Turning Point Analytics utilizes a time-tested, real-world strategy that optimizes the clients entry and exit points and adds alpha. TPA defines each stock as Trend or Range to identify actionable inflection points.
In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. – Benjamin Graham
S&P 1500+ DAILY SNAPSHOT COMMENTS & CHARTS Wednesday, March 02, 2022
Todays TPA Trend-Range Report included below. TPA Trend-Range Strategy explained below.
Links for Explanations of Technical terms at the bottom of the report
SELL
PAYX fell below its solid 2-year uptrend line in January. Then PAYX failed on 2 separate occasions to regain its trend (zoom chart). PAYX rallied over 200% from the March 2020 lows to the December 2021 highs., but its trajectory has changed. The weekly chart reveals that long-term support is far below Tuesdays close; near 85, which was the 2021 breakout level.
RRG analysis shows that PAYX has moved into the Weakening quadrant, losing relative strength and momentum, and headed toward the Lagging quadrant.
PAYX Paychex Inc. 117.5500 Stop = 125.1908 Target = 88.1625
PAYX – zoom
PAYX – weekly
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) explanation video
RRG written explanation
RRG of PAYX-TECH
SELL
ADP fell below its 14-month uptrend line in January and has been unable to recover for 6 weeks (zoom chart). ADP is now solidly below the long-term uptrend and vulnerable to continued losses (weekly chart).
RRG analysis shows that ADP has moved quickly into the Lagging quadrant. The distance from the RRG center provides confirmation that this negative move is real and will be sustained.
ADP Automatic Data Processing Inc. 202.3100 Stop = 212.4255 Target = 171.9635
ADP – zoom
ADP – weekly
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) explanation video
RRG written explanation
RRG analysis ADP-TECH
SELL
ACN moved below its 22-month uptrend line in January and then confirmed that move in February. ACN is now solidly below its long-term uptrend and moving lower. A new 2-month downtrend line is in place, which should guide ACN lower. The weekly chart reveals that long-term support is 30% below Tuesdays close.
ACN is historically overvalued. The current PE of 32 is 23% higher than the 10-year average PE of 26.
RRG analysis shows that ACN has moved quickly into the Lagging quadrant. The distance from the RRG center provides confirmation that this negative move is real and will be sustained.
ACN Accenture plc 311.3500 Stop = 331.5878 Target = 233.5125
ACN – zoom
ACN – weekly
ACN historic PE
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) explanation video
RRG written explanation
RRG analysis of ACN – TECH
TPA TREND-RANGE STRATEGY (see explanation below)
TPA TREND-RANGE REPORT (New and improved!)
TPA TREND-RANGE STRATEGY EXPLAINED
Alerts:
- Uptrend stocks trading below short term moving averages:
- Possible buy at uptrend support (chart 1)
- Possible sell if medium-term trend break (chart 2)
- Downtrend stocks trading above short-term moving averages
- Possible sell at downtrend resistance (chart 3)
- Possible buy if medium-term trend break (chart 4)
- Range stocks (low trend strength) at the top or bottom 10% of their 2 STD DEV Bollinger Band
- Possible buy at bottom of range (chart 5)
- Possible sell at top of range (chart 6)
Medium-term Trend Strength determined by DMI ADX
Uptrend trend strength & DMI+ > DMI-
Downtrend trend strength & DMI- > DMI+
Range low trend strength
Actionable stocks fit one of the 6 TPA charts at the bottom of this report
TPA looks first to Trend-Range for actionable ideas. Other variables must also be examined including, but not confined to, TPAs ongoing macro investment themes, relative strength compared to the market, sector, and subsector, overbought or oversold characteristics, other technical patterns that may exist, patterns that involve fundamentals or EPS surprise, longer-term support and resistance levels, and longer-term uptrends and downtrend lines.
CLICK ON LINKS BELOW FOR TECHNICAL INDICATOR EXPLANATIONS:
ASCENDING – DESCENDING TRIANGLE
DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT INDEX (DMI)
MACD-MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE-DIVERGENCE
RELATIVE STRENGTH & PEER STOCK PERFORMANCE
SUPPORT, RESISTANCE, BREAKOUT, BREAKDOWN
Visit TPA at https://www.turningpointanalyticsllc.com/
ALWAYS REMEMBER: No strategy exists in a vacuum always evaluate the relevant sector & market.
Over 80% of portfolio performance is determined by sector and market forces (Ibbotson & Kaplan study January/Febuary2000)
Turning Point Analytics Disclaimer
Turning Point Analytics (TPA) is only one of many tools that an investor should use to make a final investment decision. TPA is an overlay on top of a clients good fundamental or macro analysis. TPA does not create or provide fundamental analysis. The information in this communication may include technical analysis. Technical analysis is a discipline that studies the past trading history of a security while trying to forecast future price action. Technical analysis does not consider the underlying fundamentals of the security in question and it does not provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. Investors should not rely on technical analysis alone while making an investment decision. Before making an investment decision, investors should consider reviewing all publicly available information regarding the security in question, including, but not limited to, the underlying fundamentals of the security and other information which is available in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information and analysis contained in reports provided by TPA are copyrighted and may not be duplicated or redistributed for any reason without the express written consent of TPA. The information in this communication is for institutional or sophisticated investors only. By accepting this communication, the recipient agrees not to forward, and/or copy the information to any other person, except as permitted, or required by law. TPA does not guarantee accuracy or completeness. TPA is a publisher of technical research and has no investment banking or advisory relationship with any company mentioned in any report. Reports are neither a solicitation to buy nor an offer to sell securities. Past performance is in no way indicative of future results. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. TPA will provide, upon request, the details of any past recommendations. TPAs analysis and recommendations should not be used as the sole reason to buy or sell any security. TPA may compensate brokers and intermediaries for sales and marketing services. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities and/or currencies. The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Statements, data, and analysis made by TPA or in its publications, are made as of the date stated and are subject to change without notice. TPA and/or its officers and employees may, from time to time acquire, hold, or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. Upon request, TPA will furnish specific information in this regard. TPA will not be held liable for losses caused by conditions and/or events that are beyond TPAs control including, but not limited to war, strikes, natural disasters, new government restrictions, market fluctuations, and communications disruptions.
