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CORE STRATEGY
The core strategy consists of holdings that are based on market fundamentals, valuations, and long-term market trends. These are holding that should be considered “long-term” investments and should primarily track the benchmark index over time. The turnover of the portfolio should be extremely low with the exception of rebalancing periods due to market gyrations.
TACTICAL STRATEGY
The tactical strategy consists of holdings which based on the short- to intermediate-term trends of the market. As macro-economic, monetary and fiscal policy, and investor psychology impacts markets, the holdings in the tactical strategy will shift to take advantage of market rotations. Importantly, this portion of the portfolio can move to all cash if needed to reduce risk in the event of a market downturn.
FIXED INCOME
The fixed income strategy is designed to both take advantage of changes in interest rate and inflation expectations, but also deliver a lower degree of volatility to the overall portfolio. The primary focus of the fixed-income portfolio is to protect capital, generate income, and lower overall portfolio volatility.
0% Bonds
20% Bonds
40% Bonds
60% Bonds
80% Bonds
100% Bonds
Commentary (as of 04/12/24)
Last week, we discussed the current bullish trend’s ongoing, mind-numbing, narrow channel. We have suggested there was little to worry about until the market violates the 20-DMA. That “crack” to this “unstoppable” bullish rally was confirmed on Friday. As we noted last week:
“However, as we previously noted, just because the market breaks the 20-DMA does not mean we must take immediate action. What we need to see is a confirmation of that break with either a failed retest of previous support or a further decline. If the market is lower on Monday and takes out Thursday’s low, as shown, this would confirm the break of support and suggest lower prices. The 50-DMA will quickly become the next significant support level.”
As shown, the market broke below the previous Thursday’s low on Friday after failing a retest of the previous support at the 20-DMA. This turns the previous 20-DMA into resistance and makes the 50-DMA key support over the next few days. (Note: If the market makes a confirmed break of the 50-DMA, the 100- and 200-DMAs become the next logical targets.)
The market is oversold enough for a bounce early next week that investors should use to make further adjustments to portfolio allocations. Crucially, this signal DOES NOT mean to “sell everything and go to cash.”
Continue to use the model allocations above to balance your holdings accordingly. As we recommended all of last year, continue to underweight small/mid-capitalization stocks, as well as with International and Emerging Markets. If we begin to see relative performance improving in those areas we will make a recommendation to increase those exposures. However, outside of brief spurts of performance, the longer-term holding returns for these markets remain dismal.
For now, continue to remain predominately weighted in US Large Cap (S&P 500) markets. Money flows, due to passive investing, will continue to keep those stocks elevated.
As we get further into the New Year, we will be able to better recognize where money and allocations are rotating to and make further recommendations for there.
If you are close to retirement or are concerned about a pickup in volatility, there is nothing wrong with being very underweight equities. It is better to be safe than to give up dreams of retirement to rebuild lost wealtOn “
Model Performance
Model performance is a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the weighting changes made each week in the newsletter. Such is strictly for informational and educational purposes only, and one should not rely on it for any reason. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Use at your own risk and peril.
