Forward Guidance: R.I.P
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his first major public appearance, a panel at the ECB’s annual forum in Portugal, to formally bury one of the Fed’s most relied-upon tools of the last 25 years: forward guidance. Warsh could not be […]
Earnings Growth Today But At What Cost?
A recent article by the Wall Street Journal entitled Turbocharged Earnings Are Pushing Stocks Higher. There’s a Catch raises an important issue for investors of the megacap AI-tech companies. Wall Street analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to top 20% […]
May Inflation Print: Why the 4.2% Headline Is an Oil Story
What a week. A rocket company became the largest public offering in history. The May inflation print landed mid-week as the hottest reading in three years. And the whole tape spent five sessions hostage to a single question about the Persian Gulf. When the dust settled, the S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,431.46, up 0.65% on the week. That rally clawed back roughly a quarter of the prior Friday's brutal 2.64% plunge to 7,383.74. The Nasdaq added 0.70%, and the Dow gained 0.66%. Small caps kept doing their 2026 thing, with the Russell 2000 leading on the upside again.
A Supply Tsunami Is Coming
The coming wave of equity supply we detailed in The IPO Boom is growing. Last week, Alphabet executed an $80 billion secondary equity offering to fund AI infrastructure, including a $10 billion private placement to Berkshire Hathaway. Now, the Financial […]
Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next?
The melt-up finally took a breather. After nine straight winning weeks, the S&P 500 closed lower, finishing Friday at 7,384, down about 2.6% on the week and roughly 3% below Tuesday's record high of 7,609.78. The headline number buries the real story, because underneath it the market staged the sharpest rotation we've seen all year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tearing to a fresh record near 51,562 on Thursday even as the Nasdaq logged its worst day in nearly eight months. So the tape didn't fall apart. It rotated.
The IPO Boom And Its Impact On Markets
The headlines surrounding the SpaceX IPO seem mainly focused on how high the stock will go. There is a more important question stemming from the SpaceX IPO and other large deals that few seem to be asking: where will the […]
Stronger Dollar Trade: The Most Unexpected Macro Bet (Part 2)
Wall Street has piled into the dollar debasement story; however, as is always the case, when everyone is on one side of the trade, the other side becomes more compelling. In Part 1, we explored why Dollar Dominance Remains Alive […]
Parabolic Semiconductor Rally: What Breaks The Trade?
The headline tape made fresh history. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.06, finishing up 1.43% on the week and posting its ninth consecutive weekly gain. That's the longest weekly winning streak since 2024, and only the 5th time since 1965 that has occurred. While markets previously saw weakness following such streaks, the 24- and 52-week outcomes were primarily positive, except in 1989.
SpaceX IPO: Should I Buy It, Or Wait?
The week opened on the back foot and ended at a record high. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,473.47, up 0.37% on the day and 0.9% for the week, notching its eighth straight winning week. That's the longest weekly win streak since late 2023.