle, which has very bearish implications if the cryptocurrency breaks below the key $6,000 support level in a convincing manner with high volume. A decisive break to the upside, however, would increase the probability of further bullish action. Either way, when a market narrows to a fine point like Bitcoin is, it typically indicates that a volatile move is likely ahead upon a final breakout or breakdown.

Daily Bitcoin Chart

The weekly Bitcoin chart puts this descending triangle pattern into perspective a bit better:

Weekly Bitcoin Chart

Bitcoin volatility is at unusually low levels according to Bollinger BandWidth (a volatility indicator), which means that there is a high probability of a strong move soon:

Bitcoin Volatility

I will be watching closely for a breakout or breakdown to confirm this descending triangle pattern.

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Pennant Patterns Are Forming Everywhere In The Markets

Since plunging two weeks ago, many financial markets have been treading water as market participants digest the recent developments and try to determine what comes next. From a technical analysis perspective, pennant patterns or flag patterns (both are considered to be continuation patterns) may be forming in a variety of different financial markets. These patterns often happen after a major move as traders take a pause to catch their breath. A strong breakout with high volume in the direction of the original trend is necessary to confirm the end of the pennant pattern and the resumption of the primary trend.

This chart shows a typical pennant pattern (via Investopedia.com): pennant

The bellwether S&P 500 may be forming a pennant pattern:

SP500

The Dow may also be:Dow
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 may also be:

Nasdaq

The 10 Year note price may also be forming a pennant pattern. Its decline (which corresponds with higher bond yields) has been contributing to the stock market’s bearish action lately. If the possible pennant pattern is confirmed to the downside, it would be another bearish omen for stocks (and vice versa). 10 Year Note

The VIX or Volatility Index (a fear gauge for the U.S. stock market) may also be forming a pennant pattern. If the VIX breaks out to the upside, it would give a bearish signal for stocks (and vice versa). VIX

It’s not just the U.S. markets – Japan’s Nikkei 225 may also be forming a pennant: Nikkei

Germany’s DAX stock market index too: DAX

And so is the European stock market index: Euro Stoxx 50

Please be aware that this commentary is not a prediction. These patterns need to be confirmed one way or another by a breakout with strong volume. If the stock indices break to the downside, it would be extremely concerning after the bearish action that occurred in early-October.