2,247 results found
Daily Market Commentary
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, asks- “What time is it in the cycle? Now that we are 17 months into a bull market cycle, it’s worth asking how much life there is left. How long can this broadening bull continue?” To help assess how much time may be left, Jurrien shares a […]
Daily Market Commentary
We recently published Part Two of a series comparing inflation in the 1970s to today. Part Two discusses the price wage spiral that helped fuel higher prices in the 1970s. To wit- “In the 1970s, workers demanded higher wages to offset the rising cost of living. Simultaneously, business owners, having to pay higher salaries, responded […]
Economics
In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply. The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a “soft landing” is at hand. However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought. To understand why such is the […]
Stock valuations provide a gauge of the actual price of a stock. Unlike most goods and services, the dollar price of a stock doesn’t tell us how rich or cheap it is. What matters are stock valuations or the multiple investors are willing to pay for earnings, sales, cashflows, or a host of other income-related […]
Invest
“Bullish measures are getting really bullish.” This is an interesting statement, given how “bearish” sentiment was in 2022. As I noted then: “Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the prevailing bias regarding investing. Such is known as contrarian investing. One of the most famous […]
Invest
Bullish sentiment has surged as the “Fear Of Missing Out,” or FOMO, kicked in in recent weeks. It is somewhat interesting to write this blog, given that we discussed the exact opposite roughly one year ago. “Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish.” – May 10, 2022 As I noted then, one of […]
Trading Bitcoin since its inception has been like riding a roller coaster. In January 2015, Bitcoin was trading at $164. By May 2021, Bitcoin traded near $65,000 but then fell sharply to $30,000 in just a few months. It rebounded to a new high of $70,000 in six months, only to fall below $20,000 earlier […]
Invest
Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish. One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the prevailing bias regarding investing. Such is known as contrarian investing. One of the most famous contrarian investors is Howard Marks, who once stated: “Resisting – and thereby achieving success as a contrarian – isn’t easy. Things combine […]
Invest
The surge in bond yields suggests that we are nearing the ideal entry point to buy longer-duration bonds for capital appreciation and portfolio protection. Such isn’t the first time we have made this call. In December 2018, we wrote why Jeff Gundlach was likely incorrect about bond yields topping 6%. Here is the conclusion to […]