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Selected Portfolio Position Review: 04-03-19

Written by Lance Roberts | Apr, 3, 2019

Each week we produce a chart book of 10 of the current positions we have in our equity portfolio. Specifically, we are looking at the positions which warrant attention, or are providing an opportunity, or need to be sold.

While the portfolios are designed to have longer-term holding periods, we understand that things do not always go the way we plan. This monitoring process keeps us focused on capital preservation and long-term returns.

HOW TO READ THE CHARTS

There are four primary components to each chart:

  • The price chart is contained within the shaded area which represents 2-standard deviations above and below the short-term moving average.  
  • The Over Bought/Over Sold indicator is in orange at the top.
  • The Support/Resistance line (green) is the longer-term moving average which also acts as a trailing stop in many cases.
  • The Buy / Sell is triggered when the green line is above the red line (Buy) or vice-versa (Sell).

When the price of a position is at the top of the deviation range, overbought and on a buy signal it is generally a good time to take profits. When that positioning is reversed it is often a good time to look to add to a winning position or looking for an opportunity to exit a losing position.

With this basic tutorial let’s get to the sector analysis.

NOTE: We rebalanced our equity portfolio yesterday, so some positions which were overweight were sold down and underweight positions were brought up to portfolio weight. I am reviewing a few of the actions here. The equity portfolio will be update today to reflect the changes.

ABT – Abbott Laboratories

  • ABT has been in a strongly bullish trend as defensive stocks continue to perform.
  • Currently on a buy signal, we sold a small piece of the position to take profits and reduce the holding back to model weight
  • The overall trend remains very positive.
  • Stop-loss set at $73

AEP – American Electric Power

  • Utilities have been strong performers overall.
  • We increased the position to our target portfolio weight and have tightened up our stop losses.
  • Stop is moved up to $80

MSFT – Microsoft

  • After MSFT broke out to a new high and flipped onto a buy signal we have increased our holding to target portfolio weight.
  • Fundamentals remain strong and this remains a leader in the industry.
  • Stop has been moved up to $112.50

VZ – Verizon

  • After VZ broke out of its consolidation it rallied to new highs.
  • We trimmed our position back to our portfolio target weight to lock in some profits.
  • Stop is moved up to $56

XOM – Exxon Mobil

  • After a strong run off the recent lows we are locking in some gains by reducing the position back to target portfolio weights.
  • We continue to hold our position and will look to add back to it in the future.
  • Stop-loss is moved up to $77

CMCSA – Comcast Communications

  • CMCSA recently broke out above resistance and maintained its buy signal.
  • Performance continues to be strong so we increased our position to a full portfolio target weight.
  • However, we are tightening up stops to $38.50

COST – Costco Wholesale

  • After some initial concerns with COST, it has come roaring back and set new highs and flipped onto a buy signal.
  • We are taking profits and reducing the position back to portfolio weight for now.
  • Stop-loss moved up to $220

UTX – United Technologies

  • UTX has been a good performer for us since we bought it back in January.
  • The recent break above resistance, retest and breakout allow us to increase exposure to full portfolio weight.
  • Stop-loss is moved up to $125

NSC – Norfolk Southern

  • NSC has broken out to new highs and flipped back onto a buy signal.
  • We remain very bullish on the stock but have taken profits and reduced the position back to portfolio weight.
  • Stop loss is currently at $182.50

AAPL – Apple Inc.

  • Apple has now finally broken back above both its 50- and 200-dma and flipped onto a buy signal.
  • With that we are increasing our exposure to full portfolio weight for now but also tightening up our stop losses as well.
  • Stop-loss is moved up to $170

Talk with an Advisor & Planner Today!

lance_sig

Lance Roberts is a Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for RIA Advisors. He is also the host of “The Lance Roberts Podcast” and Chief Editor of the “Real Investment Advice” website and author of “Real Investment Daily” blog and “Real Investment Report“. Follow Lance on Facebook, Twitter, Linked-In and YouTube

2019/04/03
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