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Daily Market Commentary
It appears President Trump set a test for the market to see what investors would think of him firing Jerome Powell. The bond and stock markets provided a swift answer to Trump’s test. The test originated inconspicuously from a post on X by Florida Republican Anna Paulina Luna, who had been on the phone with […]
Newsletter
The market continued to trade in a back-and-forth pattern this week as it consolidated recent gains. Negative news headlines from the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict continue to push and pull traders daily. Notably, the market held support at the 20-DMA, keeping the bullish trend intact. However, the market did break below the "rising wedge" pattern, increasing the potential for a further consolidation to work off the current overbought conditions.
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Daily Market Commentary
Initial and continuing jobless claims are as close to a real-time proxy on employment as we have. Thus, while they do not hold the same importance to the markets as the monthly BLS data, they are worth tracking. Moreover, when trends are changing, as they may be now, their importance increases. The two graphs below […]
Newsletter
The market's bullish trend continued this week, and it is rapidly approaching all-time highs. However, an Israeli strike on Iran early Friday morning sent stocks tumbling at the open, but as of midday, as I am writing this report, most of the initial decline has fully recovered. We noted that a correction or consolidation process is needed to work off some short-term overbought conditions. But, as seen on Friday, any pullback is quickly bought by investors chasing the market in the near term.
Newsletter
Despite a weakening unemployment report, a spat between President Trump and Elon Musk, a resurgence in the Ukraine/Russia conflict, and remaining tariff uncertainty between China, Europe, and the U.S., the markets continued their bullish ways this past week. Notably, the market broke out of the ongoing consolidation process that has been in place since May 12th. The good news is that bullish breakouts confirm bullish momentum and suggest markets will trade higher into the next resistance level. That next resistance level is at 6100, the previous topping process before the March and April decline.
Newsletter
Most notably, this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA. The pullback to that previous broken resistance level and subsequent bounce highly suggests that the April correction is complete and that market control returns to the Bulls. As such, there is very little resistance between current levels and all-time highs. However, as noted last week, with the markets still overbought on a momentum basis, further consolidation will be unsurprising before an advance to new highs occurs. With the MACD sell signal triggered and money flows declining, another test of the 200-DMA next week would be unsurprising.
Newsletter
Several times this past week, we discussed that the market was due for a corrective pullback after reaching more overbought conditions. On Friday, the market gave way early in the morning on fresh comments by President Trump instituting 25% tariffs on Apple (AAPL) on any product not manufactured in the U.S. and 50% tariffs on the EU, as trade talks are not going well. As is always the case, amid a bull run, sellers are still unwilling to sell over fear of "missing out" on rising asset prices. It takes some "event" to bring sellers into the market, which we saw early on Friday.
Newsletter
This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as shown, the markets are reaching decently overbought levels after being extremely oversold. This suggests that at least for now, the "easy money" has been made. With the market above the 200, and above the 50 and 20-DMA, pullbacks should be between 5600 and 5800. Investors can use such a pullback to increase portfolio equity exposures and reduce hedges accordingly. Conversely, 5000 to 5200 becomes the next critical target if those lower supports are violated. However, such would require some unexpected event to unfold.